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Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

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Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#381
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole 'startup/scaleup' culture (which have become the industry titans of today) - is insane and have been insane for as long as it has been a thing - the culture of either 'just grow and figure out how to monetize'(Social media, food delivery etc.) or 'we're selling you this technology that doesn't exist yet but going to be insanely valuable in the future (AGI, self driving)' or 'we're selling shovels to the fir…

> If you sat down in front of a 15 yo computer, or tried to solve a technical challenge with the tooling of 15-10 years ago, I don't think you'd get a significantly worse result. While you have decent points in your comment (essentially, the idea of tech industry growth slowing due to low hanging fruit being picked), if this statement going to be your barometer you’re going to end up looking stupendously wrong. You c…

I just tried it and no, you can't. I don't really even see how you could. Where is the form supposed to go? Is Grandma supposed to rent a server somewhere to do processing? Where?

25 years ago we had wysiwyg editors to build web pages, and she could just include a link to email her to have people ask her to "sign up" (the entire point of a sewing club is to socialize. You don't need an automated newsletter or whatever. That's for people that want to sell you something). You'd put it into the space your ISP gave you, or Windows actually included a personal web server. You had to be somewhat technical to use the Windows server, but it could've been made more friendly instead of being removed, and personal computers should make it easy to share a static website.

We've clearly regressed since then. People think you need an engineer or AI to build basic web pages. My actual grandma was doing some of this stuff when I was a kid in the 90s, as was I.

What happened to the web seems analogous to me to as if we abandoned word processors and spreadsheets and said you need a six-figure engineer to do custom programming any time you need the features of one of those things.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#382
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole 'startup/scaleup' culture (which have become the industry titans of today) - is insane and have been insane for as long as it has been a thing - the culture of either 'just grow and figure out how to monetize'(Social media, food delivery etc.) or 'we're selling you this technology that doesn't exist yet but going to be insanely valuable in the future (AGI, self driving)' or 'we're selling shovels to the fir…

> If you sat down in front of a 15 yo computer, or tried to solve a technical challenge with the tooling of 15-10 years ago, I don't think you'd get a significantly worse result. While you have decent points in your comment (essentially, the idea of tech industry growth slowing due to low hanging fruit being picked), if this statement going to be your barometer you’re going to end up looking stupendously wrong. You c…

[dead]

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#383
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I'm sure they justify their strong opinions on the grounds that ChatGPT, no less, had individually and specifically told each and every one of them that they're the single most leading expert in immunology in the world.

This post doesn't make any sense.

I've never seen an LLM proclaim anyone to be an expert unabetted, alone the leading expert globally. And on the other side of the coin, very few people are willing to believe an obvious sycophant making claims of their greatness they themselves don't even believe.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#384
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we are heading towards a big recession Who is we? One country heading into a recession is hardly enough to nudge the trend of "all things code"

America's recessions are global recessions.

Sadly yes - "When America sneezes, the World catches cold"

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re assuming how i would respond before i even respond. Please allow inquiries to happen naturally without polluting the thread with meritless cynicism.

With all due respect, with a response like "What AI coding tools/models have you been using?" to a complaint that AI tools just don't seem to be effective, what difference does a reply to that even make? If your experience makes you believe that certain tools are particularly good--or particularly bad--for the tasks at hand, you can just volunteer those specifics. FWIW, my own experiences with AI have ranged from med…

> With all due respect, with a response like "What AI coding tools/models have you been using?" to a complaint that AI tools just don't seem to be effective, what difference does a reply to that even make?

"Damn, these relational databases really suck, I don't know why anyone would use them, some of the data by my users had emojis in them and it totally it! Furthermore, I have some bits of data that have about 100-200 columns and the database doesn't work well at all, that's horrible!"

In some cases knowing more details could help, for example in the database example a person historically using MySQL 5.5 could have had a pretty bad experience, in which case telling them to use something more recent or PostgreSQL would have been pretty good.

In other cases, they're literally just holding it wrong, for example trying to use a RDBMS for something where a column store would be a bit better.

Replace the DB example with AI, same principles are at play. It is equally annoying to hear people blaming all of the tools when some are clearly better/worse than others, as well as making broad statements that cannot really be proven or disproven with the given information, as it is people always asking for more details. I honestly believe that all of these AI discussions should be had with as much data present as possible - both the bad and good experiences.

