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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#371

Post by gpt5 »

pattt wrote: post #299
mordae wrote: post #277

No, they are not. They are winning because West is forbidden to use Chinese models for anything work-related.

Do we have any solid evidence these models can outperform Western models in terms of quality? Or is it more: because they are forbidden, they can't get enough training data, visibility etc. to compete?

Scroll down to the leaderboard - https://arcprize.org/leaderboard

Spoiler alert - they are all towards the bottom of the leaderboard. People come up with a wide variety of excuses for why they are not used despite being offered for significantly lower cost, but the answer is simply because they don't perform well enough for now.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#372

Post by hackable_sand »

embedding-shape wrote: post #29

> The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization. puke Yeah, go ahead and run your country into the ground because of hypercapitalism and hypercommercialization, you're almost at the end game now! While the rest of us try to figure out how to actually build societies worthwhile to live in and experience, with healthcare and not waging war on our neighbors. I don't know how people can seriously…

They are trapped in the copium den

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#373

Post by UltraSane »

StevenWaterman wrote: post #83
UltraSane wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone actually DOES invent ASI and doesn't share it then EVERYONE ELSE will never stop trying to steal it.

If you have ASI that follows instructions, you can just instruct it to not get stolen and then it won't get stolen. Most logic / intuition breaks down with ASI.

It might understand how destabilizing the situation is and realize it would be better for everyone to have access to it.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#374

Post by esseph »

mghackerlady wrote: post #117
bluGill wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't a war today. However China wants Taiwan: war is future option they preparing for - they might or might not go to war but they are clearly preparing. The US is likely to get involved in such a war and I would expect Europe to join in as well. Don't ask me what Trump is doing though.

China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub

Everything their military has been doing for the past ~20yr or so has been toward capturing and securing Chinese waters and beyond, including Taiwan. It's a negotiating chip for them.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-...

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#375

Post by greenavocado »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #254
RobotToaster wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Betting your entire country's future on usury seems like a terrible idea to me, but what do I know.

You're really not going to like what happened in 1971.

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#376

Post by saltcured »

Jalad wrote: post #135
rich_sasha wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a war in the sense that there's a concern that eventually you hit a singularity and can outsmart others in ways not constrained by human scales. If you make better guns, you're still limited by how many people can carry them. You can't conquer the world just like this. But if someone invents super intelligence, they can dominate new AI research, control global economies, fight much better, and all very quickly.

> But if someone invents super intelligence, they can dominate new AI research, control global economies, fight much better, and all very quickly. After reading "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" I think this is not the correct take. If anyone creates ASI, it just means it's going to wipe everyone out, and it doesn't matter if China or the US do it first

What does "dominate new AI research" really mean?

If AI develops enough to successfully out-perform people at highly intellectual tasks, why would being first matter? Why do we need "your" AI output when we can just ask our own for a similar result?

Why do people think about this like the Manhattan Project when it could just as easily be electrification? Sure, some people made a lot of money selling light bulbs. But we didn't all have to cower under the light of the One Original Bulb and hope its nominal owner blessed us with photons.

It just seems like arbitrage to me. You exploit a momentary imbalance in the distributed market. Why do people imagine some winner-take-all scenario? Where does the fantasy of exclusivity come from?

Is there any logical reason to believe AI advances will create a moat? Or is it just a story people tell themselves because it echoes the narrative of past advances? Are these people assuming society will grant them exclusive use just because their AI result came out a little earlier than another? Why would we ever consider giving copyright or patent rights to an AI output?

Arguably, it has all become "obvious" with ordinary skill in the art once you're just prompting AI for permutations like every Hollywood producer stereotype. "Let's make it like X but tweak Y". It's getting silly, almost like people are starting to think they should have exclusive rights to a handful of cards they were dealt at the poker table.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#377

Post by ctkhn »

blahblaher wrote: post #264
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

Because the US cannot imagine anything else. Everything is a War, and the US must always win..

The US needs to start imagining something else. It's hard to think of the last war that the US won.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#378

Post by SubiculumCode »

lorecore wrote: post #232
127 wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should read about the difference between a land empire and a sea empire.

Happy to if you have any pointers. My original point is that the US kills millions of people outside of its borders, something China most definitely does not. The number is over 12 million post-WWII: https://www.worldfuturefund.org/Reports/Imperialism/usmurder...

Replace the U.S. with another world power. Would it be better or worse? Its always easy to criticize the power that is in place and treat them as if they are to blame for all the ills of the world. It is easy to criticize when you are the nation that is asked to help provide international security for commerce on the high seas. But exchange another nation in the U.S.'s place, and I guarantee you most would make similar decisions, and many (e.g. Soviet Union) would be, hands down, worse and more brutal.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#379

Post by MetaWhirledPeas »

mordae wrote: post #277

No, they are not. They are winning because West is forbidden to use Chinese models for anything work-related.

> They are winning because West is forbidden to use Chinese models for anything work-related.

Because the models hosted in China are not trusted. This is 100% a part of what makes up commercialization.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#380

Post by SubiculumCode »

nradov wrote: post #212
SubiculumCode wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By only providing degraded models to use commercially outside national defense applications would be my guess. As soon as models are a threat in terms of enabling biowarfare etc, then they just are not going to be generally released. Honestly, I think its quite possible that models will be retrained with gaps in their knowledge. e.g. a coding model for commercial use probably doesn't need to have deep knowledge of bi…

What a hilariously uninformed comment. LLMs are not the limiting factor in biowarfare.

LLMs absolutely have the potential to increase the risk of small nation biowarfare and bioterrorism more generally. That you don't believe so is dangerously naive.
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