Hopefully for their investors' sake that revenue isn't significantly driven by click fraud, a rumor that's been circulating for years http://thesocialmediamonthly.com/startup-ceo-alleges-massive... * Is anyone aware of evidence of the extent of click fraud on Facebook? I see a lot of discussion about it but not a lot of data.
Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
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Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
#32I wonder how much of that revenue came from VC-backed startups that just want to acquire a user-base whatever the cost. Mobile app install costs $4+ for iPad and $2.5+ for iPhone. Even at a 100% install to launch rate and a 5% conversion rate, companies need to make $80 per paying users for the numbers to work. This just doesn't seem sustainable to me.
Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
#33The big question mark for me is whether FB will be the advertising giant to finally crack the attribution nut. You see, the age old problem of "I know I'm wasting half my budget, I just don't know which half" is still alive and well. These days, we have SO MUCH data about cross-channel attribution that it can be hard to plot a path forward (and that's if you are even aware of this concept and its implications). For t…
Are you familiar with conversion tracking? You can attribute conversion (checkout, sign-ups, etc) with clicking or viewing of FB ads. More details here: https://www.facebook.com/business/help/460491677335370
Sure, the user saw the facebook ad or clicked on the facebook ad. But... does that just mean that facebook is good at showing ads to the sort of people who already buy those products?
(I know that when I'm running without ad-blocker, I already own most of the products that correctly-targeted ads try to advertise to me. My argument is that the ads are merely following my preferences, not driving those preferences.)
Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
#34I wonder how much of that revenue came from VC-backed startups that just want to acquire a user-base whatever the cost. Mobile app install costs $4+ for iPad and $2.5+ for iPhone. Even at a 100% install to launch rate and a 5% conversion rate, companies need to make $80 per paying users for the numbers to work. This just doesn't seem sustainable to me.
Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
#35Facebook is the biggest scam for most businesses. 1) They've pulled bait and switch when they decided to charge to reach users that have already liked your page. Most of those users liked your page because you've posted a link to FB on your site. 2) Click fraud is rampant [1] 3) They make money on copyrighted videos + ripping off YouTube content creators [2] [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVfHeWTKjag [2] https:/…
The only excuse for loosing money on FB in the long-term is unsuccessful experimentation and that shouldn't be huge quantities.
Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
#36I wonder how much of that revenue came from VC-backed startups that just want to acquire a user-base whatever the cost. Mobile app install costs $4+ for iPad and $2.5+ for iPhone. Even at a 100% install to launch rate and a 5% conversion rate, companies need to make $80 per paying users for the numbers to work. This just doesn't seem sustainable to me.
If you are running a facebook campaign, you will buy either on volume (don't care what the price is, just give me the user, ie Uber), ROI (make sure the LTV of the user is less than the CPI), or profit (make sure we're still making money even after apple's cut)
Facebook allows you to form a closed loop feedback system. If Uber knows the LTV of a customer is $100 and CPI's on FB are $10, go to the bank and get as many of those customers you can.
Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
#37Except that most of Americans between 16-22 (the oldest FB audience) have quit. The lagging indicators are the user acquisition in emergent markets and the revenue. In the case of Blackberry for example, the revenue peaked at least two years after the actual product was dead.
Do you have further evidence/elaboration about this point?
Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
#38Except that most of Americans between 16-22 (the oldest FB audience) have quit. The lagging indicators are the user acquisition in emergent markets and the revenue. In the case of Blackberry for example, the revenue peaked at least two years after the actual product was dead.
What about Instagram / Whatsapp? Both potentially huge revenue drivers. Whatsapp is particularly popular in emerging markets.
Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you familiar with conversion tracking? You can attribute conversion (checkout, sign-ups, etc) with clicking or viewing of FB ads. More details here: https://www.facebook.com/business/help/460491677335370
Yes, tracking last-touch is easy. but last touch is far from the whole story, and once you move away from simply tracking last touch, it gets really complex. Sure, the user saw the facebook ad or clicked on the facebook ad. But... does that just mean that facebook is good at showing ads to the sort of people who already buy those products? (I know that when I'm running without ad-blocker, I already own most of the pr…
http://blog.wishpond.com/post/63739323752/how-to-use-the-fac...
Re: Facebook Climbs to 1.59B Users, Beats Q4 Estimates with $5.8B Revenue
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, tracking last-touch is easy. but last touch is far from the whole story, and once you move away from simply tracking last touch, it gets really complex. Sure, the user saw the facebook ad or clicked on the facebook ad. But... does that just mean that facebook is good at showing ads to the sort of people who already buy those products? (I know that when I'm running without ad-blocker, I already own most of the pr…
I'm not sure you're completely understanding how it works. I can actually run an ad on Facebook and with a conversion pixel I can see what the ROI return is. Read this for more details: http://blog.wishpond.com/post/63739323752/how-to-use-the-fac...
If you see an ad on TV, and then 2 minutes later receive an ad on Facebook for the same product, click through and buy then how much is the TV ad responsible vs the Facebook ad.
Same for Youtube ads. Typically (as a very broad rule) people don't click through to purchase from a Youtube ad. And yet lab (and other) studies show an increased propensity to purchase a specific product after Youtube advertising exposure.
As an ad buyer, how much do you spend on those TV/Youtube Ads, vs how much for the final click.
lcs's point is that sometimes that (paid) final click comes from a user who was probably likely to purchase anyway. So an advertiser would be better off paying more for wider exposure than for that final click (assuming a fixed budget etc etc).
This is a live problem right now, and a solution is worth billions of dollars.