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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#381

Post by JoeAltmaier »

irq11 wrote: post #380
senordevnyc wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, there you go again. You’re suggesting that someone young and healthy should be more concerned about the flu, which is absolutely ridiculous and not supported by any data. The only “evidence” you posted is that the elderly and sick are most at risk, which no one was disputing, and which does not support your position that the flu is more dangerous to young and healthy people than this virus.

The flu is everywhere, right now. Today. This covid virus has infected a tiny sliver of the human population, in a select few locations, and it isn’t that dangerous if you aren’t old or sick. Practically speaking, you should be more concerned about getting hit by a car than catching this virus. You should really stop posting on this subject. You have lost all sense of perspective.

This one has a 3-4% death rate and debilitating, lifelong consequences for those that 'recover'. Its a big deal.

If denial makes one feel better, go for it. Post it here though, and expect to be rapidly disabused.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#382

Post by irq11 »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #381
irq11 wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flu is everywhere, right now. Today. This covid virus has infected a tiny sliver of the human population, in a select few locations, and it isn’t that dangerous if you aren’t old or sick. Practically speaking, you should be more concerned about getting hit by a car than catching this virus. You should really stop posting on this subject. You have lost all sense of perspective.

This one has a 3-4% death rate and debilitating, lifelong consequences for those that 'recover'. Its a big deal. If denial makes one feel better, go for it. Post it here though, and expect to be rapidly disabused.

It does not have a 3-4% fatality rate. You are either getting bad information, or you are making things up.

The latest numbers from the WHO and the CCDC are an average case fatality rate of 2.3%. This is highly likely to be an overestimate, and the deaths are skewed heavily to the old and infirm.

From the most recent CCDC report [1] those under 40, case fatality was 0.2%. Under 50, 0.4%; under 60, 1.3%.

For those with no pre-existing illnesses, case fatality was 0.9%, across all age groups.

[1]http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#383

Post by senordevnyc »

irq11 wrote: post #378
senordevnyc wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is absolutely false. You’re comparing the coronavirus fatality rate for young and healthy people to the overall flu fatality rate. Try comparing the fatality rate of 20-40 year olds only between each virus and then get back to us on how they’re comparable. Also, I’m kind of horrified at how indifferent you are across many comments to the prospect of tens of millions of elderly and sick people dying. Just because…

According to the most recent paper from CCDC, under age 40, the current estimate of fatality rate is 0.4%. Between 50-59, 1.3%. For those with no pre-existing medical conditions, 0.9%: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9... Death rates for flu vary widely by age, race and location, but these numbers are not out of the ordinary for influenza. I’m not “indifferent”, I’m calmly assessing relativ…

Fatality rate in US for 18-49 is 0.02%. Source:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

So using your most optimistic number of 0.4%, that’s a fatality rate 20x as high.

And again, you have many comments downplaying the significance of this virus based on your own assessment that it kills young and healthy people at acceptably low rates. What about the billions of people who are older, sick, or have the misfortune of being born in a country without access to decent medical care? Pretty easy to calmly assess relative risks to other people, especially if you get them wrong by a factor of 2000%.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#384

Post by mercer »

irq11 wrote: post #380
senordevnyc wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, there you go again. You’re suggesting that someone young and healthy should be more concerned about the flu, which is absolutely ridiculous and not supported by any data. The only “evidence” you posted is that the elderly and sick are most at risk, which no one was disputing, and which does not support your position that the flu is more dangerous to young and healthy people than this virus.

The flu is everywhere, right now. Today. This covid virus has infected a tiny sliver of the human population, in a select few locations, and it isn’t that dangerous if you aren’t old or sick. Practically speaking, you should be more concerned about getting hit by a car than catching this virus. You should really stop posting on this subject. You have lost all sense of perspective.

For someone 'rational' and 'cool-headed' you seem awfully hysterical, peppering this entire discussion with your certainty. It's fascinating.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#385

Post by lliamander »

irq11 wrote: post #379
lliamander wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your accusations of fear-mongering are ill-founded and un-productive. I'm of course completely factually correct that there is no vaccine for COVID-19 (although there is a SARS vaccine that may help). Which, even if it is only as deadly as the flu, is still a huge issue. I have immune-compromised family members, so I get the flu vaccine. I have no such luxury in this case. The fact that the symptoms are mild for most…

The virus is not “far more contagious” than the flu. It’s about as contagious as the flu, and maybe slightly more deadly, primarily to older/sick people. You’re panicking, you don’t understand what you’re reading, and (assuming that you aren’t just trying to spread fear) you should stop posting on this subject.

