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Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

theguardian.com

41–50 of 129 posts

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#41
post #10

Google might try to become the conglomerate of all forward-facing things but it is somewhat funny to see how through it all, it's their advertising revenues that form the core of the business.

> it's their advertising revenues that form the core of the business. You'd think the advertising staff would get pretty good treatment at Google. Do they?

Why wouldn't they? All Googlers get very very good treatment.

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#42
post #32

From the actual journal article: > Two additional complications arise because plasma fusion apparatuses are experimental and one-of-a-kind. First, the goodness metric for plasma is not fully established and objective: some amount of human judgement is required to assess an experiment. Second, the boundaries of safe operation are not fully understood: it would be easy for a fully-automated optimisation algorithm to pr…

In software jargon, this is called a "Wizard" (i.e. installer wizard, calibration wizard, etc. that guide you through a process that is more complicated by asking a series of simple questions) and is an idea that dates back decades.

If I'm understanding this right, I'm pretty sure this is not in fact just a wizard. It's using people's answers to "which of these is better" to learn an objective function that can later be used for optimization. A wizard is just presenting explicit choices. Making one requires knowing all the possible paths and results in advance. You could I suppose have an "implicit wizard", where every choice was in terms of "Which of these two examples do you prefer?" rather than explicitly stating what the user was choosing between, but that would ultimately just be a more confusing version of an explicit wizard -- it would still require you to program in all the possible paths and results in advance. That's much less interesting than this.

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#43

There are two directions within the energy world that I don't completely get. One of them is hydrogen storage, the other nuclear fusion. From what I always understood is that the high-energy neutrons produced by the fusion reaction irradiate the surrounding structure and that there is still considerable nuclear waste (although lifetimes are better than with nuclear fission). Do the scientists not care or is this outd…

I saw a presentation by the head of MIT's fusion department, in which he said that the waste would only need to be contained for several decades. It's very different from fission, where the fuel itself produces long-lived high level waste.

With the reactor discussed in this article, the situation is even better, because it would use boron fusion. That reaction doesn't produce neutron radiation at all. There'd just be a tiny amount from side reactions.

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#44

There was a talk about the state of nuclear fusion by some MIT folks linked here on HN a few days ago. One of the biggest takeaways was that many fusion efforts are very far away (3 to 6+ orders of magnitude) on the most important metric, Q, which is energy_out / energy_in. Additionally, much press and public discussion completely fail to discuss this and other core factors that actually matter for making fusion viab…

I also watched that MIT talk and it was quite insightful; however, as I searched a bit more, I realized that the metrics involved in the presentation are only for achieving surplus in the generated energy from fusion.

When it comes to industrializing the idea, the scope is far broader. For example, the speaker was saying that they can use the neutron streams as the result of fusion for creating tritium. In reality, capturing the neutrons is much more complex than that [1]. Some of those may deposit on the inner surface of the tokamak and have to be recovered by 99% to have breakeven. The nuclear waste is another concern in the opposite case.

Given all these, you get a sense that why companies like General Fusion [2] get funded. He showed that General Fusion is very far away in his metrics. But the pinching technology the company is offering, allows for continuous use of the fusion in rapid bursts (like an automatic rifle). When I met them at the Globe conference, they were claiming that they will be ready for production within 5 years of achieving a surplus. I am not sure how fast the tokamak can get there.

Source: 1. http://thebulletin.org/fusion-reactors-not-what-they%E2%80%9... 2. http://generalfusion.com/

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#45

Am I the only one that never reads these articles but just goes straight to the comments? It seems like reporters always get the facts bungled and go for the simple story - out of necessity of course.

On this article I clicked on it, realized The Guardian was going to be waaay to general, and then went to the comments knowing I would find a quick break down of the facts written by "my people" for an audience like me.

Often I'll skip the article entirely.

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#46

There was a talk about the state of nuclear fusion by some MIT folks linked here on HN a few days ago. One of the biggest takeaways was that many fusion efforts are very far away (3 to 6+ orders of magnitude) on the most important metric, Q, which is energy_out / energy_in. Additionally, much press and public discussion completely fail to discuss this and other core factors that actually matter for making fusion viab…

I also watched that video, and was also a bit dismayed. It seemed to me that a lot of projects with the very low Q numbers weren't at the point of going for high Q numbers. The project I follow is Polywell[1], and my understanding is they've been working on confirming the physics of their approach (which involves 'wiffle ball' confinement) and so have not attempted pushing for break even energy production.

The video was eye opening though, I had no idea that high temperature super conductors were set to revolutionize tokomaks. If the potential is there, it seems like the prudent thing to do would be to reset the ITER project, and redesign utilizing the current generation of high temperature super conductors. But I'm just an interested observer, what do I know?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#47

Am I the only one that never reads these articles but just goes straight to the comments? It seems like reporters always get the facts bungled and go for the simple story - out of necessity of course.

On this article I clicked on it, realized The Guardian was going to be waaay to general, and then went to the comments knowing I would find a quick break down of the facts written by "my people" for an audience like me. Often I'll skip the article entirely.

Yep - same thing with that "Roomba is selling maps of your home" thing that's going around. Turns out they're considering partnering with Alexa or something, and you'd have to opt in of course. I just skipped straight to the comments to get the real scoop instantly.

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a complete outsider, I don't understand what's special about the "optometrist algorithm." As described in the Nature article it's just hill climbing using humans as the evaluation function. Isn't it basically the same thing they were already doing but more granular?

Basically nobody was using automated gradient descent / etc because of the proclivity of these algorithms to get stuck on a boundary. The problem is the boundaries are not well defined. One example might be a catastrophic instability. If it gets triggered it has the potential to damage the machine. But the exact parameters in which the instability occurs are not well known. So with this algorithm you mix the best of…

To be clear: there are no gradients here (right?) This is just 0th order hill-climbing with a human assist.

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#49
post #29

There are two directions within the energy world that I don't completely get. One of them is hydrogen storage, the other nuclear fusion. From what I always understood is that the high-energy neutrons produced by the fusion reaction irradiate the surrounding structure and that there is still considerable nuclear waste (although lifetimes are better than with nuclear fission). Do the scientists not care or is this outd…

The comparison is not b/w fusion and a hypothetical waste free source of energy. Its b/w fusion and fission. The waste products of fission are much more dangerous, expensive to handle and we still haven't found foolproof, effective ways of disposing them. OTOH, danger from irradiated materials (whatever that is, this is the first time I'm hearing this TBH) doesn't seem very pressing. I highly doubt any of the irradia…

Half life is inversely proportional to radiation intensity. The big issue with fission waste products are the nucleotides radioactive enough to kill and long lived enough to be annoying, not the nasty ones that go away in a few decades or the almost inert ones.

Re: Google and a nuclear fusion company have developed a new algorithm

#50

There was a talk about the state of nuclear fusion by some MIT folks linked here on HN a few days ago. One of the biggest takeaways was that many fusion efforts are very far away (3 to 6+ orders of magnitude) on the most important metric, Q, which is energy_out / energy_in. Additionally, much press and public discussion completely fail to discuss this and other core factors that actually matter for making fusion viab…

But hey, string ~20 consecutive 50% improvements together and you're at four orders of magnitude :-)
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