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Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

blogs.scientificamerican.com

31–40 of 91 posts

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#31
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A large number of those are of the form "If X continues, bad thing Y will happen", and they are being called wrong predictions because bad thing Y did not happen. But Y did not happen because X did not continue, either because we purposefully stopped X from continuing partly to avoid Y, or something replaced X for other reasons unrelated to Y and the new X did not have the properties that could lead to Y.

If X was not happening, then why even say Y will happen? Consider this prediction: if Hillary Clinton (X) gets elected president in 2016, then 10% of the population in Libya will be killed by US bombing campaigns in 2017 (Y). Obviously X did not happen, so Y never occurred as a predicted result, but was Y ever a valid prediction? Y might be considered a valid prediction because Hillary Clinton intervened in Libya in…

Suppose someone is swimming nude in a cold lake. I predict that if they stay in the lake for 20 more minutes (that's X), they will get hypothermia (Y).

They get out of the lake two minutes later, so X ends up not happening. Are you going to argue that my prediction was not correct? Or that it is a wild prediction?

In the case of several of the ones you cited, they were based on an assumption that pollution levels would continue their rapid rise unabated. But we actually did put in a significant effort to get pollution under control, which was fairly successful. (High levels of pollution have significant health, agricultural, and climate consequences, which is why they were a key part of the base of many of those predictions).

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#32
We should start talking about actions that contribute to global warming in a significant/active/systemic way as crimes against humanity. That is what they are. Executives and politicians need to know that that is how we will judge them in the future.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#34
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that alarmism has hurt climate science ever since the 1960s. Past mistakes matter because people generally won't trust the naysayers when they've been proven wrong so obviously that grade school children won't trust them. From https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/21/18-examples-of-the-sp... >Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) s…

Can you give me a citation for your first quote (from George Ward). Although it seems to show up on a lot of self-described "climate skeptic" pages, I can't seem to find any legitimate source for it. It shows up in wikipedia as well, but the citation there just leads to the same tangled mess of "climate skeptic" pages that all seem to cite each other. I'm really curious if George Wald said this at all, and if he did,…

Maybe someone with access to Ward's papers at the Harvard campus can help you out here. See the following; search for "Earth Day".

http://oasis.lib.harvard.edu/oasis/deliver/~hua02000

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#35
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that alarmism has hurt climate science ever since the 1960s. Past mistakes matter because people generally won't trust the naysayers when they've been proven wrong so obviously that grade school children won't trust them. From https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/21/18-examples-of-the-sp... >Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) s…

Can you give me a citation for your first quote (from George Ward). Although it seems to show up on a lot of self-described "climate skeptic" pages, I can't seem to find any legitimate source for it. It shows up in wikipedia as well, but the citation there just leads to the same tangled mess of "climate skeptic" pages that all seem to cite each other. I'm really curious if George Wald said this at all, and if he did,…

We should be able to derive this from the immediate actions that were taken in 1970-71 that actually prevented the end of civilization.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#36
post #10

Much as I agree that fossil fuel burning is a horrendous thing that has sent us on a life-threatening trajectory, I also think this narrative is overly simplified. The fight to minimize fossil fuel would benefit from a more realistic (i.e. humble) approach IMO. Doubting if Thomas Mann will be the person to do that though. To be clear, climate science has come a long way and has shown beyond any reasonable doubt that…

The science isn't over. There are plenty of things we don't know. But likewise there are things we do know. I know of no serious climate scientist who claims we understand the climate. But we still know that human activity is warming the globe at an unprecedented rate. The fossil burning industry has been handed a gift not by scientists overreaching but by systematically discrediting solid science. This is no differe…

We're in agreement regarding the utter seriousness of global warming, glad to hear. I do believe the main tasks are: adapting to the changes that are coming, taking care of those of us that will get displaced (which may mean moving to a green Sahara), and making sure we don't further worsen the problem. But in light of the prospecting that takes place all over (for example in Greenland and other areas made exploitable by receding glaciers) I'm rather pessimistic about the last point. Even with the fairly rapid development of alternative energy sources (solar, wind, geothermal) it does not seem that these will replace fossil or nuclear fuels any time soon, only supplement it.

As for examples of overreach, I was amiss in not citing anything in support, but the comment was already too long. I'll cite one such example here which I believe supports my point: The so called 'Climategate' affair, which, while scientists involved were exonerated from any direct wrong-doing, revealed a team of distinguished scientists "so focused on winning the public-relations war that they exaggerate their certitude — and ultimately undermine their own cause" [0]

I'll skip your questions based on the straw-man reading if you don't mind.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/science/01tier.html?_r=3&...

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#37
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that alarmism has hurt climate science ever since the 1960s. Past mistakes matter because people generally won't trust the naysayers when they've been proven wrong so obviously that grade school children won't trust them. From https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/21/18-examples-of-the-sp... >Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) s…

And yet, despite your claim: "I think that alarmism has hurt climate science ever since the 1960s." Only one person in the above quotes is talking about climate (10, 18). And you could certainly find 10 climate "skeptics" who have been horribly wrong in the 90s. I don't understand who is exactly being hurt by alarmism. Most people choose to ignore it anyway. Maybe you could provide some example where overzealous appl…

If you've been keeping up with such things, then you know that there is currently a move to shut down many coal and nuclear plants, much of which is due to the economics of natural gas, but also due to environmental concerns. However, in parts of the U.S. there is also a movement to prevent the building of natural gas plants and the pipelines that feed them, again due to environmental concerns. If this path continues, then parts of U.S. may soon find themselves unable to provide adequate heat and power during the cold of winter, which will no doubt lead to many deaths. The Trump administration is currently working to prevent something like this from happening, yet is taking significant heat for that.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#38
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am just quoting the link provided, I think it was necessary to keep that part of the quote because it reveals bias by the link author.

Why did you choose such a biased source in the first place, then?

Not biased, so much; more like balanced. (Dare I say "fair and balanced"?) After going through my daily news feeds and perusing so many stories (so freakin' many!) about how climate change (or whatever) is going to kill us all soon enough, I also now routinely head over to WUWT to see what their take on the matter is. Some of what shows up there I think is crap, of course, but much of it is quite thoughtful and remarkably clear-headed.

And if you're the type to just automatically dismiss such a site out of hand as being too "biased" without actually reading what they have to say with an open mind, then perhaps the problem lies with you and not with them.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#39

I was always confused about what people meant by 'hockey stick growth'... until I worked out they mean ice hockey stick growth. A normal hockey stick wouldn't be very impressive growth!

In the US, hockey is synonymous with ice hockey.

Re: Earth Day and the Hockey Stick: A Singular Message

#40
post #32

We should start talking about actions that contribute to global warming in a significant/active/systemic way as crimes against humanity. That is what they are. Executives and politicians need to know that that is how we will judge them in the future.

So every time you get in your car and start personally spewing excess CO2, that's a crime against humanity? Or you fire up your oil or gas furnace? Or you eat a burger or pretty much anything else produced by Big Ag? Or you build a concrete structure? And so on and so forth.

As the old saying goes: "Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones."

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