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The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

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Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#41

Post by GuiA »

aphextron wrote: post #5

It's been fascinating to watch Saudi influence wane over the last few years as this sinks in as the new reality. We live in a completely different power structure now from 20 years ago. They're certainly still obscenely rich, but the power they had over geopolitics via OPEC is effectively gone at this point due to tar sands, renewables, and natural gas.

Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum:

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashid_bin_Saeed_Al_Maktoum#De...

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#42

Post by macspoofing »

derekp7 wrote: post #24
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the next 20 years will bring, especially with the shift to electric vehicles.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

>However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids.

I disagree. I think hybrids are a dead-end. They don't help electric car adoption, rather they hinder it because they validate every criticism about electric cars. Part of the reason why Tesla got as big as it did is because it didn't feel the need to argue for electric cars on gasoline-car terms.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#43

Post by endorphone »

sgillen wrote: post #2

Looking at China and India, I forget how big the US actually is compared to an average country. Same goes for our abundant natural resources which we don’t really talk about much (in the media at least).

I'm curious what you mean relative to China. China is almost the same size as the US (10 million square kilometers) as the US, though of course normal distorted projections make the US look much larger.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#44

Post by gwbas1c »

chrisco255 wrote: post #26
derekp7 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

Why would gas pumps not be gradually replaced with charging points?

Because people will charge at their destinations or at home.

Think of it this way: You go on a long trip and need to stop for gas somewhere along the trip. Instead, you just plug in at your destination. That saves you a stop.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#45

Post by dekhn »

Daniel Yergin is an energy analyst who has written several good books on oil and energy, The Prize and The Quest. The Prize is a history explaning how to got to 1990. And The Quest explains how we got to 2011. By the end of The Quest, you will understand how we got to here. Why Russia is a major natural gas provider to Europe. Why Venezuela's economy is collapsing. Why Saudi Arabia may follow. And mostly importantly, why the US is now one of the top energy exporters in the world (TL;DR we have tons of resources and the capital and business structures to exploit them).

Right now the US seems to be using oil exports to weaken other countries, rather than banking the oil and exploiting it when supply starts to dry up. I also think that some methods aren't long-term a good idea.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#46

Post by jdpedrie »

melling wrote: post #37
derekp7 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

How much range do people need before there's no longer range anxiety? People used to complain about 200 miles not being enough then Tesla released 300 miles then they said that's not enough either.

Neither are enough. Until I can drive across the continent as conveniently as I could in the ICE car I have today, I'll be extremely reluctant to purchase an electric vehicle.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#47

Post by tim333 »

CompelTechnic wrote: post #30
tim333 wrote: post #28

There was an interesting article The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/01/opinion/the-next-financia... arguing: >...fracking could not have taken off so dramatically were it not for record low interest rates after the 2008 financial crisis. In other words, the Federal Reserve is responsible for the fracking boom. >Frackers haven’t proven that they can make money. “The industry ha…

If we are talking strictly about the economic measures going into a business decision, using (cheap QE) debt to finance capital expenditures was a good idea. The profit being made off of the capex justifies it well. It is not unsustainable in the sense of a business decision.

The article argues much of the industry may not be profitable on using normal accounting and:

>the public markets have been valuing fracking companies not based on a multiple of profits, the standard way of valuing a company, but rather according to a multiple of the acreage a company owns.

A bit like valuing dot coms on eyeballs rather than GAAP profits. It all depends on oil prices and the like I guess though.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#48

Post by oliveshell »

melling wrote: post #37
derekp7 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

How much range do people need before there's no longer range anxiety? People used to complain about 200 miles not being enough then Tesla released 300 miles then they said that's not enough either.

For me personally, 350-400 miles (in the worst case: with the A/C on full blast, up an incline, including frequent stopping and acceleration) would be a start.

But it’s also about about refueling (i.e. charging). Until a spot at a supercharger is as easy to come by as a gas station wherever you go, it won’t be the same. Not to mention having to wait 30+ minutes to charge, which can add up on a road trip.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#49

Post by patejam »

melling wrote: post #37
derekp7 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

How much range do people need before there's no longer range anxiety? People used to complain about 200 miles not being enough then Tesla released 300 miles then they said that's not enough either.

It's not about distance for me, really. It's about availability and convenience of fuel. Gas stations are EVERYWHERE and it takes 3 minutes to fuel. Electric fueling stations require route planning, and takes 30+ minutes to fuel.

For people who can get away with charging at home & work, it's fine. For people like me who do stuff like 170 mile trips to Tahoe often, I won't be able to have an electric car without "range anxiety" any time soon.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#50

Post by chocolatebunny »

2trill2spill wrote: post #39
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the next 20 years will bring, especially with the shift to electric vehicles.

Oil is not going away anytime soon. While there will be significantly more electric vehicles on the road in twenty years and gas and diesel vehicles will be much more efficient. There will still be millions and millions of vehicles burning gasoline and diesel. Plus that doesn't even factor in all the uses of oil outside of transportation and energy, for instance pharmaceuticals, plastics, nylon, polyester, asphalt, f…

How much more room for improvement is there in gas and diesel?
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