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Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

virologydownunder.com

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Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#151

Post by robjan »

jessaustin wrote: post #139
robjan wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The insecurity was just caused by people literally filling their trolleys with rice as soon as the store opened every day. The government keeps a huge buffer supply which can be released in the event of genuine emergency.

Why didn't the government use some of the buffer to smooth out this apparently artificial demand spike? That is what every other nation on earth uses its agricultural surplus to do.

Because there was no emergency and people weren't starving. It just became very inconvenient to go shopping.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#152

Post by TechBro8615 »

jacquesm wrote: post #47
RobertRoberts wrote: post #34

Give me the numbers. People panic over everything imaginable. The only defense is logic. (which unfortunately is only a slow and long term defense) At this point I feel I am more likely to win the lottery and get struck my lightning twice before I get this virus. And even then, what is the death rate for healthy adults? It's amazing how easily people freak out these days.

At this point, yes. But that's not the way to look at this. The way to look at this is what will happen over the next couple of weeks/months and to what degree we can avoid community spreading once the virus achieves a foothold, which - sorry - at this point is mostly a matter of time. Containment can be done early on and if done effectively can get you back into your 'no need to worry' mode. But once containment has…

> Unless you live the life of a hermit.

Finally, my day has come. Who knew depression could be so beneficial?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#153

Post by jacquesm »

jpm_sd wrote: post #72

There is a lot of panicky misinformation out there, the WHO is calling it an "infodemic"! This Wikipedia article is doing a respectable job tracking some of the conspiracy theories and falsehoods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_... Wikipedia also has a good summary of the overall state of things: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_ou...

The way outlets such as The New York Post deal with this is absolutely irresponsible. They keep on re-posting total garbage that has been debunked multiple times and Google isn't helping by linking to it.

This is also worth keeping an eye on:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/locations-confirme...

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#154

Post by SahAssar »

hysan wrote: post #120
johnwheeler wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conspiracy theorists tend to mistake incompetence for malice; or partial incompetence for total incompetence. Hurricane Katrina doesn’t invalidate health and building codes; education; law enforcement and EPA, FAA, and SEC regulations. Decisions made are both bad and good, but it’s irrational to think the decision makers are generally untrustworthy.

I feel like there must be some sort of internet law that says, “gross incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.”

Pretty sure you are kidding, but for the benefit of future readers:

> Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#155

Post by jopsen »

anonsivalley652 wrote: post #80

PSA: spreading FUD and panic isn't helping anyone. The common flu is a "pandemic" every year, so should we freak out and buy 1000 kg of wheat while inconsistently not having any means of food production? Don't act out of fear; act out of reason, honesty and proportionality.

To be fair the common flu has a fatality rate around 0.01%, sars-cov-2 is around 2%.

(Not sure there is much we can do in the long run though)

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#156

Post by throwlaplace »

jacquesm wrote: post #113
throwlaplace wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you ever heard The expression "the exception that proves the rule"? Do you understand the meaning of the expression? It means that the rule is so good that exceptions to it are so rare that they seem significant. The prototypical examples are plane crashes.

What do you think the chances are that I haven't heard about that? What do you think makes this an exception? There is a lot of politics happening around this theme. Can you trust the numbers put out by the authorities? Yes, within a margin of error due to unreported cases. The article is not at all in the fearmongering category. It appears to me quite level headed and simply acknowledges that we are past the point o…

>What do you think makes this an exception?

Do you realize it's completely irrational to debate unknown unknowns? Any certainty comes from bias. So you think the doctor is the tip of the iceberg but you absolutely can't know how big the iceberg is. I think the doctor isn't and honestly I can't know that either. What I do have going for me is the biased perspective that on balance the world is being run adequately and if all of these subversive things were true that couldn't be the case. But I readily admit that that's circular and to the extent that it's not it's completely apriori.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#157

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

DevX101 wrote: post #134

This is one case where it's worth overreacting to. Biological epidemics are the only thing that has had the capacity to kill >50 million people in a year. In my risk classification hierarchy I put pandemics above nuclear war and wayyyy above terrorism. Yet we've spent trillions on the war on terror the past 20 years while there's no coordinated plan in the U.S. for this yet. If there's even a 2% chance of this going…

The plans the US already has for a flu pandemic should mostly carry over, no? COVID is probably worse than the seasonal flu, but it's not outside the reasonable range of what a flu pandemic could do.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#158

Post by tristanburnside »

arkades wrote: post #64
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #6

The premise of this article is that we should essentially press the “panic button” now, to get people through the shock of preparing for a pandemic while we know it’s safe to do so. > Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment eve…

> - Get extra prescription medicine now if you might need it I hate this advice. It's not "wrong," in the sense that technically it would be a good thing to do, but it's also so wrong that it transcends categories of right and wrong. Your refill schedule will not allow you to get extra prescription meds early. And if it did, your insurance wouldn't pay for it - which means paying sticker price, which means ... well,…

This advice is coming from Australia where prescriptions are subsidized by government not insurance so this is possible.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#159

Post by justin66 »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #110
patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

Do not tell people to stock up on food. There is no need and this is how you create runs on supermarkets and panic. If the situation becomes severe enough for this to become a problem, this will be organised by authorities. Keep calm, follow basic hygiene, and be ready to work from home at short notice. Maybe don't travel unless you have to. This is not the end of the world and the risk is low. Change course only if…

> Do not tell people to stock up on food. This is how you create runs on supermarkets and panic.

No. Runs on supplies generally happen well after it becomes desperately obvious that the people advising preparation measures be taken were correct. The Costcos and Walmarts of the world, and their suppliers, can very easily absorb the bump in food demand from the very few who actually plan ahead.

> If the situation becomes severe enough for this to become a problem, this will be organised by authorities.

That's adorable.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#160

Post by Freak_NL »

dbcurtis wrote: post #127
speedgoose wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we should wash our phones too. It's very simple when the phone is waterproof.

All the telephone sanitizers left on the B arc.

That was another planet in another time. We (Earth) are the descendants of the B arc.
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