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South Korea’s deployment of THAAD upsets China, seen as espionage tool

arstechnica.com

41–46 of 46 posts

Re: South Korea’s deployment of THAAD upsets China, seen as espionage tool

#41
post #2

China has only themselves to blame. They've let their little client state (North Korea) get out of control to the point where they have nukes and have made threats of using them. If they didn't want a nuclear arms race amongst their neighbors, they should have taken appropriate action years ago.

The NYTimes The Daily podcast this week had an interesting explanation of this situation.

N. Korea is not really a a proxy state, the best you can call it is a rogue proxy state. It's not like it doesn't extort China too. It knows China doesn't want instability on it's border. Funnily enough the rest of the world thinks China can snap it's fingers and get the situation fixed up. The rest of the world is perplexed why it's not happening.

The analogy they made is to Israel. The whole world thinks that Israel is a proxy of the US. The rest of the world doesn't understand why the U.S just can't get Israel to stop building settlements. In fact when the U.S makes a public stink about it, Israel builds new settlements out of spite.

So the term is ... rogue proxy.

I believe this is the episode: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/podcasts/the-daily/north-... . Not a 100% sure about it, since I listened to it in my podcast feed and just did a search for it.

Re: South Korea’s deployment of THAAD upsets China, seen as espionage tool

#42
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US military is present in South Korea and Japan because of N. Korea and China, not anybody else. / You don't see such US military presence in NZ or Australia. I'm not sure that paints an accurate picture. The first reason the U.S. is in Japan and S Korea is because the U.S. won WWII and setup bases in captured territory. If you look at most major U.S. bases around the world, you will notice they are in territory ca…

> The second reason is that East Asia is militarily unstable I think you supported by argument. Why is East Asia militarily unstable?

I'm not sure quite what you are looking for. I gave some reasons above. I think it's widely accepted to be true among foreign policy experts, FWIW. Here's a bit more.

Some is basic international relations (which I'm no expert in, and I'm writing quickly off the top of my head ...):

Fundamentally, there are multiple powers in close proximity (China, Japan, Russia, and currently S Korea) who are militarily competitive (i.e., there's not one clearly dominant power, as in N. America, whom the others can't challenge) and vulnerable to each other (e.g., not separated by an ocean, like the U.S. and other powers). This is a sure recipe for wars, and there's a history of it happening in East Asia. Furthermore, there is a lot of nationalistic hatred, especially between Japan and the other powers. Another example of powers in proximity is Europe through WWII, where wars were fought for hundreds of years.

Domestically, conflicts are resolved through rules (laws) and mechanisms (courts), and there is an authority to enforce it all (government). In the international arena there is no authority; it's fundamentally Darwinian anarchy and nations, fearing for their very survival or seeing opportunity in the lawlessness, end up shooting at each other. The way Europe stopped having wars was to create the European Union, which provided the authority, rules, and mechanisms (and the American presence helped too). Globally, the United Nations and "international law" serve that purpose to a degree, and international wars have been greatly reduced since WWII, but really there is no authority with enforcement power.

But there is, to an extent, one exception to that last sentence, the United States. The U.S. can play that role to a degree. They aren't a legitimate authority, in that nobody elected them and they represent nobody but their own interests (hopefully enlightened), but they have the power to enforce things when they want to. Much of the world, desiring some order and wishing to avoid crippling wars, supports it to a degree. The U.S. is, relatively to predecessors and to potential alternatives (China, the old USSR, etc.), a responsible steward: They want peace, human rights, and prosperity. The U.S. is averse to conquering foreign lands (i.e., to keep them) and long-term wars. When you hear American officials talk about maintaining the 'rules-based international order' (referred to by some others as the 'U.S.-led international order'), this role is what they mean.

That's the role the U.S. plays in East Asia. They have the power to keep a lid on conflict there, and therefore the local powers don't need to build up militarily and to seek every advantage to ensure their survival.

China is now challenging the U.S.-led international order, including many of the rules that they feel don't suit them. The more the East Asian powers see the U.S. hesitate to fulfill its role, such as during the recent Presidential campaign, the more they build up their own militaries (which is happening rapidly) or consider making a deal with China (which is discussed, even in Australia).

