Earlier quoted context omitted.
Id bet $50 the inference is more expensive
I feel worthless now :)
I mean, the brain is, if you want to consider it a computer, pretty god damn efficient. It's slow as hell but it's really powerful and runs on bread.
Devin: AI Software Engineer
381–390 of 604 posts
Re: Devin: AI Software Engineer
#382Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Instead, workers tend to have higher productivity, which drives higher wages. Wages have not kept up with productivity.
It doesn't need to for productivity gains to be good for workers. Employment and real wages both are up. The fact that profits are also up doesn't change that.
Real wages haven't improved for 15 years where I am :(
Re: Devin: AI Software Engineer
#383Don't get it. If we have this amazing AI why don't we make good use of it? 90% of my job is not to write code (as a senior software engineer), is to: - deobfuscate complex requirements into well divided chunks - find gaps or holes in requirements so that I have to write the minimal amount of code - understand codebases so that the implementation fits nicely I don't need an "AI software engineer", I need an "AI people…
Yes, the horse carriage drivers had similar lines of thoughts when they saw first gen automobiles.
Re: Devin: AI Software Engineer
#384As a developer but also product person, I keep trying to use AI to code for me. I keep failing, because of context length, because of shit output from the model, because of lack of any kind of architecture etc etc etc. I'm probably dumb as hell, because I just can't get it to do anything remotely useful, more than helping me with leetcode. Just yesterday I tried to feed it a simple HTML page to extract a selector, I…
I'll give you examples of how it helps me: 1) copilot is a terrific auto complete, and writes tremendous amounts of repetitive boilerplate 2) copilot can help me kickstart writing some complex functions starting from a comment where I tell it what is the input and expected output. Is the implementation always perfect or bug free? No. But in general I just need to review and check rather than come up with the instruct…
Yep, pretty much exactly this.
Especially #5. I'm certain that I've been at least 10x more productive in learning new tools since chatgpt hit the scene. And then knowing it helps so much with that has had even more leverage in opening up possibilities for thing I'm newly confident in learning / figuring out in a reasonable amount of time. It is much easier for me to say "yep, no big deal, I'm on it" when people are looking for someone to take on some ambiguous project using some toolset that nobody at the company is strong with. It solves the "blank page" issue with figuring out how to use unfamiliar-to-me-but-widely-used tools, and that is like a superpower, truly.
It's pretty decent for "happy path" test cases, but not that good at thinking of interesting edge or corner cases IME, which comprise the most useful tests at least at the unit level.
I'm pretty skeptical of #4. I would be way too fearful that it is doing that plain text to markdown transform wrong in important-but-non-obvious cases. But it depends on which quadrant you need with respect to Type I vs. Type II errors. I just never seem to be in the right quadrant to rely on this in my production projects.
The "really good intellisense" use cases #1-#3 also make up a "background radiation" of usefulness for me, but would not be nearly worth all the hype this stuff is getting if that were all it is good for.
Re: Devin: AI Software Engineer
#385Humans seek work that provides satisfaction and meaning in their life. For every technological advancement, artisans are the first to be made obsolete. Sure we have landfills full of unworn textiles, the market says its good, but overall, we keep destroying what allows humans to seek meaning. Our governments and society have made it clear, if you don't produce value, you don't deserve dignity. We have outsourced art…
The economy clothes aren't great, but you can get a quality tailored suit for $4000. That's about 6 weeks pay for a PFC in the US Army. A roman legionnaire would pay about a gold ounce for a quality (at the time) set of clothing, however, at the cost of about 6 months pay.
They don't build 'em like they used to, but those of us in the rank and file are getting better off. We can't all be "I think I will just buy Hawaii" rich like Zuckerberg, but quality of life is, overall, improving.
