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Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#351

Post by bdangubic »

filoleg wrote: post #350
bdangubic wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

THIS is a way to get rich. To get wealthy, you cannot be diversified. No wealthy person is diversified.

> To get wealthy, you cannot get diversified Sure, but not diversifying is also one of the most efficient ways to go broke. Which is something that diversifying will make much more difficult. Also, full baloney. I was not diversifying for many years and it indeed made me great money (thanks MSFT). But when I started getting spooked and diversified, guess what? I still ended up doing pretty well, even if it wasn’t on…

I am not saying anything that you are attempting to dispute here... Your logic is sound and you can get rich doing it. But you won't get wealthy. And getting wealthy does carry higher level of risk, I would think that is common sense.

To me diversification goes against all logic because the rule #1 of investing should be that you as a investor KNOW what you are investing in. You can't tell me anyone investing in say S&P 500 has done extensive research on each every of the 500 companies. All they are hoping for is "hey, these are 500 biggest companies in the World, imma just put my chips here and hope for the best - history tells me that is probably safe bet."

On the other hand, you can do full-on research into a single or handful of companies and then put your chips there. You can't tell me that putting money in Magnificent-7 say 5 years ago was any riskier than putting money into S&P 500... and yet you could have gotten REALLY wealthy with the former and quite rich with the latter...

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#352

Post by bdangubic »

itchyouch wrote: post #346
bdangubic wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

THIS is a way to get rich. To get wealthy, you cannot be diversified. No wealthy person is diversified.

Wealthy folks aren't diversified, because they have _control_ (and knowledge) over their particular investment (ie company founders). Stock investors do not have the luxury of control, thus they must diversify. And generally that's what the wealthy do. They go all-in on their own company, grow it to incredible returns, then use those returns to be invested in a diversified manner to grow further. Other stocks, reales…

> Or if you're Warren Buffet, you invested in a diversified manner, because he didn't control the companies he owned.

you should check out Buffet's portfolio - he's not very diversified at all... If that was your portfolio someone would tell you you are nuts/gambler/...

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#353

Post by bdangubic »

UncleMeat wrote: post #339
bdangubic wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

THIS is a way to get rich. To get wealthy, you cannot be diversified. No wealthy person is diversified.

It is also a great way to get poor. Every lottery winner bought a lottery ticket, after all.

Yup, you can definitely get poor too or hopefully just not as rich and you'd have to work as Walmart doorman in your retirement. Go big or go home :)

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#354

Post by [deleted] »

wslh wrote: post #113

I remember a recent HN thread where it was discussed if Nvidia has really an unique edge in AI because there are other approaches (NPUs, TPUs) to generating, and inferring models beyond the power on these GPUs. I think for the general public it sounds like what Nvidia has is unique (like in gaming) where in AI other approaches arised and are arising.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#355

Post by talldayo »

wslh wrote: post #113

I remember a recent HN thread where it was discussed if Nvidia has really an unique edge in AI because there are other approaches (NPUs, TPUs) to generating, and inferring models beyond the power on these GPUs. I think for the general public it sounds like what Nvidia has is unique (like in gaming) where in AI other approaches arised and are arising.

> I think for the general public it sounds like what Nvidia has is unique (like in gaming)

Gaming is where Nvidia is least unique; they run standards-compliant software by supporting well-documented APIs in-hardware (eg. DX12/Vulkan). AMD does the same thing, and even Intel is able to scale up a simple dGPU setup.

The hard part is software. Nvidia "won" because they spent 10 years developing CUDA when everyone else was smothering their OpenCL implementations in the crib. Now it doesn't matter what Nvidia ships, as long as it's fast and supports CUDA. The Blackwell/Grace systems seem like a good example of this.

TPUs have a slim shot at disrupting things; NPUs are pretty much dead-on-arrival. TPUs are hopeful because they genuinely represent a yak-shaving project that can ignore CUDA semantics to simply infer or train faster. It will be hard to make TPUs as efficient as TSMC-manufactured Nvidia chips, but there's room for disruption given how expensive a single GH200 is.

