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Crypto is an unproductive bubble

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Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#391

Post by oceanplexian »

lern_too_spel wrote: post #379
gonehome wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, a lot of this assumes you get out of Canada at that point. Just like the people fleeing Russia or Ukraine. The thing crypto gives you is the capability to get your wealth out intact (at least whatever you had moved into self-custody). If you have fiat in banks frozen by the Canadian government your wealth is trapped. You’re right if Canada banned Bitcoin it could influence the value of the coin. Similar to gove…

I wasn't discussing the case of Canada banning Bitcoin but of Canada sanctioning the truckers' wallets. Wherever the truckers go, their Bitcoins would no longer be allowed on Canadian exchanges. The fiat equivalent would be moving money to an overseas account. Before you are sanctioned, doing so is just as easy as buying Bitcoin. After you are sanctioned, both are equally hard. The difference is that your Bitcoins ca…

How is it hard? Canadian sanctions only work in Canada.

Say I'm an American, for example. I'd receive "sanctioned" bitcoins from a Canadian and then send them non-sanctioned bitcoins back to a different wallet address. There is no "exchange" being used in this process. I could then happily spend or transfer said coins in the 99% of the world that isn't Canada.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#392

Post by oceanplexian »

stale2002 wrote: post #233
Nextgrid wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just need to control the onramps and offramps. Bitcoin is of no use if you can't exchange it for anything tangible.

> You just need to control the onramps and offramps. Thats a nice theory, but in reality it is false/implausible to be able to control every single on and off ramp in the world. Evidence: Nobody is currently controlling all the on an off ramps, despite the fact that I have heard the same exact argument that you are making right now, for literally over a decade.

You don't even need to off-ramp it, which was the whole point of crypto.

I could cut your lawn, sell you an Xbox, or buy an old tractor completely with BTC. The government can cry about it all it wants, it can pass a hundred laws, or issue a thousand court orders. But at the end of the day, it has absolutely zero control if two individuals want to voluntarily exchange crypto with each other. We've already seen this play out with the illegal drugs trade and P2P file sharing. Spoiler alert: The government lost.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#393

Post by tluyben2 »

wraptile wrote: post #309
pavlov wrote: post #302

Crypto people love to say “it’s the early days.” But it’s not. Bitcoin is 13 years old. At that age, Windows was on >90% of the world’s computers. Java at age 13 had taken over enterprise software and was about to conquer mobile via Android. Cryptos are used by maybe 0.1% of computer users (if we’re very generous about what exactly constitutes usage). Considering the amount of investment they are an expensive failure…

You're comparing apples to oranges. Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption (just look at decentralized networks like Mastodon which are objectively better than alternatives yet lag behind in adoption). Finally, bitcoin is a financial product, I really don't know any other financial systems that we're adopted quickly other than maybe payment processors. We still struggle to adopt centralized systems…

> I really don't know any other financial systems that we're adopted quickly

WeChat pay

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#394

Post by katbyte »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #345
jmull wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is typical crypto-hype. Notice that although many points are raised, it doesn’t address the direct objections of the previous post. Obfuscate, misdirect, and confuse the marks.

Crypto transactions are no less reversible than ACH or wire transfers. The warm fuzzy feeling you have about ACH is you have a trusted third party intermediary that contractually or legally guarantees they will give you the same amount of currency back under certain conditions. If something goes wrong with that ACH/wire transfer and you don't get your money back, you'll have to sue, just like you would crypto.

The destination of a wire is an account at a bank, who’s owner can be tracked down to recover the money from.

Crypto wallet owners can be entirely hidden and impossible to sue.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#395

Post by katbyte »

gonehome wrote: post #76
cco wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn't true in my experience at a, "lot of money" scale. They will help you set up the transaction, confirm the receiving party, test and prove the transfer, execute it. There are also courts etc to get involved, if someone sends you a million dollar wire and you keep it (for no services rendered), courts generally don't let you just have it (cross border caveats etc).

Courts can also get involved in the BTC case too - it’s just an expensive and slow option in both cases (with uncertain outcomes).

