Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

391–400 of 777 posts

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#391

Post by graeme »

walterbell wrote: post #384
graeme wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've completely ignored what I wrote. The formula the white house used to set tariffs would result in lower tariffs for Canada and Mexico. If both countries were included in the formula Trump would have to cut announced tariffs on both countries. Do you dispute this? It's trivial to calculate.

You're disagreeing with statements by the President of Mexico, describing the result of ongoing negotiations? Canada and Mexico share a physical border with USA, which has already resulted in unique (i.e. unrelated to the math of 180+ other countries which don't physically border USA) tariffs tailored to border security goals, under national security emergency directives which overrode USMCA. USMCA has been historica…

Yes, because the math provides a much simpler explanation.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#392

Post by outer_web »

mathfailure wrote: post #339
kalkin wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's nothing in my comment to "exactly" in support of your point. If the US backs away from Europe it may be more likely to encourage Ukrainian surrender. Russia may be more likely to attack Poland. Germany may be more likely to develop its own nuclear deterrent. Or none of these things may happen. Extrapolating from tariffs to world peace demands a bit more than loose speculation at the continental level.

Surely there is: > Europe clearly at least has a shot I doubt Europe would be that cocky without a full support from their "big bro" from across the ocean. As for attacking Poland - that sounds quite uncalled for: Poland doesn't have a meaningful share of Russian natives living there historically for the Poland to start oppressing them to the point Russia would start a war against Poland. I can't even think of any re…

The Kremlin can come up with a rationalization for whatever their territorial desires are.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#393

Post by brookst »

bitmasher9 wrote: post #131
darksaints wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. There is no reason why any country should trust us anymore if entire trade relations can be destroyed by a presidential whim. Even if Trump fell out of a window today and we got a pro-trade president tomorrow, we’re not fixing this damage for a very long time. We probably would have to amend the constitution to insulate foreign policy from the whims of a single person if we want any chance of fixing this in our…

Passing law that removes tariff authority from the president would be a good start to rebuilding trust.

I don’t think that would matter at all. Pass all the laws you want, when the head of the executive branch orders the CBP to collect tariffs, they will. We’ve long since left the rule of law.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#394

Post by baranul »

bdelmas wrote: post #32
lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.

Things are easier to break than they are to fix. The next president, if there will be another, will not be able to easily glue the pieces back together.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#395

Post by smogcutter »

Vegenoid wrote: post #195
paxys wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next president is going to be Trump. If people don't think that's at least a serious possibity they are extremely deluded about the situation the country is in right now.

We have repeatedly seen Trump say something that sounds ridiculous, and his supporters say "that won't actually happen, and if it does I won't support it", and then he does it and his supporters support it. He has recently said he may try for another term as president, and confirmed "No, no I'm not joking". If you don't take his threats seriously by now, and the willingness of the GOP to get behind whatever he wants,…

On NPR they ran a response quote from Ryan Zinke that was nominally against it, but if you read between the lines you can see them laying the foundation. It was something like “I draw a hard line at violating the constitution, that’s something I’ll never support. But also right now there are leftists and activist judges who think they can violate the constitution by taking power away from the executive”

He never directly spoke against a third term, just “violating the constitution”, and then named some enemies. It’s a long way off still, but you can see the groundwork being laid for something like “emergency measures to protect the constitution” if they decide that’s the way they want to go.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#396

Post by sebmellen »

vkou wrote: post #355
sebmellen wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and that’s always mysteriously forgotten in these conversations. Historically, China stole US IP and software, like Windows, en masse. Now they refuse to import our main export product — software — while we import their physical products and software like TikTok. If we were allowed to export our services to China in exchange, this would be a very different geopolitical moment.

> If we were allowed to export our services to China in exchange, this would be a very different geopolitical moment. No, it wouldn't, just look at how Canada's being treated. The mothership would just broadcast different excuses.

What would it take for Canada to hit 2%?

https://globalnews.ca/news/11050336/canada-defence-spending-...

The US massively subsidizes Canada’s national defense and energy production (crude oil refining).

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#397

Post by sdenton4 »

cycomanic wrote: post #324
toddmorey wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

Yeah, that's an idiotic take...

The US has benefited massively from soaking up the best brains globally. That's not going to keep happening; I have plenty of colleagues already who are refusing to travel to the US. We may well even swing into brain drain as Trump et al move closer to executing their cultural revolution.

Meanwhile, all those other countries will start trading more with each other. The US stands to be left out. Won't happen overnight, but Trump is pissing away the advantages. When the dollar isn't the global currency anymore things will really start to hurt.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#398

Post by mathfailure »

outer_web wrote: post #180
mathfailure wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this might be a move to stop a world war (between Russia and NATO/Europe). If U.S. also leaves NATO any time soon - the chances for a world war would decrease greatly.

Care to explain your rationale? Seems like Russia is in no position to invade any NATO country unless the US leaves the alliance. They've proven themselves wholly outclassed in Ukraine, against a much smaller country with refurb gear.

Furthermore, Russia has no plans to invade any NATO country. It just won't let NATO invade^W expand to Ukraine. And no, this war is not how you describe it: said 'much smaller country' was 2nd biggest (in terms of military strength) in Europe after Russia itself.

And it's not a 1x1 war of big Russia vs small Ukraine: Ukraine got help from all over Europe, G.B., U.S. and Canada. Help in arms, in intel, in training, in money and other resources. Russia got sanctioned badly, by such a big bunch of countries that you'd rather be smirking not about Russia not being able to win already, but at Europe (and now U.S.) economy getting some hits... while Russian economy still stands yet. While all the sanctions are still in effect. For years.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#399

Post by codezero »

mathfailure wrote: post #339
kalkin wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's nothing in my comment to "exactly" in support of your point. If the US backs away from Europe it may be more likely to encourage Ukrainian surrender. Russia may be more likely to attack Poland. Germany may be more likely to develop its own nuclear deterrent. Or none of these things may happen. Extrapolating from tariffs to world peace demands a bit more than loose speculation at the continental level.

Surely there is: > Europe clearly at least has a shot I doubt Europe would be that cocky without a full support from their "big bro" from across the ocean. As for attacking Poland - that sounds quite uncalled for: Poland doesn't have a meaningful share of Russian natives living there historically for the Poland to start oppressing them to the point Russia would start a war against Poland. I can't even think of any re…

There is no modern international norm where a nation can use military force to invade or interfere with another nation because of ethnic natives in that nation being mistreated. This is another russian talking point that’s used as a justification for their intentional aggression and it has nothing to do with why they actually invade their neighbors.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#400

Post by stubish »

ein0p wrote: post #15

WAI. Trump is crashing the T-note yield to refinance $9T (which is how much US debt is going to mature in 2025) at a lower rate. That, for those of us who know arithmetic, is approximately one quarter of all US debt. It seems to be working.

Why would anyone purchase the T-notes with a poor return? Especially if other assets are in a dip?
Post reply on HN