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Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

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Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#391

Interestingly I think if the AI succeed at the level that a lot of these CEOs hope we're not much better off either. And the sentiment that goes around is more: reduce the amount of people needed to do the same amount of work: https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/09/mckinsey_ai_monetizat... > McKinsey says, while quoting an HR executive at a Fortune 100 company griping: "All of these copilots are supposed to make work…

Tax AI.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#392

Forget the talk about bubbles and corrections. Can someone explain to me the rationale of investing in a product, marketing it, seeing that it drives consumers away from your product and erodes trust, and then you continue to invest at an accelerating rate? Good business would have driven us very far away from this point years ago. This is very deep in the "because we can" territory. It's not FOMO.

> Can someone explain to me the rationale of investing in a product, marketing it, seeing that it drives consumers away from your product and erodes trust, and then you continue to invest at an accelerating rate? Sure! Google began investing heavily in AI (LLMs, actually) to catch up to the other frontier labs, which had already produced a product that was going to eviscerate Google Search (and therefore, Google ad r…

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Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#393
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI, Anthropic, and others will be bought for cents on the dollar. OpenAI is existential threat to all big tech including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple. Hence, they're all spending lavishly right now to not get left behind. Meta --> GenAI Content creation can disrupt Instagram. ChatGPT likely has more data on a person than Instagram does by now for ads. 800 million daily active users for ChatGPT already. Google -…

> Apple --> OpenAI can make a device that runs ChatGPT as the OS instead of relying on iOS. Yeah... No they can't. I don't agree with any of your "disruptions," but this one is just comically incorrect. There was a post on HN somewhat recently that was a simulated computer using LLMs, and it was unusable.

Not to mention you would need an order of magnitude improvement in on-device inference speed to make this feasible at current smartphone costs. Or they could offload it and sell an insecure overpriced-subscription laggy texting device that bricks when you don’t have cell service…

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#394

Forget the talk about bubbles and corrections. Can someone explain to me the rationale of investing in a product, marketing it, seeing that it drives consumers away from your product and erodes trust, and then you continue to invest at an accelerating rate? Good business would have driven us very far away from this point years ago. This is very deep in the "because we can" territory. It's not FOMO.

> Can someone explain to me the rationale of investing in a product, marketing it, seeing that it drives consumers away from your product and erodes trust, and then you continue to invest at an accelerating rate?

Hey now, Google Plus was more than a decade ago. I didn't like it either, but maybe it's time to move on? I think they learned their lesson.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#395
post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can someone explain to me the rationale of investing in a product, marketing it, seeing that it drives consumers away from your product and erodes trust, and then you continue to invest at an accelerating rate? Sure! Google began investing heavily in AI (LLMs, actually) to catch up to the other frontier labs, which had already produced a product that was going to eviscerate Google Search (and therefore, Google ad r…

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It was a well reasoned response to the question posed. Not everything is AI, and not all "walls of text" are equal.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#396

Forget the talk about bubbles and corrections. Can someone explain to me the rationale of investing in a product, marketing it, seeing that it drives consumers away from your product and erodes trust, and then you continue to invest at an accelerating rate? Good business would have driven us very far away from this point years ago. This is very deep in the "because we can" territory. It's not FOMO.

I don't know which product you're even talking about. If you mean AI Overview, you really need to cite the source of this claim: > seeing that it drives consumers away from your product Because every single source I can find claims that Google search grew in 2024[0]. HN is not a good focus group for a product that targets billions of people. [0]: For example https://www.seroundtable.com/google-search-growth-39040.htm…

One can also interpret the growth as a failure from product p.o.v though it drives views.

With AI summaries being hit or miss, we may say users now need to do 20% more searches to find what they are looking for.

Numbers aren't always a good proxy for customer satisfaction.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#397
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple --> OpenAI can make a device that runs ChatGPT as the OS instead of relying on iOS. Yeah... No they can't. I don't agree with any of your "disruptions," but this one is just comically incorrect. There was a post on HN somewhat recently that was a simulated computer using LLMs, and it was unusable.

Not to mention you would need an order of magnitude improvement in on-device inference speed to make this feasible at current smartphone costs. Or they could offload it and sell an insecure overpriced-subscription laggy texting device that bricks when you don’t have cell service…

It isn't going to happen soon. Maybe 4-6 years from now.

But it is clearly the direction. Apple will try to stave off this move by turning iOS more into an LLM as well.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The average home in 1960 was like 1600 sq ft, now its like 2800 sq ft. Statements like this are not particularly meaningful unless there is actually a supply of 1600 sqft houses that are proportionally cheaper, otherwise you're just implying a causal relationship with no evidence.

Supply is driven by demand unless there is a monopoly in house building (there isn't). If this wasn't the case, one could quickly become a billionaire by starting first company that build small houses that are supposedly in demand but not provided by the market

> Supply is driven by demand unless there is a monopoly in house building (there isn't).

There is, however, a monopoly on issuing building permits.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supply is driven by demand unless there is a monopoly in house building (there isn't). If this wasn't the case, one could quickly become a billionaire by starting first company that build small houses that are supposedly in demand but not provided by the market

This is developers maximizing profit per lot. All this means is there are enough buyers who can afford 2,800 sqft houses to keep builders from wasting a lot on a 1,600 sqft house. There could be a lot more people who want a cheaper 1,600 sqft house (including some of the 2,800 sqft house buyers!) than who want 2,800 sqft houses, but the market will keep delivering the latter as long as the return is better (for the r…

> All this means is there are enough buyers who can afford 2,800 sqft houses to keep builders from wasting a lot on a 1,600 sqft house.

So there's a limited supply of lots (or of permission to use those lots).

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economics of it is what's the problem, not the power of LLMs.

So tell us the economics of it? The vast majority of AI doomers in the mass media have never used tools like v0 or Cursor. How would they know that AI is overvalued?

Are the companies making a profit on every prompt I give it (factoring in the cost of upgrading GPUs every year or two)?
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