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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#371

Post by newacct583 »

timr wrote: post #271
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…

For clarity: are you genuinely claiming that you believe school closures prevent influenza transmission but that you think other related mitigation strategies like mask-wearing, restaurant closures, work-from-home, etc... don't?

That seems a little denialist, honestly.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#372

Post by ggggtez »

cortesoft wrote: post #140
ggggtez wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>worldwide Because people outside the US actually see their doctors when they get sick? Or people who are otherwise older/younger/immunocompromised etc. Don't just assume that everyone is a young healthy person like yourself.

I don't think not going to the doctor for mild illnesses is a strictly US thing.

The flu isn't a "mild illness" for everyone. Again, stop assuming that everyone is as healthy as you are. The flu kills many people every year.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#373

Post by Majromax »

samatman wrote: post #354
Majromax wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and the small difference in R0 is crude thinking. Given the reproduction number appears as the base of an exponent, I would not consider the difference "small." If influenza has a typical R0 of about 2, reducing contacts by 50% would make its growth non-exponential. If covid has a typical R0 of about 2.5, doing the same would require a further 20% reduction of contacts, to 40% of baseline rather than 50%. Since pop…

Small but important correction: nothing can make epidemiological spread non-exponential. Driving base reproduction below one additional infection per infected patient means the exponent is less than one, so the incidence of the disease rapidly decreases. This decrease is also exponential by definition: infection is simply an exponential process, and an exponential equation doesn't stop being what it is when the expon…

> The steady state is exactly 1, which is like balancing a pencil on its point.

At exactly one, it's indeterminate; you could see a subexponential growth or decay. With no exponential terms remaining, lower-order terms that are ordinarily hidden by exponential growth become the dominant observables. (Since epidemic spread is also random, you're much more likely to see the stochastic terms show up in the overall statistics in these cases. You really can be lucky or unlucky with Rt ~= 1, but there's no persistent luck with Rt >> 1.)

This is also important before community spreading sets in, and it is the mechanism by which contact tracing can work. Rather than change the general susceptibility of the population to the disease (changing the effective reproduction number), contact tracing tries to operate at the level of individual cases in ways that cannot be scaled to uncontrolled community spreading (even if Rt is close to 1).

> and the border closures kept mutations from traveling: and influenza is notoriously mutation-prone.

Perhaps, but are influenza mutations an important effect within a single flu season? I know the determination of to-be-dominant strains has a great effect on the composition of each season's flu vaccine, but as far as I am aware we don't see declining flu vaccine efficacy over a season.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#374

Post by xadhominemx »

rubicon33 wrote: post #318
aarondia wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

> Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life.

I highly doubt this is the case. And in any event, how would you know?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#375

Post by Majromax »

MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #363
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

How can you explain people getting covid but not the flu when nothing changed when places started opening up? It sounds more like poor data reporting more than anything else and I will take that to my grave.

> How can you explain people getting covid but not the flu when nothing changed when places started opening up?

Covid starts from a higher baseline level of cases, and it has a higher transmission rate. When societies "open up" (resume social contacts; it's more than just government lockdowns), then we'd expect to see covid cases climb before flu cases. In fact, seeing the opposite would be very surprising.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#376

Post by gilbetron »

andreygrehov wrote: post #247
yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

Most likely due to people staying at home. I don't believe a mask can in any way protect one from catching a virus [1]. Edit: if you downvote, please, comment why. I could be wrong, so would love to know your arguments. [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7680614/

That source is awful, just an opinion piece, largely. "Wearing facemasks has been demonstrated to have substantial adverse physiological and psychological effects. " It's literally the opposite. Pure garbage, that link.

Here's some quality sources:

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118?fbclid=IwAR0j...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666142X2...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173047v...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#377

Post by Igelau »

jcwayne wrote: post #340
pchristensen wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My phrase is "The world is a filthy biological soup", so the less we're in the world, the less covered in soup we are.

I prefer "walking petri dish".

I refer to mine as pint-sized biological weapons labs. I never thought catching a cold was such a big deal until I caught one that had been mutated first by preschoolers.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#378

Post by NaturalPhallacy »

timr wrote: post #271
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…

Did we even test for the flu? Or did we just presume that flu cases were COIVD because the symptoms are so similar?

The idea that the flu just 'disappeared' despite world trade continuing just sets off my bullshit detectors. Between all the countries that did little or nothing initially, and the people who refused to wear masks and didn't lock down...there's just no way it dropped to zero. Less? Sure. But gone? I simply don't believe it.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#379

Post by Godel_unicode »

MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #363
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

How can you explain people getting covid but not the flu when nothing changed when places started opening up? It sounds more like poor data reporting more than anything else and I will take that to my grave.

> ...and I will take that to my grave

"When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?"

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#380

Post by ceejayoz »

andreygrehov wrote: post #360
ceejayoz wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm confused. Those are all different authors. From the "Medical Hypotheses" journal the Forbes article is criticizing for poor editorial control, and citing those as examples. At least read the claim you're attempting to debunk. > Once again, one can publish at Forbes whatever the hell they want. It costs a few hundred bucks. Apparently that's also true for the "Medical Hypotheses" journal.

I read the Reuters fact-check article. In fact, there are no facts. It says that the publication has been retracted, but from what I can see, that's not true. CDC's current response on masks is positive, however their initial response was negative. Same for WHO. All in all, Reuters rely on a single source – Nature. Nature.com is indeed a legitimate source, however the article is massive, so I can't say for sure if re…

> It says that the publication has been retracted, but from what I can see, that's not true.

I'm sorry, you'll base your beliefs on an article in "Medical Hypotheses", but conclude that Reuters is making up an Elsevier spokesperson?

I thought "quoting Reuters is fine"; now they're fake news?

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