361–370 of 426 posts
I'll believe it when I see it. Anthropic or OpenAI IPOing is literally signing their own death certificate. The valuation will go to zero as soon as they have to submit actual numbers instead of the salad of bullshit they usually serve investors.
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IMO they cannot let OpenAI fail. It's not only an AI company, it's the symbol of AI hype. This AI hype is significant part of the US economy, and the AI infrastructure spending basically half of its growth. ("it's not this it's that", I swear it's human generated slop)
The bubble either pops or it gets bigger. We've survived worse, better it pops now.
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Meanwhile Chinese AI companies outputting open weight models nearly as good are valued in the low single digit billions. Go figure.
They are dirty communists. We prefer red blooded American scam artists here, buddy. Hell, Elon probably found some bullshit way to recognize Chinese AI as Twitter revenue, used to buy cyberattacks to sell to SpaceX.
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ETFs are a trap. Put most of your money in single stocks. It is ok to diversify, you don't need an ETF for this.
This is terrible advice, are you buying and self balancing hundreds of different stocks?
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Personally, I don't worry about profitability in the short term. If Anthropic is adding $15b ARR every single month, and their gross margins are 50%+ (per Dario), profits are inevitable. The thing I'm most worried about with SpaceX is bundling X.com, xAI with it. I don't want to invest in X.com nor xAI. Lastly, I don't my money tied to the Elon rollercoaster.
How are the margins 50%+? There's an article from today where if they double their current revenue to $10.9B they will make ~$500M profit. Maybe I just can't count, but that's a margin of ~5% no? These numbers should be inference only: https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart...
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Prices do go down for electronics: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/price-changes-consumer-go...
That was then and this is now. RAM and storage prices are through the roof, effectively erasing the price drops of the latest 15 years or so.
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> So I take it you're going to buy shares of OpenAI on opening day then? ;) Probably not. Do you understand however that your comment does not make sense in the context of my comment? > Institutions merely owning a newly-IPO'd stock means nothing. They get access to shares at a reasonable price before opening while retail is buying at insane prices after open. See Figma as an example where institutional investors got…
Insiders get the best price before retail. What is there not to understand?
Earlier stage investors take risk and are rewarded for that. Most companies go bankrupt and folks lose their principal. For the companies that are successful yea some go bust after IPO - so what? Are you against public markets or something? That would at least be an interesting discussion.
Google IPO'd in 2004 and returned from what I'm reading about 6,500% after IPO (and this was in 2024, so the gains have gone up much higher since then) and all of that was the bags dumped on retail. If someone wants to dump their 6,500% return on me I'll take them up on that all day every day and twice on Sunday.
Being cynical is a recipe for poverty.
If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"
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How are the margins 50%+? There's an article from today where if they double their current revenue to $10.9B they will make ~$500M profit. Maybe I just can't count, but that's a margin of ~5% no? These numbers should be inference only: https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart...
gross margin doesnt include opex, capex, overhead etc