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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#371

Post by MaxPock »

kolanos wrote: post #351
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

> At least, I imagine the CEOs of GM, Ford, Boeing, etc. might have a thing or two to say about seeing China disappear as a market where they can do business to sell stuff.... They largely weren't doing this anyway due to Chinese economic policy. For example: > Ford's market share in China has declined significantly.In 2024, Ford's market share was 1.6%, down from a peak of 4.7% in 2015. Over the past three years, Fo…

GM used to sell more cars in China than in the US .Same with VW , Mercedes and BMW

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#372

Post by tomcar288 »

FollowingTheDao wrote: post #167
jghn wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I both agree and have been worried that this is overly reductive. As far as I can tell, literally nothing that I buy regularly is directly sourced from China. Or anywhere other than the US & neighboring countries. The vast majority of my groceries are locally sourced. And the vast majority of the rest come from expected regions, for instance San Marzano tomatoes from Italy. I do not regularly buy clothes, children's…

If people can’t buy Chinese tomatoes, what kind of tomatoes do you think they’re going to buy m? the same ones that you do! That means the prices of your tomatoes are going to go up! No one is going to be immune from these pricing increases from the tariffs.

i grow a couple hundred pounds of tomatoes in my backyard every year. I'd happily sell some to my neighbors.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#373

Post by kolanos »

taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

It's a good thing the United States doesn't depend on China for toilet paper, then.

> The United States primarily sources its toilet paper domestically, with about 90% being manufactured within the country.However, a significant portion of imports come from Canada and Mexico.

In fact, the United States does not depend on China for any essential consumer goods from what I can find.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#374

Post by wahern »

corimaith wrote: post #357
ryandrake wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worst case all this triggers a recession. Recession is probably the best case scenario. If only we get through this with just a recession! The world's economic inter-dependence is one of the things that have kept World War 3 at bay for decades. Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. Russia shows what happens when you economically isolate a country with sa…

>Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. World War 1 begs to differ, hell even the Russian invasion of Crimea back in 2014 begs to differ. Economic interdependence dosen't stop authoritarians, it only threatens democracies with a larger margin for dissent.

WWI started in countries (Balkans) with the least economic interdependence, then pulled in more Western European countries through defense alliances. While technically someone could have put the brakes on, it was an autopilot sort of thing. The lesson of WWI is that if you're going to enter into defense agreements that obligate you, be careful to whom you're wedding yourself. In particular, don't wed yourself to someone who has much less to lose than you do.

One of the lessons from the prelude to WWII is to be careful about trade imbalances, as they can breed instability and radicalism. During the 1920s the US enjoyed huge trade surpluses with Europe, which caused all manner of monetary and labor dislocation in Europe. Worse, the US wasn't content with this surplus, so similar to modern China they erected additional barriers to imports to try to have their cake and eat it, too. These effects were amplified by the gold standard, which accelerated deflation and unemployment in Europe, and accelerated (stock market) inflation in the US. And of course all these ill effects were amplified again for Germany.

Toward the end of the 1920s and during the 1930s, the whole system was disassembled as every country, understandably, retreated to lick its wounds. Economic interdependence is critical to maintaining global security, but that interdependence itself isn't self-sustaining. It can fall apart if dislocations aren't managed well across the system. For example, the lessons from the 1990s and early 2000s is, "just go back to college or trade school" is an absolutely horrible approach to dealing with labor dislocation. Significant changes in labor structure need to happen inter-generationally, not intra-generationally.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#375

Post by kccqzy »

kolanos wrote: post #351
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

> At least, I imagine the CEOs of GM, Ford, Boeing, etc. might have a thing or two to say about seeing China disappear as a market where they can do business to sell stuff.... They largely weren't doing this anyway due to Chinese economic policy. For example: > Ford's market share in China has declined significantly.In 2024, Ford's market share was 1.6%, down from a peak of 4.7% in 2015. Over the past three years, Fo…

Ford is a bad example because the Chinese never really liked American cars. Before the EV boom they preferred BBA (Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi). Right now it's homegrown brands.

Pharmaceuticals would be a slightly better example.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#376

Post by apercu »

robomartin wrote: post #269
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

You lost me at Kevin O’Leary. He’s historically been a dishonest and unethical snake oil salesman and I doubt he’s changed.

One of my career highlights was having him explain how much it will do for my career to do his project at a discount (I was helping a friend as a favor) and I told Kevin that it was just as likely to have the opposite effect.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#377

Post by dakr »

tomcar288 wrote: post #328
taylodl wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the same boat as you, trying to figure out the impacts of all this. We're hearing reports that the ports are empty, and we know the CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot recently visited Trump to warn him of empty store shelves. The fact that these key ports are seeing reduced shipments corroborates their warning. Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, said just yesterday that h…

the question is which shelves. Not ALL shelves. only 13% of our stuff comes from China. they might run out of toys and electric shavers but there will still be a lot left to buy.

You didn't cite a source there, but aside from finished products, American companies that make things domestically source many materials from China. I remember a few years ago a news story about a company that makes crab pots being impacted because the steel wire they use was imported from China. There are a lot of secondary impacts.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#378

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft »

bluGill wrote: post #325
xienze wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've now been around long enough to remember people saying this 10-20 years ago. Seems to be plenty of manufacturing still happening. “Plenty” but still less overall than 10-20 years ago, 30, 40, 50 years ago. There’s a quite clear trend to zero here.

The only trend is the amount of labor in manufacturing. the US produces just as much or more than any other year. However we do it on far less labor.

Not sure how this comforts anyone. We need labor, there aren't enough spa management and pet groomer positions to build an economy upon. What good does it do for anyone that we manufacture more, if there aren't enough good-paying jobs to go around to support a broad consumer base for those same products you say are being manufactured without (much) labor?

Why would any foreign nation even want to manufacture goods to ship here, if there's nothing much to buy with our currency? If our currency does devalue, we run the risk of not being able to import what we need, and not being able to afford to tool up to manufacture it domestically. And yet trends are clear that in many industrial sectors US manufacturing has already fallen to what might as well be zero.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#379

Post by [deleted] »

robomartin wrote: post #269
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

[deleted]

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#380

Post by formerly_proven »

robomartin wrote: post #269
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

Manufacturing investment in the US hit all time highs during Biden, by far.
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