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The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

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Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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The Federal Reserve banks are not one in the same as the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. That's why they have different names. It's Board of Governors that determines the interest rate. It is a policy making part of the federal government. https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed46.html > The Federal Reserve System is supervised by the Board of Governors. Located in Washington, D.C., the…

[deleted]

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#42

"Some home builders are so desperate to attract interest they are offering agents the chance to win Louis Vuitton handbags or Super Bowl tickets with round-trip airfare, if their clients buy a home." That seems like a serious conflict of interests.

I believe one of the first few chapters of the four-hour workweek talk about this exact conflict of interest. Blew my mind when I first read it many years ago.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#43
post #35
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't quite the same, because these publications do offer their content for free... to the Google indexer. So they're kind of trying to have it both ways. That said, I agree with the broader point: if you value something that has a price on it then you really ought to pay for it at some point. You can object to anything you want ("there are still ads!", "why can't I pay per article?"), but it's all besides the poi…

I'm not sure, but some paid software is provided for free to some reviews or other people... By the same line of thought... Is fine to pirate them?

Fair point. I'm not really sure it's a comparison worth exploring too deeply as there are just too many differences. For instance, what's the pirated program equivalent of viewing just one article?

I think (hope?) most people here would agree that a hack providing you with a full WSJ subscription would be inappropriate. But many are fine with a single article. Perhaps that's hypocritical, I dunno.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#44
post #3

https://outline.com/ZCPPvZ

Why does HN allow intentional bypass of paywalls? It’s no different than providing links to pirated software. On the one hand, we complain about aggressive advertising while simultaneously doing everything possible to ensure publications don’t earn any money.

Well, an alternative solution would be to ban all links to paywall content.

Are you sure that this is what you'd want?

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#45
post #35
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't quite the same, because these publications do offer their content for free... to the Google indexer. So they're kind of trying to have it both ways. That said, I agree with the broader point: if you value something that has a price on it then you really ought to pay for it at some point. You can object to anything you want ("there are still ads!", "why can't I pay per article?"), but it's all besides the poi…

I'm not sure, but some paid software is provided for free to some reviews or other people... By the same line of thought... Is fine to pirate them?

If the reviewer normally reviews free games, and it was sent to the reviewer with a stated MSRP of $0, then it is misleading to try to charge everyone else after they read the review.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[removed]

The Federal Reserve banks are not one in the same as the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. That's why they have different names. It's Board of Governors that determines the interest rate. It is a policy making part of the federal government. https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed46.html > The Federal Reserve System is supervised by the Board of Governors. Located in Washington, D.C., the…

I have updated both of my comments in this thread. Thanks for pointing out my misunderstanding between the Federal Reserve’s Board Of Governors and the Federal Reserve Bank entities they oversee.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Federal Reserve (which orchestrates interest rates to manage inflation and achieve full employment [two of its mandates]) is not (edit: a branch) of the US government, and does not set government policy. Edit: This is incorrect. The Board Of Governors who set interest rates is a part of the federal govrnment as an agency (accountable to Congress), the individual Federal Reserve Banks are not.

While it is technically true that the Fed is privately owned, it's not how it runs in actuality. The Fed chairman meets with presidents regularly, and many other politicians. The president also nominates the Chair of the Fed. So hardly independent [1]. [1] https://mises.org/library/myth-fed-independence

Based on how pissed off Trump is that Powell is raising rates, I would say the Fed Chairman is pretty independent.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#49
I just built a home. One thing I noticed: Some builders are really stupid about reading the market and knowing what people are willing to pay. They load homes up with luxury features and then wonder why their homes sit vacant.

My builder has a vacant home in my neighborhood. He ran Ethernet to all rooms, and put in other silly features, and just couldn't comprehend why his price was too high.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compounded with the fact that median wages haven't increased that much the last 30 years. Median income has gone up by about 150% (to 2.5x) in nominal terms between 1986 and 2016. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N

Why look at nominal though? Inflation adjusted makes a lot more sense to me, especially when we're talking about household income. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N The story here is quite different - only a 19% increase, and much more unstable over the years. Most of the increase happened before 2000. Almost no change since then.

Two reasons:

1. Every idiotic meme about how goods X, Y, and Z have more than doubled in price while [real] wages haven't. I'm torn between thinking the meme creators are completely clueless or epic trolls.

2. There is a substantial linkage between nominal wages and nominal inflation, especially for limited, competitively bid goods (like housing).

Looking at median house prices https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA , it looks like they went up slightly more than median wages (2.85x vs 2.5x in 30 years), which I think is likely more than explained by today's lower than historical norms interest rates (increasing affordability). https://www.macrotrends.net/2604/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate...

Mortgage rates over 10% in 1988 and under 5% today means that 1988 houses were less affordable on 1988 wages than 2018 houses are on 2018 wages.

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