Re: South Korea’s deployment of THAAD upsets China, seen as espionage tool

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah it's hard to feel sorry for them. They let this situation happen. This is an anti ballistic missile system, used to stop the very ballistic missiles NK is trying to launch. What did China honestly expect to happen? SK just leave itself open to attack?

NK doesn't need ballistic missiles to attack SK. Artillery itself is enough to level Seoul to the ground.

DPRK artillery destroying Seoul with lightning speed is practically a meme at this point. I've been hearing it for decades and I find it hard to believe South Korea and the US with 10s of thousands of troops have no contingency plan and no rapid response for DPRK artillery fire on Seoul.

Re: South Korea’s deployment of THAAD upsets China, seen as espionage tool

#44
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The second reason is that East Asia is militarily unstable I think you supported by argument. Why is East Asia militarily unstable?

I'm not sure quite what you are looking for. I gave some reasons above. I think it's widely accepted to be true among foreign policy experts, FWIW. Here's a bit more. Some is basic international relations (which I'm no expert in, and I'm writing quickly off the top of my head ...): Fundamentally, there are multiple powers in close proximity (China, Japan, Russia, and currently S Korea) who are militarily competitive…

Japan/SKorea would like to spend less $ on weapons. BUT US has a history of abandoning an ally when convenient (like Taiwan).

So even if US guarantees nuclear umbrella for SKorea and Japan, you never know what will happen. And you don't want to take chances with N Korea there.

Re: South Korea’s deployment of THAAD upsets China, seen as espionage tool

#45
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure quite what you are looking for. I gave some reasons above. I think it's widely accepted to be true among foreign policy experts, FWIW. Here's a bit more. Some is basic international relations (which I'm no expert in, and I'm writing quickly off the top of my head ...): Fundamentally, there are multiple powers in close proximity (China, Japan, Russia, and currently S Korea) who are militarily competitive…

Japan/SKorea would like to spend less $ on weapons. BUT US has a history of abandoning an ally when convenient (like Taiwan). So even if US guarantees nuclear umbrella for SKorea and Japan, you never know what will happen. And you don't want to take chances with N Korea there.

I agree that is a line of thinking, with one exception. Japan is not building up its military because of N Korea but because of China.

Japan's recent military buildup didn't begin until China's really took flight. Japan always has faced little threat from N Korea (besides the nuclear weapons); NK would have to cross a significant body of water to reach Japan, and lacks the capability, and Japan has more than enough conventional power to easily defeat NK. To deal with NK, Japan needs only anti-missile and anti-air capabilities to protect against nuclear weapons.

S Korea obviously is much more exposed to NK, but AFAIK their risk is not defeat to NK but losing very large numbers of civilians in Seoul, which the North holds hostage with massive, dug-in artillery batteries. That has been the North's deterrent against an SK invasion. I'm not sure if SK's military is growing.

Re: South Korea’s deployment of THAAD upsets China, seen as espionage tool

#46
post #2

China has only themselves to blame. They've let their little client state (North Korea) get out of control to the point where they have nukes and have made threats of using them. If they didn't want a nuclear arms race amongst their neighbors, they should have taken appropriate action years ago.

The last time the USA tried to build a ballistic missile defence system, Ukraine got invaded and split into two (if not officially, at least practically). Turns out that when big powerful countries start feeling a bit squeezed, they create buffer zones. By invading a neighbour. Not trying to make up excuses for any of the parties involved here. Just pointing out that China likely won't sit on its ass as this happens.…

> Just pointing out that China likely won't sit on its ass as this happens

China already is behaving aggressively, expanding territory under its control (e.g., in the S. China Sea) and threatening to do so elsewhere (e.g, in the Senkaku islands). They may try to justify their next aggression by blaming someone, but that isn't meaningful.

The same applies to Russia, which already had annexed part of Georgia and clearly had designs on the southern Ukrainian province of Crimea (which did nothing to protect them against missiles). They justify their behavior, like all bad actors throughout history. Look at the Nazi's list of excuses as they snatched territory in the run-up to WWII.

The U.S. and others can't be intimidated into inaction while aggressors like Russia and China keep moving forward, for fear of 'upsetting' their tender feelings.

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