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Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

blogs.scientificamerican.com

41–50 of 91 posts

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#41
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did you choose such a biased source in the first place, then?

Not biased, so much; more like balanced. (Dare I say "fair and balanced"?) After going through my daily news feeds and perusing so many stories (so freakin' many!) about how climate change (or whatever) is going to kill us all soon enough, I also now routinely head over to WUWT to see what their take on the matter is. Some of what shows up there I think is crap, of course, but much of it is quite thoughtful and remar…

Um, the person who provided the link called it biased. I’m just commenting on the phrase I quoted.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#42
post #32

We should start talking about actions that contribute to global warming in a significant/active/systemic way as crimes against humanity. That is what they are. Executives and politicians need to know that that is how we will judge them in the future.

So every time you get in your car and start personally spewing excess CO2, that's a crime against humanity? Or you fire up your oil or gas furnace? Or you eat a burger or pretty much anything else produced by Big Ag? Or you build a concrete structure? And so on and so forth. As the old saying goes: "Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones."

Is there a recognized name for the fallacy southern_cross is using here?

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#43
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The science isn't over. There are plenty of things we don't know. But likewise there are things we do know. I know of no serious climate scientist who claims we understand the climate. But we still know that human activity is warming the globe at an unprecedented rate. The fossil burning industry has been handed a gift not by scientists overreaching but by systematically discrediting solid science. This is no differe…

We're in agreement regarding the utter seriousness of global warming, glad to hear. I do believe the main tasks are: adapting to the changes that are coming, taking care of those of us that will get displaced (which may mean moving to a green Sahara), and making sure we don't further worsen the problem. But in light of the prospecting that takes place all over (for example in Greenland and other areas made exploitabl…

No but climategate is exactly the type of pseudo-controversy that I was getting at. Read the reports: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_email_c...

No scientific misconduct. No fraud. But yes, concern over the public relations battle that scientists have been forced into. Would you rather scientists just concede that battle?

And again, they have been fighting that battle _without scientific misconduct_. There was no hiding of uncertainties, it's all there in the papers. There are very few fields of science where uncertainties are so well studied. The sentence in the NYT article you quote is simply not backed by the facts, and it is mistaking consensus for group-think.

Opposing requests for transparency (looking at raw code and data) is unfortunately all to common in science. The culture is shifting, but it's a result of things being generally messy. Often it takes considerable experience to reliably reach judgements on what the data/code outputs mean. And that's typically not well documented. I advocate for open science at my institute wherever I can. We're getting there.

One perfect example is the "hide the decline". Anyone with statistics training knows that "the decline" is perfectly consistent with the previous trend + fluctuations + data problems. It didn't challenge anything. It's also right there in the published papers. But of course if you want to put out press releases you can't assume your audience knows that, you need to communicate that fact. The part of the audience that understands that can read the papers just fine to figure out the details (they are not hard to read).

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#44
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did you choose such a biased source in the first place, then?

Not biased, so much; more like balanced. (Dare I say "fair and balanced"?) After going through my daily news feeds and perusing so many stories (so freakin' many!) about how climate change (or whatever) is going to kill us all soon enough, I also now routinely head over to WUWT to see what their take on the matter is. Some of what shows up there I think is crap, of course, but much of it is quite thoughtful and remar…

“Some of what shows up there I think is crap, of course, but much of it is quite thoughtful and remarkably clear-headed.”

This is a strange thing to say. By claiming X and not-X, it means precisely nothing, but it superficially sounds judicious.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#45
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not biased, so much; more like balanced. (Dare I say "fair and balanced"?) After going through my daily news feeds and perusing so many stories (so freakin' many!) about how climate change (or whatever) is going to kill us all soon enough, I also now routinely head over to WUWT to see what their take on the matter is. Some of what shows up there I think is crap, of course, but much of it is quite thoughtful and remar…

“Some of what shows up there I think is crap, of course, but much of it is quite thoughtful and remarkably clear-headed.” This is a strange thing to say. By claiming X and not-X, it means precisely nothing, but it superficially sounds judicious.

