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A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

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Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#351

Post by rsynnott »

sph wrote: post #186
satvikpendem wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I meant current governments not culture itself.

It is sad to admit it to our Western selves, but authoritarians plan across decades, democracies across electoral terms at best. No king wants to rule over a failed state.

> but authoritarians plan across decades, democracies across electoral terms at best.

Eh. China is really the exception there, not the norm, and it's a particularly _weird_ authoritarian state. Your average authoritarian regime is pretty short-termist, and indeed they tend to self-destruct fairly quickly.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#352

Post by graemep »

rsynnott wrote: post #349
graemep wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ozone hole problem has been essentially solved, acid rain has been essentially solved, mass scale water pollution like rivers catching on fire All far less expensive to fix. Never actually heard of rivers catching fire? Has acid rain been solved globally? The ozone hole problem we got lucky on. It required global action but a lot of things lined up. Things like the British prime minster at the time being a form…

> Never actually heard of rivers catching fire? This is the most famous example, though there have been a few of them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuyahoga_River > Has acid rain been solved globally? Not entirely, but largely.

On the rivers catching fire. Wow!

I think I may have heard of it as a freak event (e.g. an oil spill) but the same the same river catching fire 14 times is not something i realised happened.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#353

Post by killerstorm »

don_esteban wrote: post #328
killerstorm wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, EU is convinced it's a real problem, but the only solution they are considering is to reduce emissions largely via degrowth. OTOH to actually solve the problem we'd need geoengineering and cheap energy e.g. from fission. Just spamming more solar does not help during winter, and EU solution seems to be "maybe you should just die".

Spamming solar in Sahara + DC cables to Europe still feels more realistic than fission. Not destabilising Libya would have helped ... whole another can of worms. Geoengineering (depending on how it is done) is prime hubris. Are we sure we won't screw things even worse?

What's unrealistic about fission? France can do it. If best minds in Europe join forces they can figure how to do it even cheaper/safer/faster.

The missing part is political will. If anybody with unreasonable objection will be labeled enemy of the people it can be solved.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#354

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

smartbit wrote: post #320
zerobees wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not as negative about this, but with the benefit of hindsight, it's easy why the current initiatives didn't go anywhere. It's not that people are not willing to make sacrifices. We repeatedly did this in times of famine or war. Europe during WWII is a perfect example. Another good example of a major cultural shift in response to a new threat was the AIDS epidemic. The entire sexual revolution went out the window…

> The entire sexual revolution went out the window and we're now in a world where young people have a lot less sex than ever before. Source? Not withstanding that people are not willing to make sacrifices, my impression is that the last decades young women gained the freedom of enjoying sex as much as they like not restricted by religious or other norms. Sleeping with several different partners a week is not frowned…

> safe sex with contraception imho is among the most environmental friendly activities as long as one travels by foot or bike.

This is leaving no space for privacy behind "Steamy Windows" within "Nutbush City Limits".

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#355

Post by awongh »

elektronika wrote: post #333
awongh wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since covid I’ve actually become less convinced of this. Yes there were national interests at play and there was a lot of general chaos. But. The level of international coordination with vaccine rollouts and agreements between countries was way more than I had initially expected. Of course this feeling depends on what your own baseline expectations are. My takeaway was that if the conditions arise that we all decide…

> The level of international coordination with vaccine rollouts and agreements between countries was way more than I had initially expected Did we forget the DoD running anti-vax propaganda campaigns because the USA's vaccines weren't ready as quickly as Sinovac's: https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-covi...

Both things can be true. If you're truly pessimistic this is the only thing you would expect, and not the other stuff that happened- a globally coordinated vaccine rollout to every country on earth.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#356

Post by tremon »

Lonestar1440 wrote: post #138
Kon5ole wrote: post #87

I don't know if it's too late to stop the worst case scenarios of global warming yet or if there's still time, but it doesn't seem to be happening anyway. The world can't deal with something that requires global concentrated efforts. However, I do think we have time to prepare for the worst case scenarios, and individual countries and states can do that efficiently on their own. Improve evacuation routines in floodab…

We've already stopped the "Worst case scenarios" by rapidly replacing Carbon-intensive energy with other sources over the past decade: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/climate/emissions-worst-c... Still work to be done, and also plenty of reasons for optimism. Batteries, motors, and carbon free generation only get better.

