White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods • Hacker News Board

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#371

Post by leereeves » Sat, Jun 16, 2018, 3:17 PM UTC

rsynnott wrote: post #27

> It includes a broad range of components used in electronics manufacturing, specifically naming touchscreens, batteries, and electric motors. General components like transistors are also named on the list as well as more specific components used in televisions, cameras, and radio receivers. [..] Notably, the list does not include cellphones or completed televisions. So, this will, er, serve to discourage companies f…

Is it too late to restore America's capacity to manufacture fundamental goods like steel and electronics components?

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#372

Post by nailer » Sat, Jun 16, 2018, 3:25 PM UTC

projectileboy wrote: post #100

rsynnott wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, more likely the companies making them will just move production elsewhere or go out of business. Components are big part of the cost of your average consumer device, and margins mostly aren't high.

It depends a lot on exactly what kind of production facilities we’re talking about moving. Simple plastic injection mold shops? Sure, maybe. Multi-billion dollar chip fab plants? Not so much.

Taiwan fabricates chips. PRC doesn't.

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#373

Post by robotbikes » Sat, Jun 16, 2018, 4:33 PM UTC

ravitation wrote: post #314

robotbikes wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is this supposed to go on ad infinitum ? What if at some point the new jobs created are worse than the jobs that were lost ? Does everyone in the US need to have a so-called service job or else be an information worker ? And to what end l so that cheaper items can result in more conspicuous consumption to fuel the accumulation of wealth by those who are lucky enough to own stock and the companies that are profiti…

> But is this supposed to go on ad infinitum? Yes... That's how technological progress works? Countless millions of jobs were lost during the Industrial Revolution, but in there place were new jobs often requiring new (and more) skills. The pace of that turnover has been increasing since the invention of the wheel, one problem now is that we've crossed a threshold where the rate of change is no longer intergeneration…

I would argue that the notion of infinite growth through technological progress is a fallacy based upon an incomplete set of data and a projection of a limited time sphere into the future. When the industrial "revolution" started the world was a much less exploited place. Now I'm not going to argue that iteration and improvement are bad or that innovation, research and pondering fundamental questions through rigorous scientific analysis are bad but I also don't think that we need a consumer driven society to fuel these things. I suspect that we fell into a certain social pattern as a species (let's call it capitalism) and that many of the ideas we now take as given, that w/o economic growth there is "stagnation" are simply one interpretation of the data through a heavily confirmation biased lens.

Many human and non-human lives have been sacrificed at the altar of the "cult of progress" and I don't think we should be so willing to think because something has happened for the last 100-200 years (rapid technological change and exponential exploitation of natural resources) that it can go on forever.

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#374

Post by systoll » Sat, Jun 16, 2018, 4:57 PM UTC

wintom wrote: post #282

luma wrote: post #28

I guess my earlier comment was too long, so let me provide a shorter version: this action actively harms anyone attempting to design, prototype, and manufacture electronic devices in the US. There isn't a single component in the projects I'm currently working on which isn't impacted by this. My cost of goods just went up by 25% across the board today in an effort to help "protect" American businesses. I don't feel li…

[flagged]

The problem you describe is reasonable. But this tariff is worse than doing absolutely nothing about it.

Companies have three options:

1. Do nothing in the US except [perhaps] selling the finished product, and use whatever components you want.

2. Use chinese components in US manufacturing.

3. Assemble in the US using no Chinese components.

Given the scenario you've described, presumably #3 > #2 > #1. And right now, almost everything is taking route #1.

So what does this tariff do for companies currently taking route #1? The tariff doesn't affect finished products, so there's no direct impact on them.

If they want to move something to the US, they'll find themselves in #2, the group that's hit with the tariff. Is it a good thing to discourage that?

It also discourages products that are currently america-only from adding chinese components. That might have prevented today's situation if it were enacted in 1980, but it's pretty much irrelevant today.

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#375

Post by noir_lord » Sat, Jun 16, 2018, 4:57 PM UTC

Perceval wrote: post #300

everybodyknows wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another reading is that the thought going in to the tariffs was not directed toward helping Americans, but rather creating headlines big enough to crowd out reporting on the various scandals of the administration. Ever seen "Wag The Dog?"

