California’s population shrinks for third straight year • Hacker News Board

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#341

Post by fundad » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:21 PM UTC

Blammar wrote: post #287

janalsncm wrote: post #263

I like California a lot but with the cost of housing what it is I know I’ll probably never put down roots. We can talk policy this and that until our heads are spinning but at the end of the day I need to live my life. I have my eye on Chicago. There’s always something going on, it’s very multicultural, and housing is extremely affordable.

You'll have your frozen balls in Chicago, too. I remember a Sun-Times cover when I was in grad school saying: WIND CHILL TODAY -89F!!

Pleasant weather has become a luxury good

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

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Post by _hcuq » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:25 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #306

stouset wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, every time I go home to the Georgian suburbs I have to patiently explain that—while San Francisco certainly has its fair share of obvious and well-publicized problems—if it were really all that bad, people wouldn't be lining up to pay exorbitant amounts in order to live there.

Are they lining up really, any more? I know some tech companies are trying to coerce people back into the bubble, and force them to cram into a narrow valley in central CA, where high rises are generally shunned, just so they can spend 10-20 hours a week commuting into an open office distraction zone, but, remote work is sticky. People are not coming back in the numbers they were. And it's no longer difficult to rais…

Judging by property prices, ie supply and demand, California has nothing to worry about.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

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Post by wwweston » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

zbrozek wrote: post #329

wwweston wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The demand for new housing in California is high enough to absorb pretty significant costs and I'd be willing to bet regulatory expense is not even in the top 3 factors driving building costs (and definitely not the top 2), so saying it's "not worth it" seems like it ignores the top of the market (which tends to be the market migrating in to CA) that's willing to pay a premium for what they want where they want. With…

Regulatory expense is the single largest line item for building a home, with places like Fremont pushing just the permit fees alone north of $140k. https://citiesassociation.org/documents/constraints-survey-d...

When I look at the link, it seems to contain a spreadsheet with no information, but let's say $150k is true.

Market prices of homes in places like Freemont tend to run from the high 6 figures through the low 7. Knock off $150k and we have maybe a 20% price reduction (probably closer to 15%). Nice to have but hard to figure out how that represents the largest portion of anything.

Land homes sit on costs more than $150k, maybe north of twice as much in Freemont-like areas (unless the lot is weird, inaccessible, or otherwise has issues that make it difficult to build on).

I'm not sure how one is going to get total materials and labor to come in less than $150k for most single family homes in CA. Maybe with small square footage and a good deal of luck with labor and materials? You tell me how to build for less than $120/sqft and I'm sure I'm not the only one who's all ears.

Seems to me to get regulatory expense to be the single largest item for building a home, we'd have ignore land, then play the game of lumping together all such expenses while splitting out building and labor, and even then I'm still not sure how it actually adds up.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

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Post by m-ee » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:37 PM UTC

Fatnino wrote: post #295

andirk wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When a longtime Californian leaves California, they make a big stink about it like it's a zeitgeist and parlance of our times. And they only move to Portland, OR or Austin, TX. There have been a few to move to New York City, but that is seen as selling out. Lastly, a handful to Colorado but no one has an opinion on that therefore they are ex-communicated until they return to either California, Portland, or Austin.

That's when a democrat moves. Republicans move to Arizona, Texas and Florida

The most virulently racist CA residents I’ve met (meet some interesting people out riding motorcycles) moved to Idaho

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

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Post by fundad » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:49 PM UTC

SergeAx wrote: post #305

My friends from IT sector left California exactly two years ago (just saw their memories on Facebook). There were a group of six. They did it on a private jet. There was no comment about housing prices, only about, I quote, "crazy commies took over the beautiful state". I don't know a lot about California politics, but maybe housing crisis is just a symptom of something more?

