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China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#41

Post by jbrun »

anthonyleecook wrote: post #29
jbrun wrote: post #23

Having lived, worked and now running a B2B SaaS company there, the growth is real. Are the numbers exactly right, of course not. China is a massive, complex and not entirely transparent mesh of interests. Long story short though, there is a real middle class in China that is driving real consumer demand. This is starkly different to India, South Africa or Brazil where no real middle class exists. Much longer thoughts…

China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id... http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-... In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in Ch…

For example, we pay out team in Shanghai between 3000 USD and 1000 USD per month. They represent the middle class. Yes, it is less than many in the US, but it is still high enough to enjoy consumer products, travel, and invest in their future and their children's. Plus salaries are increasing 2-3% a year. Government spending on infrastructure is a huge part of GDP, but if you take the high speed trains in China you will see that every seat is sold out and they are not that cheap and if you go to a Chinese tourist location, it is packed, and tickets to enter can easily be 30-40$. This is anecdotal evidence of course, but I would recommend a trip to China - both coastal and interior - if you are so skeptical. Flights are cheap!

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#42

Post by anthonyleecook »

jbrun wrote: post #41
anthonyleecook wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id... http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-... In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in Ch…

For example, we pay out team in Shanghai between 3000 USD and 1000 USD per month. They represent the middle class. Yes, it is less than many in the US, but it is still high enough to enjoy consumer products, travel, and invest in their future and their children's. Plus salaries are increasing 2-3% a year. Government spending on infrastructure is a huge part of GDP, but if you take the high speed trains in China you w…

Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#43

Post by dang »

beat wrote: post #15
propman wrote: post #14

I read a while back that local governments would significantly artificially inflate their manufacturing, construction, spending, and raw materials numbers. There were dozens that seemed so far fetched they were easily spotted as fake by a professor that did little research. When you have govt officials who are forced to increase growth and you'll look bad/fired if you don't and no authority is safeguarding this, then…

This is, of course, completely different from the performance figures of departments in large corporations, because... um.

Can you please not post snark or flamebait to HN?

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#45

Post by seanmcdirmid »

jbrun wrote: post #41
anthonyleecook wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id... http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-... In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in Ch…

For example, we pay out team in Shanghai between 3000 USD and 1000 USD per month. They represent the middle class. Yes, it is less than many in the US, but it is still high enough to enjoy consumer products, travel, and invest in their future and their children's. Plus salaries are increasing 2-3% a year. Government spending on infrastructure is a huge part of GDP, but if you take the high speed trains in China you w…

It is nowhere near enough to ever buy a house in shanghai, however.

I’ve taken the HSR many times and the car I’ve been in has almost been empty for much of the way between Beijing and Guangzhou.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#47

Post by azurezyq »

anthonyleecook wrote: post #29
jbrun wrote: post #23

Having lived, worked and now running a B2B SaaS company there, the growth is real. Are the numbers exactly right, of course not. China is a massive, complex and not entirely transparent mesh of interests. Long story short though, there is a real middle class in China that is driving real consumer demand. This is starkly different to India, South Africa or Brazil where no real middle class exists. Much longer thoughts…

China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id... http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-... In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in Ch…

Well, 1-2% gdp growth is not real if you are a Chinese and see through your own eyes. Every year I feel people around me spend way more and buy way more than last year, even in small cities. China is a bit weird that I have to say there are many aspects that you cannot understand from books or "experts".

Actually we also don't really care the faked data. If you can feel the growth, it should be fine. US's economy growth rate is 2~3% and I can barely feel it, it's nowhere close to the rapid growth I felt in China.

hmm, for middle class numbers and ability to spend, check iphone/galaxy S sale numbers.

Edit: I would really recommend you visiting China and I can guarantee you can see something interesting there.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#48

Post by oblio »

xeeeeeeeeeeenu wrote: post #22
oblio wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that China is inflating its numbers, but even so, the growth they've had is impressive and a lot of it is real. And even with further inflation of their numbers, I don't think they will be a paper tiger with nukes, like the USSR was.

What makes you think that USSR was a paper tiger?

The fact that there were shortage of basic necessities in its last years of its existence. The fact that the majority of its exports were oil and gas based, like those of a petro state.

This comic describes it very well: https://goo.gl/GAn5fi

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#49

Post by logfromblammo »

workthrowaway27 wrote: post #35
DSingularity wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The middle class in America is disappearing I think. Chinese is probably the best language to have as the secondary.

How easily can a non-ethnic Chinese person integrate into Chinese society though?

China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years.

And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the last 200 years. White people earned temporary, grudging status as near-equals by making a colossal pile of money while building massive new empires around the world, while China was busy still being the best China that ever China'd.

The thought in the back of the Han-Chinese mind is that the success of the West is but a temporary condition, and that once the technological gap closes, China will once again be the undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. There is almost zero self-awareness of their own racism, and barely an inkling of consideration that racism might even be bad.

China is 92% Han. The remaining 8% are largely sequestered in poor regions of the interior, like the Indian reservations in the US, so any city you are likely to visit for business or tourism will be 99.9% Han. And if you are not already Chinese, it is nigh-impossible to gain citizenship without being a full-blooded Han (tragically born into the wrong country) or by marrying a native.

So don't pin your hopes on being able to follow the money if China becomes the dominant global economy.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#50

Post by iforgotpassword »

logfromblammo wrote: post #49
workthrowaway27 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How easily can a non-ethnic Chinese person integrate into Chinese society though?

China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the…

> undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people.

Funny thats pretty much what the average Joe thinks about the US.

I don't know how you ended up with that twisted opinion, but after working in software development in Beijing for almost two years I can't share these views at all. I perceived my colleagues as pragmatic, forward-looking, interested in politics regarding China and the world, with critical opinions on each of them. I rarely had so many insightful discussions about various political and social aspects as when I stayed there.

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