That "worst case scenario" (RCP85) was projecting a 5°C increase by 2100; the current trajectory still puts us at a 3.5°C increase by 2100, whoop-dee-doo. The "avoid climate change scenario" (< 1.5°C by 2100) is also rapidly becoming unattainable.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#357

Post by Kon5ole »

superfrank wrote: post #246
Kon5ole wrote: post #87

I don't know if it's too late to stop the worst case scenarios of global warming yet or if there's still time, but it doesn't seem to be happening anyway. The world can't deal with something that requires global concentrated efforts. However, I do think we have time to prepare for the worst case scenarios, and individual countries and states can do that efficiently on their own. Improve evacuation routines in floodab…

> The world can't deal with something that requires global concentrated efforts Historically, that's not correct. The Montreal Protocol to reduce CFCs in response to the hole in the ozone layer is a perfect example of us doing this. I realize the world has changed and maybe it's not possible in our current political climate, but we have worked together as a planet to solve these type of global problems before.

>The Montreal Protocol to reduce CFCs in response to the hole in the ozone layer is a perfect example of us doing this.

I can't agree with this, the efforts are several orders of magnitude different. Sure humans worldwide can cooperate on small things and do so regularly. The olympic games spring to mind. Or the ISS.

The Montreal protocol was great, don't get me wrong, but it basically boils down to "Hey you couple of hundred thousand people in a small part of industry, please use chemical Y instead of chemical X. Otherwise carry on."

The effort required to stop global warming is entirely different. It will affect billions of people, entire industries will be terminated permanently, millions will be unemployed, rich countries will suddenly be poor, global trade will grind to a halt.

And we can't even be sure that effort will actually work.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#358

Post by Kon5ole »

jitbit wrote: post #318
Kon5ole wrote: post #87

I don't know if it's too late to stop the worst case scenarios of global warming yet or if there's still time, but it doesn't seem to be happening anyway. The world can't deal with something that requires global concentrated efforts. However, I do think we have time to prepare for the worst case scenarios, and individual countries and states can do that efficiently on their own. Improve evacuation routines in floodab…

> world can't deal with something that requires global concentrated efforts Saddest part is that it used to The Ozone layer problem was exactly this: coordinated global concentrated effort. I doubt we can do that again though.

>The Ozone layer problem was exactly this: coordinated global concentrated effort.

It was so much smaller though, and nobody really had to pay for it - not with money, not with suffering. The kind of sacrifices made for the Montreal protocol can be done a thousand times without moving the needle on global warming.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#359

Post by bobson381 »

intended wrote: post #226
skeledrew wrote: post #26

Meh who cares? Let it all burn and flood. Earth gets a fresh start, and hopefully whatever "intelligent" species evolves to be dominant in the next 5-10 million years is a better custodian. Rinse and repeat until that's the case. Heck, who knows if this is actually the 1st or 100th iteration...

From what I recall, there will be no easy energy once our civ dies out. Whichever civilization rises after us, it will face a limit to what heights it can reach.

We are also limited - the backstock that's made our extraordinary 200-year party possible is the reserve of oil. Future civilizations will start lower on the energy gradient.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#360

Post by camgunz »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #312
DangitBobby wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is why it's a coordination problem that requires a motivated leader like the government instead of throwing our hands up and saying "gee it sure sucks that everyone has revealed they like will buy the products on the shelves".

First we have to convince people that they will be better off if they have to pay a lot more for their toy trucks. That is the step 0 that nobody seems to know how to solve. Hollering about how the oil company CEOs are evil is not going to be the thing. It's already been tried. People will nod right along until you get to, "and that's why your gasoline needs to cost $7/gallon."

Trucks are 3.4% of US GHG (~60m trucks at 3.51 megatons CO2/yr is ~211 megatons CO2/yr out of 6,266 megatons from the US total). If we never started another pickup truck ever again we're still 96.6% away from zero emissions. It's also worth saying those people would probably still drive something and the odds of that car being zero emissions is very low, so this is pretty charitable. Anyway, this kind of finger wagging--bordering on contempt--is exactly why this has become a political issue. These are collective action problems. We're not going to solve them by asking/forcing people to take tremendous individual losses, no matter how repugnant you think their way of life is.
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