Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#361

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:25 AM UTC

AmericanChopper wrote: post #301

mulmen wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we live on Earth. Saudi Arabia is a strategic ally in the Middle East. We need to have a plan for the future when the geopolitical landscape shifts and incentives change. Nobody exists in a vacuum, our interests are intertwined with everyone else's.

Well I’m sure that the people of Saudi Arabia don’t care that you want to plan their future for them, because as I mentioned, it’s something they’ve already taken care of for themselves. It’s really a rather imperialistic perspective tbh. To presume all of these countries need us to be making decisions for them, or that we would have any right to do so in the first place.

[deleted]

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#362

Post by sangnoir » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:26 AM UTC

spiritplumber wrote: post #262

sangnoir wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What do they do? Realistically - they'll get deported to their home countries. There's no government on earth that will tolerate a non-citizen, non-refugee as a public charge with no prospect of being productive in the future. Foreigners are politically convenient scape-goats for all that is wrong with {ECONOMY|JOBS|CRIME|SERVICE DELIVERY}, and politicians will politic.

The "they" in "what do they do" refers to unproductive Saudi citizens, not productive Saudi immigrants.

Oh, I misunderstood the question. I think if the government can afford to pay about $58,000 p.a. to each citizen based on sovereign fund interest alone, we'll get to witness the biggest UBI experiment the world has ever seen.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#363

Post by dcolkitt » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:31 AM UTC

arjun-menon wrote: post #235

discordance wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" - Saeed Al Maktoum

The quote is actually likely from a member of Dubai Royal Family. An interesting fact here is that the UAE will never become poor . The UAE has saved up over 1.3 million USD dollars per citizen [a]. And this is just the government’s savings. Obviously, there’s immense private wealth on top of that as well. Even if with investment returns as low as 4% per year drawn out, that would translate to $52,000 per citizen . T…

I mostly agree with this post, but have to point out that the UAE is not a unitary polity. It's a loose confederacy of seven related Sheikdoms, with a wide range of policy and level of development.

Almost all of that wealth is concentrated in the sovereign wealth fund of the emirate of Abu Dhabi, because Abu Dhabi has by far the largest oil reserves. Next is Dubai, which has much less accumulated in its sovereign wealth fund, because it's nearly run out of oil. However it's done a lot to diversity its economy into finance, services, and tourism.

But as for the other five emirates, the picture is much more bleak. Nor is it like the US, where finances or taxation are co-mingled on the federal level to any serious degree. If California generates a lot of wealth relative to Alabama, you'd expect a lot to be redistributed. But Abu Dhabi will not be sending any of its enormous wealth holdings to Sharjah by any means.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#364

Post by Qwertious » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:32 AM UTC

m463 wrote: post #252

mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

Some states have this. I remember a friend in new york had a timer on his electric water heater to heat it at night when power was cheap. But you are right - market forces are extremely powerful in their ability to optimize things.

>Some states have this. I remember a friend in new york had a timer on his electric water heater to heat it at night when power was cheap.

This has been a thing in Australia too, under the decades-old assumption that midnight coal is the cheapest period of power. There have been projects to change the boiler systems to 1) heat at midday instead of midnight, to reflect the changed cost-curve caused by solar, and 2) randomise the exact period of heating, to spread the demand over a range rather than causing a huge spike at 12:00 exactly.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#365

Post by mulmen » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:33 AM UTC

chiefalchemist wrote: post #215

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Well, not just countries but whole industries/sectors are going to collapse. It's not like we're going to retrain an oil driller to be software engineer. Yes, the ecological benefits shine. But we need to prepare for the sociopolitical and socioeconomic fallout. Given how prepared we've (not) been for addressing climate change, it's difficult to imagine we'll be prepared for the unintended consequences of renewables.…

It is a mistake to think that modern corporate software development is much different than building pickup trucks. This is a software manufacturing industry. The skills are trainable.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#366

Post by wp381640 » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:34 AM UTC

nl wrote: post #297

wp381640 wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Battery was and is never supposed to take up the entire storage load of a network - nobody is designing or forecasting future networks in that way. Batteries provide fast response Pumped hydro is what is being used on a lot of networks and in future network planning. Ironically old open cut mines are often perfect locations for them. This paper discusses an algorithm used to find pumped hydro sites - there is _a lot_…

To add to this, there are numerous very large scale project already underway to use existing hydro capacity as pumped hydro storage. Eg, Bath County Pump Storage is a 3GW plant[1] although ironically it is often filled using nuclear power because the hydro station can adapt better to rapid changes in demand. In the US there is 22GW total pump hydro storage already (compared to say 98GW total nuclear power capacity).…

add Snowy 2.0 in Australia - 2GW:

https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#367

Post by wp381640 » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:35 AM UTC

rtx wrote: post #329

wp381640 wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest power stations at the moment are always going to be stored hydro - they take up a lot of land. Those large coal burners also take up a lot of land when you consider the mines, transport infra, tailings dams, coal piles not to mention the clean air they "take up"

Thats why we should be exclusively nuclear.

Easy to have that opinion but the market is building wind/solar + battery + pumped hydro

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#368

Post by Qwertious » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:35 AM UTC

cbmuser wrote: post #136

gandalfian wrote: post #61

The Germans paid for it creating the market/industry. Vast amounts. Then the Chinese thought it looked like a good industry to be in and threw unbelievable money at developing manufacturing capacity. If the Germans keep voting green and being parsimonious savers then we may yet get cheap batteries and survive.

That’s rather inaccurate. German electricity prices are so high because renewables need backup power plants and German law mandates that these plants (mostly coal and gas) are not allowed to operate unless wind and solar are unable to provide sufficient electricity. Also, Germany‘s energy sector still accounts to 350 million tons CO2 emissions annually while France only accounts for 50 million tons CO2 p.a. That’s th…

You can't directly compare Germany to France, as Germany largely privatised their grid whereas France's grid is largely government-run and -subsidised.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#369

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:39 AM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

[deleted]

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#370

Post by wukerplank » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 5:41 AM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Regarding Saudi Arabia: They should sit on a huge pile of money and the end of fossil fuels is not a big bang event. I would have expected them to use that money for R&D to shape the post oil world to stay relevant.