That’s the most 2020 thing

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#346

Post by fortuna86 » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:02 PM UTC

nonethewiser wrote: post #270

renlo wrote: post #157

How smug are Californians that those who always disagree with them always “must be Republicans”? They really said people are leaving the state because of “political reasons” (ie, “they’re Republicans, aka, ‘non-regrettable attrition’”)? Couldn’t be all of the other reasons could it. I say this as a California native who left for a litany of reasons, last of them being the politics.

So youre a Californian who left and can't stand being thought of as Republican?

There's plenty of Republicans in California, they just rebrand as Libertarians (same thing) or move to OC.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

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Post by fortuna86 » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:03 PM UTC

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #297

fortuna86 wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While people remain in denial about how nice it is to only have 2-3 months of livable outdoor weather a year, housing prices will always tell the truth

I think that property prices in Ireland, the UK and the Netherlands provide a neat counter example to your point.

Housing prices everywhere have gone up, just not at the same rates. You can still find reasonable housing outside London, Dublin, etc.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

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Post by foreverCarlos » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:07 PM UTC

usednet wrote: post #235

foreverCarlos wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only people I know personally who left California in the last 2-3 years were pretty apolitical but definitely left-leaning socially. Around a dozen of them. All left due to the cost of living, none were ever "accused" of being republican. To me it sounds like you are mostly regurgitating some toxic Twitter-talk.

I've lived in the Bay Area for my entire life and am considering leaving only because it's not progressive enough. The Bay and most of California is only progressive on inconsequential social issues. Housing? Homelessness? Fucking Houston Texas is more progressive than us. Frankly, I blame the venture capitalists. They have turned what was once a vibrant region I loved into a soulless husk of itself though money. Our…

I really hope you thoroughly investigate this concern before moving to Europe. It's far less "progressive" in some aspects than the Bay Area. In most European countries if you are a mentally ill individual screaming at night in the middle of the city you will either be arrested (and likely hospitalized) for disturbing public order or beaten up by someone local. There are very few places in the world where it's a widely held view that we can just dump mentally ill people on the street if that's what they want.

Progressive politics in the US sadly transformed from mostly socially and economically-oriented (Wilson, Roosevelt) to an amalgamation of Marxism (Boudin), capitalism, wokeism and social impotency that satisfies no one.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

#349

Post by fundad » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:12 PM UTC

sidlls wrote: post #155

friedman23 wrote: post #35

People are doing the math. If you make enough money in California you pay 10% of your income in taxes. First of all, what do you get from that 10% you pay that don't get in other states with lower or no income taxes? For the people paying the taxes the answer is not much. People also fail to account for the fact that the 10% they are paying is 10% of their GROSS income, not net after federal taxes. So if you are alre…

I lived in Florida for a while. Between the ultra-conservative retirees and the over-representation of the tragically hilarious on-point stereotypical poor white rural southerner I thought it was an awful place to live. I get a lot of value for the taxes I pay in California: schools that aren't prohibited from discussing certain scientific topics ("climate change") and that aren't outing LGBQTP+ kids to other kids' p…

This is important, politics isn’t just about talking-points on cable news or who makes your car.

Re: California’s population shrinks for third straight year

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Post by ROTMetro » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:15 PM UTC

weakfortress wrote: post #339

TulliusCicero wrote: post #5

California is a great state in many ways, but it'd be a stretch to say it's even half assed a solution to its housing problem: they've quarter assed it at most. And it does someone no good for a state to be great in many ways if they can't afford to live there. The situation has been dire for some time, but all they do are small incremental steps towards building more housing, it's nowhere close to what's necessary.…

California is a great state? I guess the mass exodus over the last several years is just simply people leaving in excitement. California is not great. It hasnt been great for a long time. It's hostile to anyone who is not the elite while also mascarading as a progressive paradise. The problem with people leaving is they export the same politics that got California to it's position as a working class hostile state. In…

Dude, as someone who left, California is a great state and I never would have left if I could afford to live there. Only a small portion of Oregon is left leaning, and people who feel they are being squeezed out by Californians of course are going to feel antagonistic and try to justify that antagonism in their heads as more than just fear.