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No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

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Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#371

Post by deevolution »

foepys wrote: post #293
natmaka wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is not Bitcoin per se, it is the current state of the real world, where anyone can "buy" and "sell" Bitcoin for legal tender. Bitcoin, in a world where it is the sole currency, has the benefits you quoted.

No. There are currently two super powerful individuals fighting and are allegedly dragging down every thing on the market just because they don't like each other. What makes you think that this would be a good state of affairs for a world currency?

>There are currently two super powerful individuals fighting and are allegedly dragging down every thing on the market just because they don't like each other.

Kind of like how nations compete and in the process to drag everyone else down: Like US and China trade war.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#372

Post by wpietri »

antidesitter wrote: post #304
wpietri wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. If we want to do a true benefit calculation, we have to look at alternate futures. One important future to avert is where organized crime is rampant. Even if we look at only the economic costs, one study in Italy suggests mafia domination cost 16% of per-capita GDP. Given the US's $20 trillion GDP, that's quite a lot. And that's ignoring people's preference for security and safety. As an entrepreneur, for ex…

> One important future to avert is where organized crime is rampant... one study in Italy suggests mafia domination cost 16% of per-capita GDP. Given the US's $20 trillion GDP, that's quite a lot. You’re making two separate, tenuous extrapolations here. Can you justify them?

I probably can. Did you want to ask some specific question? Better, do you you have a way of calculating path-not-taken costs for rampant organized crime that you think might be more effective?

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#373

Post by wpietri »

natmaka wrote: post #277
wpietri wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's fascinating that this is 100% different than what Bitcoin was sold as. The theory of Bitcoin was basically "money without people". You wouldn't have to worry about governments and politics; value would be sent and stored in pure pieces of math. Mere governments couldn't possibly do as well as the glorious algorithms wisely fixed in advance by, etc, etc. But if you're right, Bitcoin has way more politics…

The problem here is not Bitcoin per se, it is the current state of the real world, where anyone can "buy" and "sell" Bitcoin for legal tender. Bitcoin, in a world where it is the sole currency, has the benefits you quoted.

Ah, of course. Bitcoin can never fail, it can only be failed.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#374

Post by mrlala »

strasse86 wrote: post #50
overcast wrote: post #4

That's what happens when you screw over the general public in a giant pump and dump. There is just no more money left to steal. First time was for the early adopters at $1000, second time was for the late majority at $19,000. You're not going to see that happen again.

"You're not going to see that happen again." I've heard that during the last 4 bear markets. Give it some years it always comes back stronger to absorb fresh money

>it always comes back stronger

Until it doesn't.

>I've heard that during the last 4 bear markets.

You mean the 'bear markets' that virtually no one in the world knew about, with market caps so low that no one gave a shit?

Comparing the last 1.5 year of bitcoin to anything before that is naive as hell.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#375

Post by mrlala »

pavel_lishin wrote: post #128
dragontamer wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that all that computing power still exists. If the hashrate drops, then a 51% attack becomes possible. Remember that those mining farms still exist, even if they've temporarily turned off their mining equipment. Someone can turn all that equipment on suddenly to attack the network and start double-spending their coins. In effect: the hashrate MUST remain high if the BTC network is to remain secure. Tha…

> The electricity usage will remain high, OR a 51% attack will happen. The electricity usage can never drop without severe risk to the entire system. Sounds like the best argument against bitcoin I've heard yet.

Hmm... actually that is interesting, what if there was some kind of event that knocked out the majority of electronics or power temporarily (solar flare type stuff).. as things are coming back on, wouldn't people be able to take advantage of exactly that situation?

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#376

Post by prewett »

ceejayoz wrote: post #78
emerongi wrote: post #23

Bitcoin still has a $77B market cap. This is bigger than many well-known and long-living companies. Let's be real - Bitcoin still has a long way to drop.

Market cap is a silly way to look at crypto. A well-known and long-living company that went from $19k/share to $4k/share would be rightly deemed to be struggling, and folks would have concerns about its long-term potential.

The thing about a company is that its share price doesn't have to be related to the health of the company. Lots of companies' share prices dropped 50% in 2008, but that didn't mean that the firms were struggling, it meant that people were afraid of the firm struggling, or even merely afraid that they wouldn't get their money out so they sold at a loss to get something. Imagine if Coca Cola (KO) dropped 50% today. Is KO struggling? Not at all. You have cause and effect backwards. The firm deemed to be struggling tends to have its share price decrease. And those that can tell the difference between a company that appears to be struggling and one that actually is struggling make money.

Unlike most companies, though, which provide tangible goods and services for which people pay and has factories and stores and real estate you could sell, Bitcoin is just a list of numbers floating around.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#377

Post by charlesdm »

aviv wrote: post #214
jeletonskelly wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trading volume has dropped significantly over the last 6 months. Large holders have been patient waiting for new money to enter the market. Eventually, when the only activity is a few automated traders and the exchange liquidity provider, large holders are faced with opportunity costs of investing in something else and the limited liquidity the market can absorb as they exit. It's a domino effect as they see each oth…

The Saudis facing confiscation and raids back home dumped their cash into Bitcoin which fueled the rally to $20k. They are now pulling the money out.

And Santa wears a hat

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#378

Post by antidesitter »

wpietri wrote: post #372
antidesitter wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One important future to avert is where organized crime is rampant... one study in Italy suggests mafia domination cost 16% of per-capita GDP. Given the US's $20 trillion GDP, that's quite a lot. You’re making two separate, tenuous extrapolations here. Can you justify them?

I probably can. Did you want to ask some specific question? Better, do you you have a way of calculating path-not-taken costs for rampant organized crime that you think might be more effective?

I didn't see any calculation in the parent comment.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#379

Post by splintercell »

conanbatt wrote: post #248
simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

For all the hype, bitcoin really is not worth its price to me. I would not sacrifice 4k to have 1 bitcoin for its use today. Its expensive, slow and inconvenient to transfer. When it hit 18k-20k last december it was absolutely nuts. Bitcoin is not there: it has no mainstream product market fit. Its pretty useless. And it hasn't been fulfilling its expectations of not being so.

What do you think about Gwern's article on Bitcoin from 2011?

https://www.gwern.net/Bitcoin-is-Worse-is-Better

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#380

Post by Ologn »

apo wrote: post #308

Having seen four of these major wipeouts over the years, here's the pattern for this highly cyclical spectacle: 1. Nobody cares about Bitcoin. If you tell anyone you bought it, they either shrug or laugh. 2. Bitcoin refuses to die. The long-predicted technology show-stoppers never happen and the network keeps chugging. A small but dedicated group of users continues using it on a regular basis. 3. Speculators who had…

The problem with this hypothesis is that step 9 kept having a higher and higher Bitcoin market cap, until it hit a ~$300 billion in January (and cryptocoins in general hit $800 billion market cap). It is like subprime mortgages or dot-bomb stocks or tulip bulbs or what have you, at some point it becomes significantly large enough for people like Charlie Munger to have to contemplate it and deem Bitcoin "rat poison". Then its $300 billion market cap falls to $80 billion, which is its current market cap. IMHO, Bitcoin's market cap will be near $0 eventually, as it is worthless. So there is still air to deflate that balloon. Unless investors want to pour $220 billion back into Bitcoin to reinflate it.
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