> assuming that you aren’t just trying to spread fear

You are paranoid. Stop pointing fingers, stop making accusations, and back up your points.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#386

Post by jopsen »

dom96 wrote: post #178
jopsen wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair the common flu has a fatality rate around 0.01%, sars-cov-2 is around 2%. (Not sure there is much we can do in the long run though)

Does it though? COVID-19 may actually have a much lower fatality rate as we are only getting reports of people that get symptoms, maybe that's only 10% of infections, maybe even less.

Indeed, it could also be higher..

Wishful thinking doesn't really make it so :) (Even though I really wish it did)

Whether it matters in practice I don't know.. how much can we really do ?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#387

Post by JoeAltmaier »

irq11 wrote: post #382
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This one has a 3-4% death rate and debilitating, lifelong consequences for those that 'recover'. Its a big deal. If denial makes one feel better, go for it. Post it here though, and expect to be rapidly disabused.

It does not have a 3-4% fatality rate. You are either getting bad information, or you are making things up. The latest numbers from the WHO and the CCDC are an average case fatality rate of 2.3%. This is highly likely to be an overestimate, and the deaths are skewed heavily to the old and infirm. From the most recent CCDC report [1] those under 40, case fatality was 0.2%. Under 50, 0.4%; under 60, 1.3%. For those wit…

Note the fatality rate is deaths divided by current infected. But the people dying are those that contracted the disease 4-5 days ago (folks don't die the instant they get sick). So the death rate on folks ultimately reaches nearly double the reported rate?

But draw your own conclusions:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#388

Post by wakindra »

throwlaplace wrote: post #156
jacquesm wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think the chances are that I haven't heard about that? What do you think makes this an exception? There is a lot of politics happening around this theme. Can you trust the numbers put out by the authorities? Yes, within a margin of error due to unreported cases. The article is not at all in the fearmongering category. It appears to me quite level headed and simply acknowledges that we are past the point o…

>What do you think makes this an exception? Do you realize it's completely irrational to debate unknown unknowns? Any certainty comes from bias. So you think the doctor is the tip of the iceberg but you absolutely can't know how big the iceberg is. I think the doctor isn't and honestly I can't know that either. What I do have going for me is the biased perspective that on balance the world is being run adequately and…

My two cents in this great discussion. The climate change emergency and the biodiversity collapse with no corrective measure taken whilee the stakes are so high for our survival seem to be proof that the world is NOT run adequately.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#389

Post by irq11 »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #387
irq11 wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does not have a 3-4% fatality rate. You are either getting bad information, or you are making things up. The latest numbers from the WHO and the CCDC are an average case fatality rate of 2.3%. This is highly likely to be an overestimate, and the deaths are skewed heavily to the old and infirm. From the most recent CCDC report [1] those under 40, case fatality was 0.2%. Under 50, 0.4%; under 60, 1.3%. For those wit…

Note the fatality rate is deaths divided by current infected. But the people dying are those that contracted the disease 4-5 days ago (folks don't die the instant they get sick). So the death rate on folks ultimately reaches nearly double the reported rate? But draw your own conclusions: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

No. This is completely incorrect.

The case fatality rate is the number of deaths divided by confirmed infections. This is what is being reported.

Infection Fatality Ratio changes the denominator to a model for the currently infected population. This is a smaller number, because the denominator is much larger.

There is no mortality metric being reported by reputable sources that is multiples higher than the CFR, as you suggest.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#390

Post by irq11 »

senordevnyc wrote: post #383
irq11 wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the most recent paper from CCDC, under age 40, the current estimate of fatality rate is 0.4%. Between 50-59, 1.3%. For those with no pre-existing medical conditions, 0.9%: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9... Death rates for flu vary widely by age, race and location, but these numbers are not out of the ordinary for influenza. I’m not “indifferent”, I’m calmly assessing relativ…

Fatality rate in US for 18-49 is 0.02%. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm So using your most optimistic number of 0.4%, that’s a fatality rate 20x as high. And again, you have many comments downplaying the significance of this virus based on your own assessment that it kills young and healthy people at acceptably low rates. What about the billions of people who are older, sick, or have the mi…

I am concerned about other people. It has no bearing on my advice to you, which is that unless you are old or sick, you should stop posting misinformation to HN, and go breathe into a bag in a dim room.

Maybe play some relaxing music and light a candle. (Be careful, though: you’re many hundreds of times more likely to start a fire with the candle than die from covid!)

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