Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week • Hacker News Board

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#321

Post by xienze » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:46 PM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #148

SoftTalker wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone here is worried about it from the American side, but China has motivation to settle this too, so they can continue to sell their enshitified plastic crap. It's not like most other wealthy countries want it, at least not any more than they are already buying.

China is holding pretty much all the cards here. First, it has a command economy. It's much more equipped to handle this in keeping factories afloat and people employed and housed. Second, the US is ~15% of China's exports and a lot of those exports will continue even with tariffs. Some by diversified supply chains (eg "laundering" Chinese made goods through Vietnam) or the Chinese goods are so low cost that the tari…

> Second, the US is ~15% of China's exports and a lot of those exports will continue even with tariffs.

But I was told the ports were empty and the shelves would be bare. That implies almost all of that 15% being shut down, doesn’t it?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#322

Post by kaikai » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:48 PM UTC

Kneedler wrote: post #306

I was going to purchase a shipping container for my property in the US a few days ago, but the company I was talking with has raised their prices 70% over the quote I got 2-3 weeks prior.

Oh no, I’m in the same situation and was wondering how this would affect the quote.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#323

Post by bluGill » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:48 PM UTC

dehrmann wrote: post #297

robomartin wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

Why would the US and EU losing manufacturing be bad? > How long can any country survive this kind of inequity? What worries me more is that the US has been funding global military security through deficit spending funded by foreign investors (who got their dollars from US trade). We're cutting legs off that stool, so we might see more wars and a declining dollar, never mind fewer cheap imports.

> Why would the US and EU losing manufacturing be bad?

Because if they can't make thing you can win a war - just stop all their trade and then invade. When they are limited to stick and stone while you have guns war is easy to win.

Of course in reality the US and EU are not in danger of losing all manufacturing, and their military leaders are will aware of this and so put extra effort into keeping some important manufacturing in the country. Politicians are generally (but not always!) aware of this and try to be friends with others who can make things you don't make locally.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#324

Post by quickthrowman » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:49 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #311

projectazorian wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. I've now been around long enough to remember people saying this 10-20 years ago. Seems to be plenty of manufacturing st…

> I've now been around long enough to remember people saying this 10-20 years ago. Seems to be plenty of manufacturing still happening. “Plenty” but still less overall than 10-20 years ago, 30, 40, 50 years ago. There’s a quite clear trend to zero here.

This graph of US manufacturing output in gross dollars suggests otherwise: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni...

If you could explain why it’s trending to zero when the dollar value of American manufacturing outputs keeps rising, I’d appreciate it.

There are plenty of other charts that contradict you on the St Louis Fed FRED website.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#325

Post by bluGill » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:50 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #311

projectazorian wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. I've now been around long enough to remember people saying this 10-20 years ago. Seems to be plenty of manufacturing st…

> I've now been around long enough to remember people saying this 10-20 years ago. Seems to be plenty of manufacturing still happening. “Plenty” but still less overall than 10-20 years ago, 30, 40, 50 years ago. There’s a quite clear trend to zero here.

The only trend is the amount of labor in manufacturing. the US produces just as much or more than any other year. However we do it on far less labor.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#326

Post by taylodl » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:51 PM UTC

unethical_ban wrote: post #135

bilbo0s wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's surprising that we would actually vote for this of our own free will. That's gotta be something historians will puzzle over for the next two hundred years. It's mind blowing that we did that. Stepping a level lower even, how, on Earth, could our system possibly have produced Harris, Vance and Trump as the options? Then you step a level lower than that, and even the challengers were like, DeSantis and Haley? It w…

The two party system, forced on us by plurality voting, is the reason people feel they don't have a choice. Pick one of two very different sides. If a third candidate tries to enter the race, they harm themselves and the person they are similar to, and they help the opposition. Any form of ranked voting will rid us of this restriction and allow more candidates to run for an office, and allow citizens to vote their tr…

What you're talking about is known as Duverger's Law - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger's_law

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#327

Post by pests » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:51 PM UTC

sbuttgereit wrote: post #155

trebligdivad wrote: post #21

The youtuber 'What's going on with shipping?' has a good description in; it includes pointers to loads of sites with the actual data. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GgcIuQ4X5k

Sal Mercogliano who runs "What's Going On with Shipping?" is one of the best informed commentators in the subjects of logistics and shipping. He's also a skilled presenter... enough so that I subscribe to his channel and I've not got any real special interest in subject (but I do recognize it's economic importance). Also, in a different comment, his work at Campbell is mentioned, but I think that leaves open why he h…

Been seeing his videos pop up more. Wasn’t sure if it was completely legit or just reactionary takes but I’ll check one out now thanks.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#328

Post by tomcar288 » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:51 PM UTC

taylodl wrote: post #195

SwamyM wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen? The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

I'm in the same boat as you, trying to figure out the impacts of all this. We're hearing reports that the ports are empty, and we know the CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot recently visited Trump to warn him of empty store shelves. The fact that these key ports are seeing reduced shipments corroborates their warning. Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, said just yesterday that h…

the question is which shelves. Not ALL shelves. only 13% of our stuff comes from China. they might run out of toys and electric shavers but there will still be a lot left to buy.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#329

Post by 999900000999 » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:51 PM UTC

parineum wrote: post #271

bilbo0s wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's surprising that we would actually vote for this of our own free will. That's gotta be something historians will puzzle over for the next two hundred years. It's mind blowing that we did that. Stepping a level lower even, how, on Earth, could our system possibly have produced Harris, Vance and Trump as the options? Then you step a level lower than that, and even the challengers were like, DeSantis and Haley? It w…

> Stepping a level lower even, how, on Earth, could our system possibly have produced Harris, Vance and Trump as the options? Then you step a level lower than that, and even the challengers were like, DeSantis and Haley? I guess you forgot about the corpse of Biden. Harris belongs in that "challengers" category except she had less support than DeSantis and Haley (from both Democrats and Republicans!). Harris has neve…

It started in 2008. The Democratic party tried to rig it for Clinton.

I'm sure she's a wonderful person in real life, but she's one of the most unpopular people to ever run for office.

Obama actually is likeable, easily winning the primary and both elections.

The Dems, because deep down they'd rather have the GOP over real progressives. Decided to rig it for Hillary again in 2016. Sanders had an actual base, but the DNC didn't want him to win.

Biden was a rigged candidate too, but the pandemic swayed things in his direction.

With Harris, the Dems decide to skip the rigged primary, the little people (the actual voters) don't need to have a say. Here's your moderate Republican from the mid 90s.

At least the Republicans didn't rig every primary they've had since 2008. They don't play the super delegate dance.

Well... Time to try and establish residency elsewhere.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#330

Post by bluGill » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:53 PM UTC

dmarlow wrote: post #316

pbronez wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the elephants in the room: Intellectual property theft. Yup. China has been systematically stealing the IP of anything made in their country since forever. Companies kept falling for it because the potential market looked so big. Now BYD makes cars as good as Tesla and it's all #ShockedPikachuFace

Doesn't Tesla have an open patent philosophy? I've heard Musk say that if someone builds a better electric car and it causes the end of Tesla, he's fine with that.

He has said that, but I haven't seen any legal paperwork to back it up.

Not that is matters. Cars, including electric cars have been around for 100 years. There are very little important patents he could have. Sure there is a lot you can patent, but the vast majority is details that are trivial for any competent engineer to work around just using known prior art.

The important patents are likely in batteries which Tesla doesn't develop. Or chargers, but again the important details come with the battery.

TESLA might have some patents on the NACS connector and similar things. Those are easy to work around, but you wouldn't want to.