Trump has been talking about the need for tariffs and industrial policy since the 1980s. This is not some scheme he's cooked up on the spur of the moment.

When it comes to Trump (as a non-American) the old saying "Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity" breaks down.

With him and the people he surrounds himself with, inept would be an improvement.

He managed to piss off the Canadians ffs, Thats the diplomatic equivalent to punching a friendly puppy.

Also is anyone during or after Trump ever going to trust anything with a US signature on again... I can't see it.

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#376

Post by cfadvan » Sat, Jun 16, 2018, 4:58 PM UTC

noir_lord wrote: post #375

Perceval wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump has been talking about the need for tariffs and industrial policy since the 1980s. This is not some scheme he's cooked up on the spur of the moment.

When it comes to Trump (as a non-American) the old saying "Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity" breaks down. With him and the people he surrounds himself with, inept would be an improvement. He managed to piss off the Canadians ffs, Thats the diplomatic equivalent to punching a friendly puppy. Also is anyone during or after Trump ever going to trust anything with a US signature on again... I…

There’s an extension to Hanlon’s Razor that too many forget:

“Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity, but don’t dismiss malice.”

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#377

Post by EpicEng » Sat, Jun 16, 2018, 5:54 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #117

EpicEng wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why you're being downvoted; China absolutely does all of those things. They are not playing fair in the global market and never have. One can debate whether or not the tariff is the right approach, but let's not pretend that China is a victim.

Whereas the US has always played fair in the global market and never used its dollar position, tarriffs, sanction, invasions etc for market advantage?

China imposes massive tarrifs on the US, subsizes the majority of its economy, and is one of the most protectionist economies in the world. No one ever said the US is perfect in all things, so I'm not sure who you're arguing with, but if you want to compare specifics on China v the US you're going to lose.

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#378

Post by ravitation » Sat, Jun 16, 2018, 8:47 PM UTC

robotbikes wrote: post #373

ravitation wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is this supposed to go on ad infinitum? Yes... That's how technological progress works? Countless millions of jobs were lost during the Industrial Revolution, but in there place were new jobs often requiring new (and more) skills. The pace of that turnover has been increasing since the invention of the wheel, one problem now is that we've crossed a threshold where the rate of change is no longer intergeneration…

I would argue that the notion of infinite growth through technological progress is a fallacy based upon an incomplete set of data and a projection of a limited time sphere into the future. When the industrial "revolution" started the world was a much less exploited place. Now I'm not going to argue that iteration and improvement are bad or that innovation, research and pondering fundamental questions through rigorous…

Look, my point was not that we "need a consumer driven society" though I think history has shown it to be extremely effective. My point was that, regardless of the economic system, with technological progress comes fundamental changes to the state of the economy. New jobs are created and inefficient/unneeded jobs are destroyed, that's true actually by definition. "Bringing back jobs" runs completely counter to those changes in the economy and therefore technological progress.

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#379

Post by aoeusnth1 » Sat, Jun 16, 2018, 11:32 PM UTC

Buetol wrote: post #363

schmichael wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wikipedia is always a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protectionism#Impact Edit: It's also worth mentioning that it is unlikely these tariffs are meant to last in the medium-to-long term. This is a trade war so knowing what's a long term strategy vs a short term tactical maneuver is intentionally obfuscated in order to maximize leverage against the opponent. Each side is just trying to rack up barg…

This wikipedia article is a lot more biased than the french version. Here, it’s clearly anti-protectionism by defending the age-old myth of "comparative advantage".

Wait, I didn't realize the basic principal of comparative advantage was in doubt. I'm a bit confused by your worldview - do you think that every person should produce exactly what only they need and never trade with others? What is the purpose of trade between individuals or groups?

Re: White House announces 25 percent tariff on Chinese tech goods

#380

Post by mistermann » Sun, Jun 17, 2018, 3:00 AM UTC

mistermann wrote: post #318

curiousgal wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>that's probably only true in the short or medium term Exactly, except there is no long term because the following administration will undo all of what the current one has done.

Citation?

Downvotes for asking someone for evidence of a guarantee of what someone is going to do in the future? I long for the days before HN became an ideological battleground.