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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#351

Post by stockresearcher »

largbae wrote: post #277
stockresearcher wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strongly recommend reading this linked paper, written by CRSP folks: https://indexes.morningstar.com/insights/analysis/bltcd8e699... These IPOs will have minuscule impact on the indexes initially. They will have a big impact if they can maintain share price in the first ranking/reconstitution after the lockup period expires.

Won't the lockup expiry increase the float on these already-included companies, forcing mechanical buying by all the very large pool pool of folks holding these index funds? Thus creating forced buyers to maintain said share price?

Every single index fund is different. They all have publicly available methodology guides; you can read them to understand how it works and to model various scenarios.

This particular one, the CRSP total market - which Vanguard uses for VTI - has a “modern” methodology that is thought to be very good. Once every three months they re-rank the entire market and assign weights based on the market as of a particular point in time. Then, a randomly-chosen number of days later, the fund (Vanguard) begins a weeklong reconstitution process in which they buy and sell stocks to reflect the new weights. It is intentionally a weeklong process so that the market is setting prices and not Vanguard with the size of their orders.

The lockup expiry happens, the market reacts, the market is re-weighted, the index reconstitutes. In that order. The price of the stock has to survive the increased float to force the index fund to buy lots more shares.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#353

Post by lesuorac »

xracy wrote: post #348

Curious how someone with a 401k, who didn't want their retirement to be used by these companies to buy at an inflated price, would go about opting out of this. Typically I just have my 401k in an index fund so that things have to become established before they're added. This seems like it's circumventing that, and I would be inclined to vote with my wallet. But everything around 401k index funds that I see are very o…

You have to lookup what your index fund is. They all have always had different inclusion rules and they may or might not have changed theirs recent to try to include SpaceX.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#354

Post by 0xbadcafebee »

panarky wrote: post #224
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

> focus on revenue growth rates and inference margins

And ignore debt you can't pay back? Fine during ZIRP era because there was always another $50M around the corner. There is no extra $50B around the corner.

They've all over-invested in AI, same as the railroads, and it will collapse the same way.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#355

Post by torben-friis »

aspenmartin wrote: post #332
torben-friis wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it's kind of inevitable and I haven't really heard a coherent steel man argument for why "killing whole industries" is somehow a far-fetched idea. They don't only require "good enough to kill industries" (which is doubtful but certainly feasible), that's just step one. I think about it in terms of potential failure modes: - if models don't reach worker-substitution levels, they fail - if models reach that level, but…

If 1B people consume via personally or their employer on average $100/mo of tokens or services that solves the problem right there and that is not inconceivable whatsoever and feels like an underestimate. Repayment doesn’t imply you have to build an end to end replacement of an industry. This also negates this whole like “you have to completely replace a human” fallacy. Why do you need to replace a human? Why not jus…

>If 1B people consume via personally or their employer on average $100/mo of tokens or services that solves the problem right there

0.15B is the full actively employed population of the US. 0.2 extra for the full EU, and we're barely making a third of the needed numbers, and this is assuming that the guy cleaning the street or the plumber will have a 100 bucks subscription just because - not to mention that a hundred bucks is 10-20% of median monthly income in many countries, even some EU ones.

You're asking for 3x Netflix subscribers at 4-10x Netflix price and with the whole world standardized at American prices (without American income).

Then add that this would very likely be a commodity market with competitors, so the billion, if existing, would be a market rather than a specific company's income.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#356

Post by xracy »

lesuorac wrote: post #353
xracy wrote: post #348

Curious how someone with a 401k, who didn't want their retirement to be used by these companies to buy at an inflated price, would go about opting out of this. Typically I just have my 401k in an index fund so that things have to become established before they're added. This seems like it's circumventing that, and I would be inclined to vote with my wallet. But everything around 401k index funds that I see are very o…

You have to lookup what your index fund is. They all have always had different inclusion rules and they may or might not have changed theirs recent to try to include SpaceX.

I think I'm looking at general "retirement funds" which are a little more opaque. e.g. Vanguard/TD retirement funds, when I looked into them, didn't have any information on "what is in them." Just general breakdowns.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#357

Post by ai_fry_ur_brain »

derwiki wrote: post #345
ai_fry_ur_brain wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to everyones 50 year old mother who doesnt even know how to login to their account, let alone modify their allocations.

50 isn’t old? I would expect a 50 year old mother to be competent.

[flagged]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#358

Post by 0xbadcafebee »

xracy wrote: post #348

Curious how someone with a 401k, who didn't want their retirement to be used by these companies to buy at an inflated price, would go about opting out of this. Typically I just have my 401k in an index fund so that things have to become established before they're added. This seems like it's circumventing that, and I would be inclined to vote with my wallet. But everything around 401k index funds that I see are very o…

You can pick funds that have little exposure to tech, which probably isn't what you're asking, but is a safer bet than being too much in tech:

  - S&P 500 Ex-Technology ETF (Ticker: SPXT)
  - S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (Ticker: RSP)
  - Vanguard Value Index (Ticker: VTV)
  - Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (Ticker: VTI)
  - Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (Ticker: VYM)
  - Schwab US Dividend Equity (Ticker: SCHD)
  - Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF (Ticker: RWJ)
Target Date Retirement Funds are also a safe(ish) bet, as they are broadly diversified and continuously rebalanced toward retirement

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#359

Post by [deleted] »

pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

[deleted]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#360

Post by htrp »

xracy wrote: post #348

Curious how someone with a 401k, who didn't want their retirement to be used by these companies to buy at an inflated price, would go about opting out of this. Typically I just have my 401k in an index fund so that things have to become established before they're added. This seems like it's circumventing that, and I would be inclined to vote with my wallet. But everything around 401k index funds that I see are very o…

you would have to look for an SMA or a special index fund that explicitly excludes these items
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