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California’s population shrinks for third straight year

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Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dean Preston, by way of example.

Yeah - his issue is that he rather block any market rate housing rather than it not be public government housing. That’s tough when we live in a super neoliberal country. Government housing is dreaming. He lives from a place of comfort since he’s owned his house for a long time.

I don't understand the hate towards market rate housing. Want the market price to come down? Build more supply. We're so far short of healthy levels of stock, however, that there's no relief in sight with merely-modest pro-housing policies. We need something akin to post-ww2 levels of construction.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really hope you thoroughly investigate this concern before moving to Europe. It's far less "progressive" in some aspects than the Bay Area. In most European countries if you are a mentally ill individual screaming at night in the middle of the city you will either be arrested (and likely hospitalized) for disturbing public order or beaten up by someone local. There are very few places in the world where it's a wide…

The funny thing about homelessness is that its a material issue. When you address the material root causes, homelessness disappears. So does mental illness, which is why the correlation between these issues and GINI coefficient is so strong. > Progressive politics in the US sadly transformed from mostly socially and economically-oriented (Wilson, Roosevelt) to an amalgamation of Marxism (Boudin), capitalism, wokeism…

> The funny thing about homelessness is that its a material issue.

This is funny indeed. But for a different reason than you think. Bay Area progressives like yourself became so embedded into capitalist thinking that they discarded everything else from a working social system. Everything is solved with money (i.e. capital). Homelessness - money. Mental illness - money. Drug addiction - money. Racism - money. Crime - money.

It's no surprise that you did not understand my last statement - you are the prime example of it. Marxist because it's a class war, we just need to get rid of the rich and everything will be great. Capitalist because we can solve _everything_ with more money (ignore social responsibilities, opportunities, community, fairness). Wokeist because all inequality is caused by racism, sexism and other -isms. It's an amalgamation so intoxicating that even when you read the description, you don't realise it's about you.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#393
post #378
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All problems requiring this type of collective action are social problems. There are many vacant houses in the U.S., and many cheap houses -- pretending this is about shortage of physical housing is just foolish. This is about shortage of desirable housing, and instead of stopping to ask what are the mechanisms that cause desirable housing (for you) to be so expensive, you just assume the problem is like a shortage o…

I think we have opposite assumptions here. Afaict, young upwardly mobile professionals love density and (income++) diversity. SF was kinda sketchy before it got gentrified by tech, no? Tenderloin was bad, I’ve heard? The notion that people primarily move from less to more exclusive places don’t match with what I see. And people who are actually poor can’t afford new construction, so poor people (and the real social p…

I think you are ignoring the racial angle here. San Francisco became trendy because it was a major urban center, a walkable city, with less than a 6% black population, and that population was relegated to the Bayview area, which of course did not become popular with tech workers as a residential destination. You have a similar situation for Seattle. And Austin. Or Portland. But why is there is no big tech gentrification happening in South Chicago? Or DC? Or Houston? Or Gary, Indiana? Or St. Louis? Show me one urban core area that has more than, say, a 20% African American population that is popular as a target for tech gentrification. I'll wait.

The fact is, there just aren't that many cities that fit this bill, and those that do experience rapidly rising real estate prices. As with many issues, race is a taboo factor operating behind the scenes in determining which neighborhoods are targets of gentrification and which are not. When you create a lot of low income housing, people viewed as more undesirable move in and the high income earners go elsewhere. Then you rinse and repeat. But of course the problem is not that there's a shortage of housing or even a shortage of affordable housing. Median value of owner occupied units is $245K, which is 3.5x the median household income[1]. That's perfectly affordable. But the median home value in a major urban city with less than a 10% African American population is a different story. So there's a shortage of housing in our diverse society that has the "right" kind of demographics. As we become more diverse, the number of locations that are predominantly white or asian will get more and more scarce -- and more and more expensive.

You see a similar situation in Sweden, which accepted a large number of migrants and put them on the outskirts of major cities, and of course the house prices of units in the urban cores that were free of migrants skyrocketed. People are paying to not live in areas with large migrant populations. So all of a sudden housing is becoming 'unaffordable' in Sweden. But the unspoken part is that housing with few migrants is become unaffordable, not all housing. Again, this is a social problem, it's not a problem of a shortage of lumber or space.

So building more low income housing doesn't have the effects you believe, in terms of increasing the amount of housing in highly desirable areas. It will have the opposite effect, by removing one area that has the desired demographics, it makes the remaining islands even more desirable and thus even more expensive. At least this is my reading of history. It was very clear, after the race riots of 2020, how home prices in predominantly white/asian enclaves began to rapidly increase, at which point those who wanted to live in these enclaves began complaining about a "housing crisis" because they could not bring themselves to complain about a racial crisis.

But hey, I could be wrong -- housing in St. Louis or Detroit is still affordable. I'll wait to see tech workers scramble to move there, rather than, say Salt Lake City.

