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Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

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Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#41
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have further evidence/elaboration about this point?

I have several accounts that I set up for research purposes with close to 5000 friends each, mostly 17-25. All friends became inactive in the last 4 years.

It could be that the people who accept friend requests from randoms with 5000 friends aren't very strongly attached to the service in the first place, and aren't the core market or the bread and butter of FB.

Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#42
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have several accounts that I set up for research purposes with close to 5000 friends each, mostly 17-25. All friends became inactive in the last 4 years.

It could be that the people who accept friend requests from randoms with 5000 friends aren't very strongly attached to the service in the first place, and aren't the core market or the bread and butter of FB.

No, no- these are the users of our app, when they added these accounts they knew the accounts were associated with our company.

Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#43
post #24

Here's the thing that most people don't know unless they are in the "industry": * The gaming industry is most likely driving a lot of this growth. I'm sure Machine Zone and Supercell are doing between $5M - $10M a day on FB alone. * FB is re-defining attribution. They want to bring in big brands and are re-defining last-click to "Multi-touch". Their end game ofcourse is to say the reason why you decided to make a tri…

Pretty sure gaming is NOT where Facebook's revenue growth is coming from. Almost all the growth has been coming from mobile advertising for a couple years now.

Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#44
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have further evidence/elaboration about this point?

I have several accounts that I set up for research purposes with close to 5000 friends each, mostly 17-25. All friends became inactive in the last 4 years.

That sounds like you sent random friend requests to strangers (please correct me if I'm wrong). I'd expect that there would be some correlation between users who would accept a friend request from a stranger and the likelihood that they would go inactive.

Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#45
post #24

Here's the thing that most people don't know unless they are in the "industry": * The gaming industry is most likely driving a lot of this growth. I'm sure Machine Zone and Supercell are doing between $5M - $10M a day on FB alone. * FB is re-defining attribution. They want to bring in big brands and are re-defining last-click to "Multi-touch". Their end game ofcourse is to say the reason why you decided to make a tri…

Thank you for the most sane and objective post in this thread that's actually backed by industry knowledge and not just blind hatred.

Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#46
post #43
post #24

Here's the thing that most people don't know unless they are in the "industry": * The gaming industry is most likely driving a lot of this growth. I'm sure Machine Zone and Supercell are doing between $5M - $10M a day on FB alone. * FB is re-defining attribution. They want to bring in big brands and are re-defining last-click to "Multi-touch". Their end game ofcourse is to say the reason why you decided to make a tri…

Pretty sure gaming is NOT where Facebook's revenue growth is coming from. Almost all the growth has been coming from mobile advertising for a couple years now.

To be fair, gaming _is_ a big fraction of mobile advertising

Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#47
post #24

Here's the thing that most people don't know unless they are in the "industry": * The gaming industry is most likely driving a lot of this growth. I'm sure Machine Zone and Supercell are doing between $5M - $10M a day on FB alone. * FB is re-defining attribution. They want to bring in big brands and are re-defining last-click to "Multi-touch". Their end game ofcourse is to say the reason why you decided to make a tri…

I wonder what happened in their 4th quarter though. They seem to have seriously clamped down on expenses. I wonder if this is an actual policy effect or just somehow they skipped building datacenters in Q4.

Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#48
post #19
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies the spend the most on Facebook ads track the resulting revenue they earn very closely. So even if lots of clicks were fraudulent, they're looking at ($ earned from clicks)/($ spent on clicks). Based on Facebook's continuing increase in earnings, it's safe to bet that lots of major advertisers are seeing this ratio returning >1, and are therefore increasing their spend.

Facebook is the only platform that lets advertisers target a mass audience with very fine demographic precision. Google you lose the demographics. Television, you lose the the precision. All advertising platforms deliver fraudulent/worthless/imaginary/bogus views. Print has a problem with publishers making up circulation numbers. Television has a problem with ads running while no one is watching. Radio has a massive…

As someone who spends a lot on Google and Facebook ads - this guy got it right.

Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#49
post #5

Hopefully for their investors' sake that revenue isn't significantly driven by click fraud, a rumor that's been circulating for years http://thesocialmediamonthly.com/startup-ceo-alleges-massive... * Is anyone aware of evidence of the extent of click fraud on Facebook? I see a lot of discussion about it but not a lot of data.

> * Is anyone aware of evidence of the extent of click fraud on Facebook? I see a lot of discussion about it but not a lot of data.

This probably counts more as an anecdote than as data, but at my last startup we bought about $100,000 of Facebook advertising and never saw click fraud (we tracked downstream behavior and revenue very carefully). Far and away Facebook provided the best traffic compared to any other paid channel.

Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue

#50
post #40
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure you're completely understanding how it works. I can actually run an ad on Facebook and with a conversion pixel I can see what the ROI return is. Read this for more details: http://blog.wishpond.com/post/63739323752/how-to-use-the-fac...

"Attribution" means more than just the last click. If you see an ad on TV, and then 2 minutes later receive an ad on Facebook for the same product, click through and buy then how much is the TV ad responsible vs the Facebook ad. Same for Youtube ads. Typically (as a very broad rule) people don't click through to purchase from a Youtube ad. And yet lab (and other) studies show an increased propensity to purchase a spe…

Which studies in particular?
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