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The mutation that helps Delta spread

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#371

Post by sreque »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #275
sreque wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your biggest problem is that your data isn't accurate. The page notes that it's case count isn't necessarily correct. This page shows the total case delta at 650 for today versus yesterday: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread Whereas the spreadsheet from your page says 426. It's not even clear to me that the 650 number is accurate because not everyone may necessarily be reporting they have COVID.…

Not sure which spreadsheet you're talking about, the page I linked to has a series of feeds, and if you download today's CSV and sum all 4 case count columns it adds up to 650. 426 is the unvaccinated count. 650 is the count of all cases. Date covid19_cases_unvac covid19_cases_partial_vac covid19_cases_full_vac covid19_cases_vac_unknown 2021-08-20 426 64 103 57 BTW, it's not "my page"; it's the official gov't of Onta…

You're right. We both made an analytical mistake, although yours was much bigger. If that means I don't read, then you must not read well either. Congrats on devolving to personal insults about my character though. I guess that means you ran out of data-based arguments.

If we adjust for my mistake and make 426 the denominator, the odds go up to 3.5%. If we take into account that at least half of cases go unreported, the odds drop to 1.75% or lower. If we take into account that 25% or more ICU COVID cases aren't really COVID-related, (hard to find data on that but it was what was reported that way for Florida last week), the odds go down to 1.3%.

I apparently read well enough to instantly spot that 10% ICU conversion of infected unvaccinated is a bogus number. And my Israel data mistake didn't affect my conclusions at all. Maybe you should work on your reading?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#372

Post by tiahura »

dcolkitt wrote: post #354
jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

There’s a question of preferences that too often gets buried in this debate. If Covid becomes endemic at around its current severity, what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever? For me personally, Covid would have to be at least 100 times worse before I’d support masking forever. But I get the sense that some people barely see any downside to it. I think these cross-views drive so much if t…

“what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever?”

That’s the question our leaders seem to be terrified to answer. How long until Fauci admits that its not just going to go away?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#373

Post by tux1968 »

TillE wrote: post #368
tux1968 wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vaccinated are not less likely to be infected. The vaccine can not stop infection, it can only help your body fight off the effects of infection.

You're describing mere exposure, which is quite unlikely to progress to an actual infection (a positive test result) among the vaccinated.

I'm not describing exposure, i'm talking about infection where the virus enters the bloodstream, regardless of test results (which aren't perfect and may not even be taken if the person is asymptomatic).

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#374

Post by bodyfour »

walterbell wrote: post #326
undersuit wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many were infected multiple times in the last 18 months?

I don't have the Israel numbers, but UK data shows 137 confirmed cases of reinfection out of 5.2 million first-positive PCR tests, which works out to 0.003%, see charge on page 18, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

I would be cautious about interpreting those numbers without a bit of nuance.

The original spring 2020 outbreak in the UK was huge, affecting a sizable percentage of the population. However at that time PCR testing was nowhere near scaled up to the point that all of these cases could be tested.

Therefore if you were infected in the first wave, recovered, and are now reinfected 16 months later you probably aren't going to be one of those 137 because it's quite unlikely you were PCR tested the first time around.

That's not to say reinfection is super-common either, but it's probably at least an order of magnitude (or possibly even two) more common than that raw percentage would suggest. In other words, you've produced a statistic with zero significant figures of accuracy.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#375

Post by resource0x »

stakkur wrote: post #333
jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

Current breakthrough rate in the US is .004%, including Delta. In fact, vaccines are generally working as well or better than expected against all known variants.

Could you please give a scientific explanation of the difference between the most vaccinated country and one of the least vaccinated countries located next to it https://www.google.com/search?q=israel+covid+cases&rlz=1C1CH...

https://www.google.com/search?q=palestine+covid+cases&rlz=1C......

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#376

Post by ls612 »

aflag wrote: post #370
dcolkitt wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a question of preferences that too often gets buried in this debate. If Covid becomes endemic at around its current severity, what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever? For me personally, Covid would have to be at least 100 times worse before I’d support masking forever. But I get the sense that some people barely see any downside to it. I think these cross-views drive so much if t…

What's so bad about face masks? Just trying to understand.

I for one like having the right to show my face in public

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#377

Post by ls612 »

pama wrote: post #308
tasogare wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The point is that it does seem like this Delta variant breaks through regularly and it does seem (again, purely anecdotal) like it's v infectious. Of course the thing to emphasise is that, whilst it might break through, the vaccine still stops serious illness to a high degree. If numbers from IHU Méditerranée are to be believed, the Indian variant is about 6 times less dangerous than the English one. Way more infec…

Assuming that all of Florida has the delta variant, right now 53% of all adult ICU patients is with COVID-19, and the total people in hospitals with COVID is about 79 per 100K. So I don’t understand why anyone thinks this variant is less dangerous. https://www.fha.org/covid-19.html

Less dangerous on an average individual level, more dangerous since its so contagious and can infect every last unvaccinated person who doesn't have antibodies (and a few who do).

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#378

Post by breck »

aplummer wrote: post #285
civilized wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compulsory mass vaccination using the current vaccines poses a serious public health risk [1][2][3] None of your references say this or anything remotely implying this. Backing up a provocative claim with a snowblind of irrelevant references is a shameful misinformation tactic and you should stop doing it immediately. Doing it in a public health context is particularly dangerous and frankly disgusting.

Thanks for adding this. Compulsory mass vaccination is one of the greatest medical miracles in human history, possibly the actual single greatest. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_lung#/media/File:Poumon_a...

According to a 2012 NEJM survey, #1 is anesthesia.

https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1016/j.sjpain.2013...

IIRC it then went X-Rays and Antibiotics, but can't find source ATM.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#379

Post by Koshkin »

dcolkitt wrote: post #354
jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

There’s a question of preferences that too often gets buried in this debate. If Covid becomes endemic at around its current severity, what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever? For me personally, Covid would have to be at least 100 times worse before I’d support masking forever. But I get the sense that some people barely see any downside to it. I think these cross-views drive so much if t…

For you personally, with Covid being 100 times as bad as it has already been, wearing or not wearing a mask would most likely no longer make any difference.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#380

Post by soledades »

aflag wrote: post #370
dcolkitt wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a question of preferences that too often gets buried in this debate. If Covid becomes endemic at around its current severity, what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever? For me personally, Covid would have to be at least 100 times worse before I’d support masking forever. But I get the sense that some people barely see any downside to it. I think these cross-views drive so much if t…

What's so bad about face masks? Just trying to understand.

There is a material difference between a world of masks and a world of faces.
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