Re: Devin: AI Software Engineer
#386Although the demos are impressive, they seem short and limited in scope which makes me wonder how well this will work outside of these planned cases. Can it do software architecture at all? Is it still essentially just regurgitating solutions? How often will the solution only be 90% correct, which is 100% not good enough? Even so, I realize the demos are still broad in scope and the results are incredible. Imagine se…
Ah yes, you've entered the first stage of grief. Denial. Next you'll start bargaining, you'll get angry, and you'll become depressed, eventually you'll just accept that AI is taking over software. In my mind, I've concluded that I have less than 3 years to find an off ramp.
It took me much longer than usual to get past the depression phase. The main reason is that everyone online kept telling me I was dumb, too inexperienced or extremely incompetent if I thought AI was a serious threat to me, a junior developer. Friends offline said similar things, just in a nicer way.
Now everyone seems to be a "doomer" like me. I was too stupid to see that people (especially online) were lashing out at me as a coping mechanism. The worst part is that even though I had my "we're fucked" realization was earlier than many others, I didn't really do anything productive, I didn't make the right moves to pivot, I had no plan. Now I have a rough ~3-year off ramp plan, just like everyone else.
I suspect that there are many, many recent grads in my position, who also thought they were taking crazy pills when everyone around them dismissed their concerns
Re: Devin: AI Software Engineer
#387There's also the alternative: Devin, the NAI.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1byJgu1G_M58QVWmpZeEDthyA...
Re: Devin: AI Software Engineer
#388Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's worth pointing out that on their eval set for "issues resolved" they are getting 13.86%. While visually this looks impressive compared to the others, anything that only really works 13.86% of the time, when the verification of the work takes nearly as much time as the work would have anyway, isn't useful. The problem with this entire space is that we have VC hype for work that should ultimately still be being do…
Don't forget the 20/80 rule. They haven't even gotten to 15% yet. Our jobs are safe. I would even expect more "beginners" to try something with AI and then need an actual programmer to help them ( At least, if they are unwilling to invest the time in development and debugging themselves Ps. Probably all the given examples are in top 3 most popular programming languages.
Machines currently are at an amateur level, but amateurs across the board on the knowledge base.
Amateurs at Python, Fortran, C, C++ and all programming languages. Amateurs at car engineering, airplane engineering, submarine engineering etc. Amateurs at human biology, animal biology, insect biology and so on.
I don't know anyone who is an amateur at everything.
Re: Devin: AI Software Engineer
#389Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ah yes, you've entered the first stage of grief. Denial. Next you'll start bargaining, you'll get angry, and you'll become depressed, eventually you'll just accept that AI is taking over software. In my mind, I've concluded that I have less than 3 years to find an off ramp.
It took me much longer than usual to get past the depression phase. The main reason is that everyone online kept telling me I was dumb, too inexperienced or extremely incompetent if I thought AI was a serious threat to me, a junior developer. Friends offline said similar things, just in a nicer way. Now everyone seems to be a "doomer" like me. I was too stupid to see that people (especially online) were lashing out a…
If the circle you're listening to are "recent grads" stop listening to them.
They don't know how the industry works or what it needs, few of them them know how the technology works or what it's realistic near-term prospects are let alone the long-term ones, and none of them have lived long enough to understand the pace of a technology moving from discovery through to maturity and commercialization.
If you look to your experienced seniors instead of your peers, you'll discover two things:
1. They don't respect most contemporary juniors because of the industry boom and are happy to see most of you scare yourselves off
2. They're narrowing in on a familiar, respectful appreciation of recent content generators and their potential for assisting some basic use cases (highly valuable technology!) and are increasingly of the opinion that both the hype and fear of Q1/2023 was largely market manipulation by VC's trying to squeeze another boom out as money was tightening
Re: Devin: AI Software Engineer
#390Don't get it. If we have this amazing AI why don't we make good use of it? 90% of my job is not to write code (as a senior software engineer), is to: - deobfuscate complex requirements into well divided chunks - find gaps or holes in requirements so that I have to write the minimal amount of code - understand codebases so that the implementation fits nicely I don't need an "AI software engineer", I need an "AI people…
Yes, the horse carriage drivers had similar lines of thoughts when they saw first gen automobiles.
Your point being? The horses were replaced alright, carriage drivers are thriving ever since.