NPUs... I hate to be a pessimist, but they don't have a very bright feature. In the best of scenarios, an NPU is redundant silicon idling or in-usage to alleviate pressure from the more-powerful main GPU and CPU. Seems great on paper; until you start scaling to LLM/Stable Diffusion size. Now you're bottlenecked by such a low-power component, and have to switch to the GPU which was more powerful all-along. In the worst of cases, the NPU is an expensive waste of space on your SOC. Unlike TPU pods, I think there is no hope for NPUs to compete directly with CUDA. If anything it increases the demand for high-performance training compute, which Nvidia monopolizes.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#356

Post by mike_hearn »

latchkey wrote: post #348
mike_hearn wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've been hearing that line for years, but HN comments are a valuable source of info on where NVDA might go in future. You're the only poster here I could name who is strongly pro-AMD in the AI space. Everyone else seems to put their toes in the water in the hope of being able to get an edge by avoiding NVIDIA's monopoly prices, immediately gets burned by trash software quality and runs away screaming "never again".…

Mike, thanks for the long thoughtful response. I would never try to defend AMD with regards to them needing to catch up. Even talking with executives at AMD, neither would they. Nobody is trying to pull a fast one on this. What has changed for certain, is their attitude and attention. I just got back from Dell Tech World. Dell was caught off-guard with this AI thing too. It is obvious the only thing that anyone is ta…

It's great that you're pushing AMD forward, no doubt about it! And I'm sure they'll make good progress now. Like I said, the ROCrand repository seems to be in much better shape now.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#357

Post by latchkey »

mike_hearn wrote: post #356
latchkey wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mike, thanks for the long thoughtful response. I would never try to defend AMD with regards to them needing to catch up. Even talking with executives at AMD, neither would they. Nobody is trying to pull a fast one on this. What has changed for certain, is their attitude and attention. I just got back from Dell Tech World. Dell was caught off-guard with this AI thing too. It is obvious the only thing that anyone is ta…

It's great that you're pushing AMD forward, no doubt about it! And I'm sure they'll make good progress now. Like I said, the ROCrand repository seems to be in much better shape now.

What is telling for me is that ROCm itself is on regular cadence updates. Not just small updates, but actual meaningful fixes and improvements.

Not only that, but it is all being done in the open, unlike their competition. Hotz demanded some documentation, they provided it and he still complained. Some people just can't find happiness.

Now, whether or not I am pushing them forward is yet to be seen, but at least I'm trying. By positioning myself as a new startup who's trying to help... that will easily garner all their support as well. As I said in another comment, why not let them try too?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#358

Post by filoleg »

bdangubic wrote: post #351
filoleg wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To get wealthy, you cannot get diversified Sure, but not diversifying is also one of the most efficient ways to go broke. Which is something that diversifying will make much more difficult. Also, full baloney. I was not diversifying for many years and it indeed made me great money (thanks MSFT). But when I started getting spooked and diversified, guess what? I still ended up doing pretty well, even if it wasn’t on…

I am not saying anything that you are attempting to dispute here... Your logic is sound and you can get rich doing it. But you won't get wealthy. And getting wealthy does carry higher level of risk, I would think that is common sense. To me diversification goes against all logic because the rule #1 of investing should be that you as a investor KNOW what you are investing in. You can't tell me anyone investing in say…

> To me diversification goes against all logic because the rule #1 of investing should be that you as a investor KNOW what you are investing in.

I largely agree with what you say. However, diversification has degrees, and it doesn’t necessarily mean that you gotta spray and pray across the whole range of S&P500 to be more diversified than the “all-in on a single stock ticker” strategy. Examples:

* All in one single stock ticker - no diversification

* All in a few different stock tickers that are in the same industry sector (that you are knowledgeable about) - diversified businesses, but not diversified across industries

* S&P500 spray and pray - largely diversified

Option #2 is imo the solid middle ground, and it gels perfectly fine with your idea that you gotta know what you invest in. Yes, it is riskier than option #3, because it doesn’t account for the scenario where the entire industry sector experiences a downturn. But it is still diversified, still has the potential to make you wealthy, and is not nearly as risky as option #1 (but also not as capped as option #3).

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#359

Post by sinatra »

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #293
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

I always invest based on a d20. Back when BTC was $1 I rolled one and got a natural 20 so I knew it would take off. I put my life savings into it and cashed out last year. Now I own three yachts and two islands and have the whole day free to troll on HN.

And the d20 rolled a 12 when you checked it for duration to hold? Man, lucky you! Give the dice a kiss!

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#360

Post by skirmish »

shostack wrote: post #182
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

I'll do it one better. As a gamer when I was younger, I knew they were the future. I asked for shares for my bday at the time and got them at least at $22.88 a share as that's as far back as my records go.

Hah, as a starving student I knew 3d gaming was the future, and thus scrounged $1.5k to invest into TDFX. Next, they sold all assets to NVDA and dissolved the company [1].

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20010405091710/http://www.3dfx.c...

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