[1] https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/VET605221

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#394
post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most virulently racist CA residents I’ve met (meet some interesting people out riding motorcycles) moved to Idaho

I don't see why that's relevant, unless you mean to imply that Republicans = racists.

I think the opposite is implied.

Outspoken racists tend to be "republican". Really just some flavor of extreme conservative, but republican has become a catchall term for right wing.

More subtle, closeted racists, come from all over the political spectrum through.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah - his issue is that he rather block any market rate housing rather than it not be public government housing. That’s tough when we live in a super neoliberal country. Government housing is dreaming. He lives from a place of comfort since he’s owned his house for a long time.

I don't understand the hate towards market rate housing. Want the market price to come down? Build more supply. We're so far short of healthy levels of stock, however, that there's no relief in sight with merely-modest pro-housing policies. We need something akin to post-ww2 levels of construction.

As far as I can tell, the people against market rate housing are really just using low-income housing as justification of their NIMBYism.

Kind of like how domestic espionage is justified with calls of “think of the children”. They try to make you seem heartless to oppose their position.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#396
post #393
post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we have opposite assumptions here. Afaict, young upwardly mobile professionals love density and (income++) diversity. SF was kinda sketchy before it got gentrified by tech, no? Tenderloin was bad, I’ve heard? The notion that people primarily move from less to more exclusive places don’t match with what I see. And people who are actually poor can’t afford new construction, so poor people (and the real social p…

I think you are ignoring the racial angle here. San Francisco became trendy because it was a major urban center, a walkable city, with less than a 6% black population, and that population was relegated to the Bayview area, which of course did not become popular with tech workers as a residential destination. You have a similar situation for Seattle. And Austin. Or Portland. But why is there is no big tech gentrificat…

There is gentrification in some of the southern Chicago neighborhoods. If you're asking why there isn't much in Englewood or Grand Crossing, it's because Chicago is geographically huge, and decades of redlining tore a giant gash in the west and south sides of the city that will take many, many more decades to heal. There simply isn't enough demand, across the entire city, to make high-end development in Grand Crossing viable. Gentrification is pushing harder against the west than the south side right now, is my impression.

I don't know what all is happening in Sweden, but what happened in Chicago wasn't an organic process; it was deliberately engineered.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a rule, we Californias refuse to acknowledge that there are any non-democrats in the state, therefore they can’t move to Florida.

If you look at California by geography, rather than population, California has a LOT of red. https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president...

[deleted]

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#398
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Make it unaffordable in a city for service workers to live, and there will be no one to host your night out on the town. No one to serve your dinner, or to tear your venue ticket, or to play live music.

As I said, it’s unreasonable in the big picture. The big picture matters. But it’s not _illogical_ for someone who has everything they want to oppose things they don’t need. NIMBY-is like another application of the “possession is 9/10ths of the law” argument. It has legs, but it doesn’t always win out.

I know what you mean but I still disagree. Is it _illogical_ to care for the disabled, elderly, widows and orphans in their affliction? I walk past people in need all the time but I don't justify it. Logical is subjective according to the person's wants and needs.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The funny thing about homelessness is that its a material issue. When you address the material root causes, homelessness disappears. So does mental illness, which is why the correlation between these issues and GINI coefficient is so strong. > Progressive politics in the US sadly transformed from mostly socially and economically-oriented (Wilson, Roosevelt) to an amalgamation of Marxism (Boudin), capitalism, wokeism…

> The funny thing about homelessness is that its a material issue. This is funny indeed. But for a different reason than you think. Bay Area progressives like yourself became so embedded into capitalist thinking that they discarded everything else from a working social system. Everything is solved with money (i.e. capital). Homelessness - money. Mental illness - money. Drug addiction - money. Racism - money. Crime -…

> all inequality is caused by racism, sexism and other -isms

All inequality is caused by... all examples of inequalities? As a class reductionist I dislike wokeism as much as the next guy but this statement is meaningless.

its impossible to actually respond to any of the arguments you're making because Marxism = class war and capitalism = more money displays a complete lack of understanding of basic economics. Its not even clear what you're arguing against.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah - his issue is that he rather block any market rate housing rather than it not be public government housing. That’s tough when we live in a super neoliberal country. Government housing is dreaming. He lives from a place of comfort since he’s owned his house for a long time.

I don't understand the hate towards market rate housing. Want the market price to come down? Build more supply. We're so far short of healthy levels of stock, however, that there's no relief in sight with merely-modest pro-housing policies. We need something akin to post-ww2 levels of construction.

The argument I've seen is that basically because we'll never have that post-ww2 levels of construction - building more market rate housing only pushes existing tenants out of the city. You have to usually tear down existing housing and then build new. So, the old tenants get pushed out and then new housing comes in but it's a lot of investment properties and whatnot... So, the cost of housing doesn't actually go down.

If we had post-ww2 levels of housing development but with mixed use residential then I'm thinking we'd have more of an agreement but that's the issue... No one thinks that will ever happen. So, they advocate for more government housing because that will improve more lives of lower income folks.

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