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Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

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Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#31
post #11

I'm probably very wrong, but I still feel there is some undiscovered science when it comes to RNG and the fallacy of the maturity of chances ( Gambler's Fallacy ). Einstein believed the universe was deterministic. Just because it appears to us that there is no correlation between independent events ( the roll of a dice ), does not mean that there isn't some underlaying variable that we are unable to measure or percei…

I'm not sure there's much belief in hidden variables at the moment

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#32
post #6
post #3

This "unfair RNG" issue was big in Dota 2 (a popular video game) for a while. They ultimately implemented something similar and AFAIK now all "random" effects use it.

I googled "RNG" because I wanted to know what it meant, but was presented with an interactive widget that generated numbers.

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#33
post #11

I'm probably very wrong, but I still feel there is some undiscovered science when it comes to RNG and the fallacy of the maturity of chances ( Gambler's Fallacy ). Einstein believed the universe was deterministic. Just because it appears to us that there is no correlation between independent events ( the roll of a dice ), does not mean that there isn't some underlaying variable that we are unable to measure or percei…

We can actually measure randomness though. RNG isn't usually truly random, it is usually pseudo-random. But if you'd like to get true randoms you need to look at events that are true random events. Something like particle decay or photon entanglement. You can also go to https://www.random.org/ to get extremely random numbers. I note that it is not necessarily true random because there are factors that can influence those numbers (they discuss this).

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#34
post #11

I'm probably very wrong, but I still feel there is some undiscovered science when it comes to RNG and the fallacy of the maturity of chances ( Gambler's Fallacy ). Einstein believed the universe was deterministic. Just because it appears to us that there is no correlation between independent events ( the roll of a dice ), does not mean that there isn't some underlaying variable that we are unable to measure or percei…

There almost certainly is but you can’t collect the data. At some point quantum effects will come into play too. Theoretically all physical processes are predictable, but in practice there is a limit.

Had the pleasure of meeting Alain Aspect once who would definitely have, at that time at least, argued the opposite.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually tested the random distribution of Spotify's shuffle functionality: http://michaelmcmillan.net

On your website you put a source mark on the statement 'This is the same reason the Brits mistakenly assumed that the Germans had an exceptionally good aim with their V-1 flying bombs during World War II ' I'd like to read about this, do you still have the intended link?

Thinking fast & slow by D.Kahneman mentioned this same story

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#36

A great application for this is in randomizing playlists. My friends, who are also CS grads and should know better, have often complained that their MP3 players, CD carousels, etc play the same music too often claiming that the random is broken, when a song repeating in a short period of time or other songs never playing is what you would expect from a truly random selection. Using this algorithm, you'd be sure to he…

I actually tested the random distribution of Spotify's shuffle functionality: http://michaelmcmillan.net

I have a theory that Spotify doesn't do random shuffling, but weighted shuffling, so that new items are more likely to be at the top of a shuffle (or maybe even popular items). I also believe that this will satisfy users better than true random shuffling.

About your linked post: You don't test the randomness of the shuffling, you only test if a shuffled list contain one and only of each original item.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#37

A great application for this is in randomizing playlists. My friends, who are also CS grads and should know better, have often complained that their MP3 players, CD carousels, etc play the same music too often claiming that the random is broken, when a song repeating in a short period of time or other songs never playing is what you would expect from a truly random selection. Using this algorithm, you'd be sure to he…

Many music players have done this for a long time. In fact I believe that's part of the reason why they refer to that function as "shuffle" rather than "random"

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#39
This reminds me of Sid Meier's talk at GDC about having to game the random number system because of player's expectations:

http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1012186/The-Psychology-of-Game-...

More often than not, true RNG in game design takes a back seat to fun.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#40
post #11

I'm probably very wrong, but I still feel there is some undiscovered science when it comes to RNG and the fallacy of the maturity of chances ( Gambler's Fallacy ). Einstein believed the universe was deterministic. Just because it appears to us that there is no correlation between independent events ( the roll of a dice ), does not mean that there isn't some underlaying variable that we are unable to measure or percei…

There almost certainly is but you can’t collect the data. At some point quantum effects will come into play too. Theoretically all physical processes are predictable, but in practice there is a limit.

> Theoretically all physical processes are predictable

If you count a radioactive decay event as a physical process, then this is not so.

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