It's like the clearest description of confirmation bias: things that you agree with are thoughtful and remarkably clear-headed, others can just be ignored and don't reflect on the quality of the source. Avoiding confirmation bias would require one to give up on this attitude.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#46
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So every time you get in your car and start personally spewing excess CO2, that's a crime against humanity? Or you fire up your oil or gas furnace? Or you eat a burger or pretty much anything else produced by Big Ag? Or you build a concrete structure? And so on and so forth. As the old saying goes: "Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones."

Is there a recognized name for the fallacy southern_cross is using here?

It's called "Avoiding taking personal responsibility by trying to point the finger of blame at others." And it's something that children and immature adults often do.

For those who are so torn up about the situation, nothing's stopping you from finding a piece of cheap real estate out in the middle of nowhere (maybe by a nice stream or a lake), building a yurt or whatever and then just living off the land. That's the kind of thing our ancestors often had to do, and that's the kind of thing people in underdeveloped countries still often have to do. (Hence why they are called "underdeveloped countries".)

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#47
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If X was not happening, then why even say Y will happen? Consider this prediction: if Hillary Clinton (X) gets elected president in 2016, then 10% of the population in Libya will be killed by US bombing campaigns in 2017 (Y). Obviously X did not happen, so Y never occurred as a predicted result, but was Y ever a valid prediction? Y might be considered a valid prediction because Hillary Clinton intervened in Libya in…

Suppose someone is swimming nude in a cold lake. I predict that if they stay in the lake for 20 more minutes (that's X), they will get hypothermia (Y). They get out of the lake two minutes later, so X ends up not happening. Are you going to argue that my prediction was not correct? Or that it is a wild prediction? In the case of several of the ones you cited, they were based on an assumption that pollution levels wou…

You don't even need to use a hypothetical example, this is pretty much what happened to the ozone layer.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#48
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a recognized name for the fallacy southern_cross is using here?

It's called "Avoiding taking personal responsibility by trying to point the finger of blame at others." And it's something that children and immature adults often do. For those who are so torn up about the situation, nothing's stopping you from finding a piece of cheap real estate out in the middle of nowhere (maybe by a nice stream or a lake), building a yurt or whatever and then just living off the land. That's the…

So by your logic, because I have on occasion urinated outside in my backyard, where some small part of my urine will perhaps find its way to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, I cannot object to Victoria, BC's dumping of 21 million gallons a day of raw sewage into it without being a hypocrite?

Your argument is based on the assumption that if X and Y and Z all have a particular bad consequence, then X and Y and Z are all equally bad, with no consideration to how much of the bad consequence each has, or what other, good consequences each have.

That's not valid reasoning. I'm curious if it has a name.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#49

So the history of climate change goes something like: confusion about overall sign in the 1960's, mounting evidence for warming due to CO_2 in 1970's, consensus about overall warming caused by human CO_2 emission in the eighties, and then clarifying in the details since then. The fact that there still isn't mainstream discussion about how society must change, but rather eternal growth society is still the default tar…

I think that alarmism has hurt climate science ever since the 1960s. Past mistakes matter because people generally won't trust the naysayers when they've been proven wrong so obviously that grade school children won't trust them. From https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/21/18-examples-of-the-sp... >Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) s…

Noticeably, all 18 of these are quotes from an individual scientist or author (not sure exactly what kind of scientist Paul Ehrlich was). None of them reflect an almost universal scientific consensus, like what now exists on global warming.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#50

So the history of climate change goes something like: confusion about overall sign in the 1960's, mounting evidence for warming due to CO_2 in 1970's, consensus about overall warming caused by human CO_2 emission in the eighties, and then clarifying in the details since then. The fact that there still isn't mainstream discussion about how society must change, but rather eternal growth society is still the default tar…

I think that alarmism has hurt climate science ever since the 1960s. Past mistakes matter because people generally won't trust the naysayers when they've been proven wrong so obviously that grade school children won't trust them. From https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/21/18-examples-of-the-sp... >Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) s…

Totally.

Just like the team can't possibly party together after work, because no one can pronounce "karaoke" correctly.

Hold the line, sweet prince, you're doing the Lord's work.

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