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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

techcrunch.com

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#41

Post by Retric »

mikeash wrote: post #24
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

Level 3 is the real danger area. That's the level where the driver is able to do other things, but must be prepared to retake control at any time. Those two ideas are basically contradictory: if you're not already involved with driving, it takes too long to get back into it to do anything useful. Tesla's system is level 2, meaning that the driver must (as in, is supposed to) remain engaged and aware of the driving ta…

Maintaining safety is easier than navigation when you need to deal with all situations. Consider parking in an open field or responding to a traffic cop redirecting traffic. A car may simply stop and require a driver to respond in such situations with any real safety risks.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#42

Post by ebbv »

cryptoz wrote: post #34
wccrawford wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe other drivers are really good, or maybe this class of driver is really bad?

35,000 people die from car accidents every single year in the USA alone. Other drivers are not "really good".

Personally I believe most people are really terrible drivers. That being said, there were 210 million drivers in the US in 2009. There's probably a lot more today. That's just 0.01% of drivers. That fact makes me have to question just how bad people really are, despite my own personal opinion. Or maybe cars are just really safe. A better statistic might be number of accidents.

In 2015 2.44 million people were injured in car accidents. That's a much more telling figure of just how bad most drivers are. Apparently our cars are just really safe.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#43

Post by martin_bech »

huangc10 wrote: post #28

Can anyone who is in the industry comment on how Autopilot performs in poor weather (ie. flash floods, thunderstorms, snowstorms etc...) All I can find from the article about weather was in section 3.1: > The manual includes several additional warnings related to system limitations, use near pedestrians and cyclists, and use on winding roads with sharp curves or with slippery surfaces or poor weather conditions. The…

Havent tried it in heavy snow yet, but it performs pretty good in heavy rain. The software is constantly updated, and as a user, you really feel it getting better.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#44

Post by traek »

up_and_up wrote: post #37
Tepix wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rates dropped by 40%. The drivers remained the same. Why do you think a different driver demographic will not show a similar improvement?

Do you think peoples ability to behave/drive responsibly vs recklessly could be at all linked to their demographic profile? I am talking statistically, not looking for anecdotes...

Yes, it's very likely that different demographic profiles have different driving behaviors.

But given that they've shown this 40% crash rate reduction in their current demographic, it's reasonable to expect to see a similar reduction in other demographics (maybe not of the same magnitude, but at least in the same direction).

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#45

Post by NickM »

huangc10 wrote: post #28

Can anyone who is in the industry comment on how Autopilot performs in poor weather (ie. flash floods, thunderstorms, snowstorms etc...) All I can find from the article about weather was in section 3.1: > The manual includes several additional warnings related to system limitations, use near pedestrians and cyclists, and use on winding roads with sharp curves or with slippery surfaces or poor weather conditions. The…

It's not recommended, but does apparently work in a pinch: https://electrek.co/2016/12/28/tesla-autopilot-snow/

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#46

Post by extrapickles »

Shivetya wrote: post #15
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

I think the primary issue many of us have is the name. the name implies far more capability than the system delivers. I have seen clear day demonstrations but am eagerly awaiting Tesla to show us a night time rainy video which I have seen references of testing having been done

Here is video of the automatic breaking feature triggering at night during light rain: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X-5fKzmy38

The name is good for technical people, not so much for lay people who don't know that autopilots are more like cruse controls than something that completely flies the plane (they have been getting better though). The 40% reduction in air-bag activation seems to indicate the name is good enough while its probably not optimal.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#47

Post by notahacker »

stale2002 wrote: post #35
stuckagain wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That conclusion is not supported by the data in the report. A supportable conclusion based on this report would be that Tesla automation with auto-steer produces 40% fewer air bag deployments than Tesla automation without auto-steer.

Thats like saying "This medical procedure doesn't save lives, it just results in 40% fewer incidents of sudden heart failure".

Or saying "just because this drug cocktail appears to reduce incidents of heart failure relative to the weaker drug for patients with a specific condition doesn't mean we should scream at regulators to abandon all further attempts at regulation and start selling all potent heart-related drugs under development over the counter"

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#48

Post by josinalvo »

up_and_up wrote: post #37
Tepix wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rates dropped by 40%. The drivers remained the same. Why do you think a different driver demographic will not show a similar improvement?

Do you think peoples ability to behave/drive responsibly vs recklessly could be at all linked to their demographic profile? I am talking statistically, not looking for anecdotes...

If you believe a certain profile of people is more accident prone, maybe people that fit this profile will have more advantage when using autopilot?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#49

Post by atonalfreerider »

Roritharr wrote: post #4
snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

Wealthy motorists drive more recklessly: http://www.pnas.org/content/109/11/4086.short

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#50

Post by Roritharr »

dkonofalski wrote: post #7
Roritharr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

Wait... are you saying that people that are less wealthy are better educated? If so, I need to see some sources. That sounds preposterous.

No, i just took education as one possible factor that might be different between Tesla and Camry or Hummer drivers. Tesla Owners have a specific selection bias, its just hard to describe what that bias actually is, so i just took a stab in a direction to get the discussion going.
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