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Trump wins presidency for second time

thehill.com

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Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#372

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This seems like a reasonably good analysis, but Trump's frequent campaign promise to deport all the "illegal immigrants" seems like it might deserve a prominent mention, even if only to explain why you don't think it will happen. During the campaign, Trump often defined "illegal immigrants" as 20 million people or more, some of whom have US residency visas that Trump thinks they shouldn't have gotten and therefore aren't "illegal" in the conventional sense.

If it does happen, it will be the largest "ethnic cleansing" in human history—bigger than the Yugoslavian migrations, bigger than the Armenian genocide, bigger than the Holocaust, bigger than the Holodomor, bigger than the US's previous forced removals of Native Americans. I say "ethnic" because it's primarily directed at people who are dark-skinned because of their Native American ancestry and driven by racism against them. It isn't directed against white illegal immigrants like Elon Musk and Melania Trump were.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#373
It's extremely gross that I already see Democrats blaming the fact that Harris was a woman. They're going to play that card rather than admit that their message and agenda is falling flat. Trump should not be hard to beat. He has never been broadly popular. Democrats keep losing to him because they refuse to listen to anyone but their own echo chamber. They lost in 2016 and almost in 2020 and learned nothing.

Speaking of... this has firmly convinced me that deplatforming is the wrong answer. All it has done is create echo chambers. All I see is Democrats scratching their heads and blaming and fuming because they can't possibly understand why they lost. That's because they hang out in places like this or /r/politics and they've all moved to coastal cities with left-leaning political environments. If Harris had won in a landslide you'd see the exact same thing on the other side because they, too, are in echo chambers.

I did get one thing I was hoping for: a clear result. I was hoping whichever way it went it would be unambiguous to avoid a bunch of conspiracy theories and fighting.

Edit: one more takeaway: the traditional media is dead. Toast. They had no idea what was happening and all their takes are basically empty hand waving. They're absolutely clueless and out of touch and no longer have any influence.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#374

Doesn't seem to be much commentary here on what an axis of Musk/Vance/Thiel (and Andreesen, etc.) influence and power in the US federal administration now means for the technology sector. Remember it is Musk who began the wave of layoffs a bit over two years ago. Bezos evidently saw the way the wind was blowing already. I also see almost zero discussion about climate change policy. For many of us non-Americans, this…

What are your thoughts on it? Why are the layoffs related?

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#376

Parties basically switched sides this election. From 2008 to now: - Pro war party: Repubs -> Dems - Dick Cheney party: Repubs -> Dems - Elitist party: Repubs -> Dems - Working class party: Dems -> Repubs - Pro free speech party: Dems -> Repubs - Bigger spending party: Dems -> Repubs - Skeptical of large corps: Dems -> Repubs There are some issues where they haven't switched (eg. abortion)

Trump doesn’t care about abortion at all, yet for some reason Dems think it‘ll be Handmaid‘s Tale. States can do what they want.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#377

From a game theoretical perspective this is a good result. It is a clear reiteration of the message to the Democrats: you won't win by claiming to be 0.1% less bad. The Democrats should have fielded a strong personality in their own right. This is not about left or right. It's about mobilizing people by giving them something to care about. "More of the same" and "not like that guy" isn't very enticing. I don't think…

This is an extremely bizarre take. People just re-elected someone who tried to overthrow the government and is a complete know-nothing. It's well reported that he doesn't actually do anything during his presidency until he acts on a whim with some nonsensical action.

You claiming this is a good result from any perspective is so strange. If anything, it shows the U.S. is a lost cause and that the majority of Americans are narcissists alongside the person they just elected.

The Republicans have won by actively dumbing down and pigeonholing their constituency.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#378
post #313

the biggest problem is the climate. with trump winning, most/all of the climate policies will be revered irreparably damaging our planet bringing us to the brink of extinction. ofc it won't be all trump fault, current trends are gloomy enough yet those are the very last few years to actually do something..

as someone from eu - doesn't us now/under dems extract top amount of fossils from all the time? I mean it's not like it was good now. It looks like it'll get worse but the current path wasn't good either...

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#379

What's the best way for someone from one of the groups that Republicans hate to move to a Western European or Nordic nation where they are less likely to be marginalized or threatened? I'm sure there will be plenty of time to analyze exactly what happened, but right now my only concern is getting out.

go get em tiger

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#380
Foreign policy under Trump will generally be isolationist.

- US out of NATO? Trump will at least threaten that. The larger European countries are currently weak militarily by historical standards. There does not seem to be enough will in Europe to spend at US levels, outside of the countries on the front line, such as Poland and Finland.

- Ukraine war: Heavy US support for Ukraine probably stops. Whether Ukraine surrenders is up to Ukraine. Ukraine can fight on, but won't win much. Trump will meet with Putin and will give Putin much of what he asks for.

- Israel's wars: US support continues.

- China vs. Taiwan: Reduced support for Taiwan. China starts treating the area inside the nine lines as their own lake, and no US Navy craft go there. Pressure on Taiwan increases. China will attempt to get Taiwan to cave without actually invading. A blockade is possible.

- Trade with China: heavy protectionism on the US side. Few other countries will go along. Overall, China's influence in the world will increase.

- China's influence in South America will continue to increase. This isn't noticed much in the US, but it's big. South America now trades more with China than with the US. China controls about 40 ports in South America. The US had military bases around the world. China builds ports.

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