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Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

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Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#41
post #38

Now I really want physical loaded dice which follow the gambler's fallacy! Is it too crazy of an idea?

I was a little disappointed when I clicked, too. I can't think of a way you could make physical dice like that, unless maybe the faces were LEDs? That might be too fragile.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#42

A great application for this is in randomizing playlists. My friends, who are also CS grads and should know better, have often complained that their MP3 players, CD carousels, etc play the same music too often claiming that the random is broken, when a song repeating in a short period of time or other songs never playing is what you would expect from a truly random selection. Using this algorithm, you'd be sure to he…

I actually tested the random distribution of Spotify's shuffle functionality: http://michaelmcmillan.net

Spotify's shuffling is most certainly not random. Every once in a while I get a bug where it simply shuffles through various songs from 4-5 albums and will never pick songs outside that set. Restarting the app corrects the behaviour. To me that's some level of proof, because the songs are all there. So what's the algorithm really doing?

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#43
post #38

Now I really want physical loaded dice which follow the gambler's fallacy! Is it too crazy of an idea?

Make them from a substance that leaves a tiny amount of residue on any surface it's left on for more than a small amount of time. Any time a die is rolled (and then left unperturbed for a short amount of time), that face becomes lighter.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#44
There was an old flash video game I worked on a long time ago where I did exactly this. I had a boss with two main attacks, and I didn't want it to be super predictable A/B/A/B, so I had it pick between A and B randomly, then reweight the probabilities, so if it picked A, instead of 50% A, 50% B it'd now be 25% A, 75% B. If it picked A again it'd be down to like 12.5% A, 87.5% B. If B then got chosen, it'd flip flop to 75% A, 25% B, etc. The result was it mostly went back and forth between the two, but would do some attacks 2 or 3 times in a row before switching back to the other.

You can actually play it right here and go direct to the Boss Fight if you wanted to: http://briancable.com/clock-legends/

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#45

A great application for this is in randomizing playlists. My friends, who are also CS grads and should know better, have often complained that their MP3 players, CD carousels, etc play the same music too often claiming that the random is broken, when a song repeating in a short period of time or other songs never playing is what you would expect from a truly random selection. Using this algorithm, you'd be sure to he…

You can take it too far, though. When I listen to Venetian Snares on Spotify, they only play some songs off of 3 albums, despite the fact that have about a dozen albums. If you're going to do that, tell people it's not actually random.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#46
post #38

Now I really want physical loaded dice which follow the gambler's fallacy! Is it too crazy of an idea?

Well, a little micro mechanical device offsetting the internal balance could work, though the balance change would have to be pretty large to bump the probability of any one face up significantly.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually tested the random distribution of Spotify's shuffle functionality: http://michaelmcmillan.net

I have a theory that Spotify doesn't do random shuffling, but weighted shuffling, so that new items are more likely to be at the top of a shuffle (or maybe even popular items). I also believe that this will satisfy users better than true random shuffling. About your linked post: You don't test the randomness of the shuffling, you only test if a shuffled list contain one and only of each original item.

Spotify officially says it's not random.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually tested the random distribution of Spotify's shuffle functionality: http://michaelmcmillan.net

Spotify's shuffling is most certainly not random. Every once in a while I get a bug where it simply shuffles through various songs from 4-5 albums and will never pick songs outside that set. Restarting the app corrects the behaviour. To me that's some level of proof, because the songs are all there. So what's the algorithm really doing?

I get this as well, and I think it gets worse the larger the playlist. It really makes me miss itunes' shuffling algorithms.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There almost certainly is but you can’t collect the data. At some point quantum effects will come into play too. Theoretically all physical processes are predictable, but in practice there is a limit.

> Theoretically all physical processes are predictable If you count a radioactive decay event as a physical process, then this is not so.

I don’t. Radioactive decay is practically the very definition of the quantum effects I mentioned.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#50
post #38

Now I really want physical loaded dice which follow the gambler's fallacy! Is it too crazy of an idea?

Make them from a substance that leaves a tiny amount of residue on any surface it's left on for more than a small amount of time. Any time a die is rolled (and then left unperturbed for a short amount of time), that face becomes lighter.

Wouldn't this be the opposite of what you want? You'd weigh down the current bottom face, making that face more likely to be on the bottom for future rolls.
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