> If your experience makes you believe that certain tools are particularly good--or particularly bad--for the tasks at hand, you can just volunteer those specifics.

My personal experience:

  * most self-hosted models kind of suck, use cloud ones unless you can get really beefy hardware (e.g. waste a lot of money on them)
  * most free models also aren't very good, nor have that much context space
  * some paid models also suck, the likes of Mistral (like what they're doing, just not very good at it), or most mini/flash models
  * around Gemini 2.5 Pro and Claude Sonnet 4 they start getting somewhat decent, GPT 5 feels a bit slow and like it "thinks" too much
  * regardless of what you do, you still have to babysit them a lot of the time, they might take some of the cognitive load off, but won't make you 10x faster usually, the gains might definitely be there from reduced development friction (esp. when starting new work items)
  * regardless of what you do, they will still screw up quite a bit, much like a lot of human devs do out there - having a loop of tests will be pretty much mandatory, e.g. scripts that run the test suite and also the compilation
  * agentic tools like RooCode feel like they make them less useless, as do good descriptions of what you want to do - references to existing files and patterns etc., normally throwing some developer documentation and ADRs at them should be enough but most places straight up don't have any of that, so feeding in a bunch of code is a must
  * expect usage of around 100-200 USD per month for API calls if the rate limits of regular subscriptions are too limiting
Are they worth it? Depends. The more boilerplate and boring bullshit code you have to write, the better they'll do. Go off the beaten path (e.g. not your typical CRUD webapp) and they'll make a mess more often. That said, I still find them useful for the reduced boilerplate, reduced cognitive load, as well as them being able to ingest and process information more quickly than I can - since they have more working memory and the ability to spot patterns when working on a change that impacts 20-30 files. That said, the SOTA models are... kinda okay in general.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#386
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My opinion is that AI isn’t actually the root of the problem here. It’s that we are heading towards a big recession. As in all recessions, people come up with all sorts of reasons why everything is fine until it can’t be denied anymore. This time, AI was a useful narrative to have lying around.

> we are heading towards a big recession Who is we? One country heading into a recession is hardly enough to nudge the trend of "all things code"

The last US recession that didn't also pull in the rest of the western world was in 1982, over 40 years ago. Western Europe, Aus, NZ, Canada, and the US all largely rise and sink on the same tides, with differences measured in degrees.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I agree that if there are productivity gains that everyone should benefit And if they don't, then you'd understand the anger surely. You can't say "well obviously everybody should benefit" and then also scold the people who are mad that everybody isn't benefiting.

i’m not scolding anyone who is mad that not everyone is benefitting

What are you doing then?

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#388
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Today a friend of mine connected me with his uncle who wanted to develop an MVP for his company. He claimed he didn’t want to distract his engineers on this project, but that “it shouldn’t take you more than 5hs to do this with vibe coding”. I promptly declined, if it takes 5hs why are you reaching out to me? It would take more than 5hs just to bring me into the loop of what you want vs your own engineers. If vibe co…

[flagged]

Expertise is second to results - without results, expertise doesn't matter. I'm sure there are a lot of homeopathic "healers" who feel they have a lot of expertise, but the results are sorely lacking.

Ship more or STFU

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why?

If (a) companies lay too many people off because the magic robots will make engineers unnecessary and (b) the pipeline collapses, because being a software engineer is an undesirable career because it is being replaced by robots and (c) it emerges that the robots are kinda bullshit, then there's going to be one hell of a shortage. When I started a CS degree in 2003, we were still kinda in the "dot com crash has happen…

Holding on for that sweet sweet pay bump after the coming AI winter

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#390
post #27

These claims wouldn't matter if the topic weren't so deadly serious. Tech leaders everywhere are buying into the FOMO, convinced their competitors are getting massive gains they're missing out on. This drives them to rebrand as AI-First companies, justify layoffs with newfound productivity narratives, and lowball developer salaries under the assumption that AI has fundamentally changed the value equation. This is my…

> My manager told me that the time to deliver my latest project was cut to 20% of the original estimate because we are "an AI-first company". Lord, forgive them, they know not what they do.

Counterpoint: fuck them, they know exactly what they do (try to extract more work for the exact same pay out of their subordinates)
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