Assuming you can actually track down who owns the wallet.. banks know who is responsible for each account.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#396

Post by tluyben2 »

volkse wrote: post #374
Osiris wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're comparing a centralized approach with the force of law to a decentralized approach which requires buy-in by the masses without any coercion. Of course the two approaches will be different.

I can’t understand how anyone has any confidence in crypto after the current Ukraine/Russia situation. I thought that crypto was decentralized and no-one could place restrictions on who could own it, and what they could do with it. This also turned out to be total BS as Russian crypto accounts keep getting frozen. Funnily enough, I haven’t heard the “crypto community” make a single peep about this. Hilarious..

People use custodial wallets which is a bad idea anyway; but it supports the original point; people generally do not understand or care about the basic premise of decentralisation (and, as such, have no interest in the added inconvenience, although with enough tech that can be solved). They use crypto because ‘get rich quick’ and ‘no taxes’ and they do not know or care about how it works. Their coins are in centralised wallets or exchanges . Adoption of the decentralised might (but probably not at all) come slowly over time. You need to read up on things before shouting BS though; there is a lot wrong with all the blockchain stuff but one good thing is; they cannot freeze your wallet if you have it locally; if you do not have your crypto currencies in your locally wallet, you do not own them as such is what any crypto pundit will tell you.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#397

Post by fb03 »

samtho wrote: post #317
paulpauper wrote: post #229

If it's a bubble, it's a pretty lousy one in terms of returns. Some energy stocks were up 100-1000% a week ago due to surging oil prices. And then some SPACs were up 500%. Some guy on reddit's wallstreetbets recently turned $17k into $600k with amazon call options. I never seen anyone make those kind of returns with crypto...just guys with tiny Binance or Coinbase accounts who are happy to make 20% from a $1000 initi…

The wild fluctuations in price, even if the average stays the same, is what enables returns here, not the rise of value over time. I have a bot that trade on the highs and lows of the day, and it can make an absurd amount of money. Also, buying very large quantities of fringe alt coins at millionths of a dollar each can pay off if the coin ends up rising in popularity and price. I do a few moon shots each year and ca…

Did you code the stuff yourself? How did you start? I am looking forward to writing my own stuff. I found that some exchanges like OKX/OKEX have APIs that allow you to algorithmically trade.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#398

Post by gonehome »

danShumway wrote: post #305
gonehome wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “ Why wouldn't they just use the stablecoin?” This is a good question and I think there’s a two part answer. Part one is stable coins still have smart contract risk in the arbitrage style version, and fraud/authority risk in the custodial version. Stable coins that peg a government currency are also vulnerable to all the same issues fiat currencies are vulnerable to. Bitcoin is a better store of value than fiat (wh…

> If you can’t (exchanges are locked) you’ll need to find someone willing to transact in BTC despite volatility (or someone willing to trade you fiat in person). This is the part I have an issue with when talking about Bitcoin as a currency. Forgive my oversimplification, but it really sounds like what you're saying to me is that Bitcoin is not a good currency, it's an investment asset, but for the moment it can be c…

I think these are all good questions and where the conversation gets interesting imo. Also the answers are largely unknown and unproven.

Gold has held up as a value store and is the closest analog I think, but it’s not a perfect comparison and there are trade-offs for each.

I mostly think the technology is cool and provides a new capability to individuals. How much this ends up having a lasting effect remains to be seen (though I lean optimistic).

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#400

Post by [deleted] »

danShumway wrote: post #283
cf141q5325 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transfer mechanism are all that any currencies are. All currencies are dependent on being spendable. Thats just a question of adaptation, as in somebody else accepting it in the expectation that it will hold value and be spendable in the future. Involuntary adaptation historically leads to drastic inflation with the trust in the purchasing power degrading. If you are forced to accept it despite low trust, you are mot…

> All currencies are dependent on being spendable. Right, and the issue here is that Bitcoin is not spendable without first being converted to a better currency that normal merchants like your grocer will accept. That's Bitcoin's weak point, you clamp down on exchanges and suddenly it can't be used with most merchants. > Involuntary adaptation historically leads to drastic inflation with the trust in the purchasing p…

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