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No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

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Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#211

Post by tfha »

pavlov wrote: post #73
simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

Perhaps the recent SEC action against multiple ICOs is contributing too? Long story short, the American regulator has determined that the 2017 hype-fuelled ICOs were unregistered security sales (just like everyone said they are, but ICO promoters pretended to hand-wave away by mumbling something about utility tokens). They've fined an initial wave of ICOs to the tune of $250k and mandatory refunds to all who bought t…

I wonder if ico issuers are selling off btc and eth in order to have enough cash on hand to do the asset buybacks and still be ahead.

Anyone who ICO'd in early 2017 (including big names like tezos and filecoin) have enough USD value of btc and eth to comply with the SEC and still have 9 figures left. It's a good time to take profit if you did that, get off the hook and still be incredibly cash wealthy.

That would also explain why ripple is still stable, not as many icos hold xrp as btc and eth

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#212

Post by Symbiote »

ladybro wrote: post #116

Miners in China supposedly throwing out their rigs after this latest crash made them too expensive to keep running. https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1064878600594305025

As replies point out, the man is dressed in summer clothes. Many replies say it clean-up from a flood earlier this year.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#213

Post by softawre »

airstrike wrote: post #193
softawre wrote: post #178

Just curious, do you guys throw a bit of your retirement portfolio into BTC just to diversify? I do, I keep maybe 3% of mine in BTC just in case.

Just curious, do you guys throw a bit of your retirement portfolio into roulettes at the casino just to diversify? I do, I gamble away maybe 3% of mine just in case.

BTC is an asset according to G20 and many others. It's obviously highly speculative which is why I picked a low percent. I was just curious if others were doing the same, and was hoping I could ask that without getting this sort of snark. Oh well.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#214

Post by aviv »

jeletonskelly wrote: post #34
simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

Trading volume has dropped significantly over the last 6 months. Large holders have been patient waiting for new money to enter the market. Eventually, when the only activity is a few automated traders and the exchange liquidity provider, large holders are faced with opportunity costs of investing in something else and the limited liquidity the market can absorb as they exit. It's a domino effect as they see each oth…

The Saudis facing confiscation and raids back home dumped their cash into Bitcoin which fueled the rally to $20k. They are now pulling the money out.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#215

Post by endorphone »

simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

"I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop"

A more telling question is how it has held any value at all for as long as it has. There was a period where BTC's rise was rationalized via its promise to become the currency of the future. Does anyone actually believe that now, though? BTC instead has become nothing more than a speculation vehicle built on a foundation of absolutely nothing. No rational analysis sees it being the basis of really anything at all, and that mad rush has seen an outrageously inefficient system put in play. It wouldn't be bad if it were actually the basis of meaningful purpose, but instead GWs and GWs are going to effectively nothing.

I suspect at some point a psychological threshold is going to be hit and BTC is going to plummet through the floor. A lot of very specialized hardware is going to derelict.

As an aside, many of the comments in this discussion, and the moderation of the same, is indicative of how profoundly irrational people can become when they have skin in a game. If I held BTC I'd probably be trying to rationalize why it should be worth something, against all rational analysis.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#216

Post by gaff33 »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #200
simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

"somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop" It has no inherent value, is a poor currency substitute, it is a poor store of value, and is on a long term trajectory to zero. People are realizing this and liquidating large/low basis cost positions.

This may all be true - but it fails to explain why it crashed now (as opposed to 2 months ago, or 2 months hence).

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#217

Post by notyourday »

jeletonskelly wrote: post #157
notyourday wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You meant to say "Legit distributed public ledger projects". Care to name a few?

I think there are several projects trying to solve this, but DLT can make an impact in secondary markets for privately held equity. Ownership is difficult to verify, settlement is complicated, and there are many rules that govern the transfer of privately held shares. Nasdaq Private Market has been using (or at least evaluating) DLT/blockchain since 2014 when it was SecondMarket. Harbor, Polymath, Securitize etc are…

You are describing a ledger. You are not describing a "distributed public ledger".

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#218

Post by wgerard »

throwbacktictac wrote: post #197
wgerard wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, and by no means am I a bitcoin-enthusiast, there's a lot of value to be had by something that allows relatively frictionless international money transfer. I realize that's not necessarily a feature of blockchains, though it is a feature of cryptocurrencies (for now, at least). We had a friend who lives in a commonwealth country working for us as a contractor, and figuring out how to pay them was a pretty…

Tranferwise makes me cringe. I fell for the hype. I failed to do research and fell into the same tarpit that even a cursory glance would have revealed. They withdrew my funds. Promised a transfer date by the following date. Three days pass and the suddenly lock me out of my account and asked for a bunch of documents to complete the transfer.

I can say from the sender side, it was fairly straight-forward and great to use. Sorry to hear about it being a pain from the recipient side.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#219

Post by wpietri »

simias wrote: post #162
Hermel wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even according to the IRS's own estimates, laws like Fatca would never pass a cost/benefit test. The implementation costs of such bureaucratic monstrosities is in the range of hundreds of billions, whereas the benefit is a few orders of magnitude lower. The established banks do not complain much about it because the high fixed cost of compliance disproportionally affects small firms, thereby protecting them from bein…

So I know next to nothing about these regulations but what do you mean by "cost/benefit" exactly? Surely if these rules are meant to fight (directly or indirectly) organized crime then you can't just judge them on the amount of money saved? If you spend $10 millions to prevent $1 million to reach a terrorist organization, can't you consider it money well spent?

Exactly. If we want to do a true benefit calculation, we have to look at alternate futures.

One important future to avert is where organized crime is rampant. Even if we look at only the economic costs, one study in Italy suggests mafia domination cost 16% of per-capita GDP. Given the US's $20 trillion GDP, that's quite a lot. And that's ignoring people's preference for security and safety. As an entrepreneur, for example, I think it's great that I don't have to worry about paying for "protection" to keep from having my business burned down or my legs broken.

We also have to look at terrorism. KYC/AML work to keep cash out of the hands of terrorists. Terrorism is, moral and human cost aside, very expensive. The 9/11 incident alone sees estimates in the $2-3 trillion range for total economic costs.

So even if KYC/AML really does cost hundreds of billions, which I doubt, it's a bargain compared to the problems it's meant to prevent.

[1] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecoj.12235

[2] E.g., see https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-world-after-911-part-... and https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011...

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#220

Post by ceejayoz »

sneak wrote: post #203
ceejayoz wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> VOO has dropped 1.5% today, which is pretty bad for an index stock. Uh, what? An index stock mirrors, as closely as possible, the market it's indexing. If the market goes down 1.5% - which is extremely common - so will VOO.

I think GP meant it is pretty bad in the market if the composite index average (and thus index ETF) is down 1.5% in a single day.

Which is a silly claim. The markets being down (or up) 1.5% is an unremarkable trading day.

https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs...

Per this chart, almost 20% of Dow trading days fall in the 1-2% change range.

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