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U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

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Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#351
post #102

I am so tired of China being used to stoke American jingoism, of politicians making a contest of who is really 'tough on China' and, most horrifyingly, of seeing other USians online practically salivate as they fantasize about a war with China. It's some cold war boogieman horseshit. And it's depressing to watch here on Hacker News, too, any comments that question the beating of those war drums go dead. Yesterday I h…

China is not simply rolled out as a boogeyman. Apart from any of their ambitions, at minimum the worlds reliance on them for various resources and manufacturing capacity almost exclusively has, in the last 2.5 years, been revealed as an extreme flaw and risk to global economic stability when that resource and manufacturing pipeline is disrupted.

That is, at a bare minimum, a serious problem that will take years to solve.

Now, bringing geopolitics back into things, China as a government does not have geopolitical goals that aligne with those of the western world. Without even placing value judgements on those goals, this fact alone is serious enough to warrant extreme caution in dealing with the Chinese government. Whether Western powers do bad things or China does bad things or both do or who is worse— those things are irrelevant on this point. The goals of each are incompatible and this will unavoidably cause each side(s) to come into conflict with each other.

These all leave aside any value judgements on government styles, human rights, etc. The issues above are all basic and fundamental problems and differences that should cause the west to be extremely cautious and skeptical of the surface appearance of any actions taken by the Chinese government. They are similarly wise to be cautious and skeptical on their side. This is simply the basic state of geopolitics, and acting in accordance with this state of affairs is not jingoism.

What we should hope for is to continue to work toward finding common ground at least in so far as the conflicts remain political, economic, etc. and not violent or militaristic. But you can’t engage in that sort of relationship if you keep your eyes closed to the true nature of, and differences between, the goals and values of the various players involved here.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a taiwanese who lurks on hacker news for many years but when I saw this post I had to make an account. You are dead wrong, China is an enemy of the free world, pure and simple. South Koreans and Ukrainians would agree with me here. Especially since China has declared no limit friendship with russia

It is possible to believe both "China bad" and "we should not go to war with them". That's the key part I think OP has noticed with (mostly US) western media coverage of China lately: It's not just "China bad" but it this preparatory drumbeat of war that is written between the lines. There are a lot of countries Americans might consider bad. But the news media isn't subtly and constantly hinting that we might want to…

Please point out some American media claiming we should go to war with China. That's just a ridiculous statement. There is no amping up for offensive war with China. There is plenty of amping up of concern that China will invade Taiwan and that we'll likely need to defend them. However the US is actively trying to prevent that from happening by being loud on the global stage and actively trying to show that the US doesn't respect China's territorial claims to prevent that type of thinking from rooting in China's psyche.

Ironically I think the Ukraine war has shown the best demonstration for China on why they shouldn't attempt a Taiwan invasion. Their rhetoric about Taiwan I feel has gone down since that war started.

The US is trying to avoid war, not start one.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a taiwanese who lurks on hacker news for many years but when I saw this post I had to make an account. You are dead wrong, China is an enemy of the free world, pure and simple. South Koreans and Ukrainians would agree with me here. Especially since China has declared no limit friendship with russia

As a South Korean, well, I don't like the Chinese government either, but these aggressive rhetorics don't help. My own country was under decades of pro-American dictators, all the while conveniently enjoying the membership of the Free World(TM): at that point, what does "free" even mean? I'm not saying America is the force of evil; it has done some nice things, and some other pretty horrible things. What I'm trying t…

Not being in the Freeworld might look something like North Korea and not having a forum like this ?

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#354
post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're only examining one side of the story. Live in China for some time and see how they look at the rest of the world and people. And look at how we treat other current threats on the world stage at the moment. We do not make a special case for China --if anything the US has wishfully thought that if we treat them like a democracy they'll become a democracy and that has proven incorrect.

US foreign policy is not about spreading democracy. That's a bedtime story told to young Americans who don't know any better. The US is fine working with dictators; it's when those dictators stop playing ball or are ousted that we suddenly want to spread democracy. Noriega, Hussein and the Shah are easy examples.

Ok, to use American parlance, we expected them to play ball on an even field. Of course pols/biz were blinded by the big $$ in their eyes and could not see beyond that, but the expectation with was that the legacy of Deng and Hu would continue to soften the CCP and eventually become (economic) "partners" of some sort. Maybe not completely an open democracy but also definitely not the more authoritarian swerve it's taken over the last 10 years or so.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#355
post #146

Spy balloon cost : $3k - $50k , you can even buy them on alibaba and some other sites: https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-hot-sale-surveillance-balloon-with_60454941082.html https://www.made-in-china.com/showroom/jennerjiang/product-list/catalog-1.html?view=0 Cost to shoot down balloon with F22 $400k for the AIM-9X, ~$85k for 1 hour of flight time, so ~$400 - $500k to shoot down one balloon that cost < $50k

I guess China just discovered a strategy how to drain US of some resources. Just let out a lot of scientific baloons and let the dirft away.

I mean if it became enough of an issue it would not be hard to deal with them with some other type of weapon.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA425537.pdf

Laser weapons were not highly effective against fast objects like ICBMs, but a slow moving weak object like a balloon should represent a pretty easy target.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sort of calculations are slightly silly. F22s take off for training flights all the time, having one training flight switch to operational does not affect the cost. It’s similar for using missiles. The opportunity to shoot a real one at a real target is good training. Those things costs this money perhaps, but it’s not a useful way to think of it this way for such a case.

I think the implication is not that the cost in this specific case was very high. I think the point was that there is an assymetry in cost. So, if someone wanted to have balloons over the USA, it would be much cheaper for them to try than it would be for the USA to stop them. By the time someone starts sending 1000's of balloons, the costs to destroy them may add up.

You could also just be trying to apply logic to someone with a low-cost, nonsensical argument. The irony being that it's the same sort of attack you're describing, but on your brain.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#357
post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall very similar comments a year ago talking about how there was no way that Putin would attempt to invade Ukraine and it was just American jingoism.

While that's true, i think crimea and the associated warm water port (sevastopol) is of strategic value. After the crimean invasion, the mainland of ukraine has cut off the water canal, which meant that the peninsular needs to be constantly supported by the russian mainland. It's not quite sustainable in the long term for russia to do that. The land bridge is their "solution". I don't see taiwan as similarly strategi…

The Russians could have (and indeed should have) just taken Donetsk and Luhansk and protected the waterway if that was their goal.

Their goal was (and is) not that. Their goal was the destruction of Ukraine as a country, and it's forced reunification with Russia as a foundational step in the re-emergence of a Russian empire.

If you read Chinese defense arguments about Taiwan, they basically make the same hypothesis. Control of Taiwan forces the strategic sublimation of Japan and Korea, and re-establishes a Chinese empire.

Dictators don't come up with new ideas.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#358
post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall very similar comments a year ago talking about how there was no way that Putin would attempt to invade Ukraine and it was just American jingoism.

While that's true, i think crimea and the associated warm water port (sevastopol) is of strategic value. After the crimean invasion, the mainland of ukraine has cut off the water canal, which meant that the peninsular needs to be constantly supported by the russian mainland. It's not quite sustainable in the long term for russia to do that. The land bridge is their "solution". I don't see taiwan as similarly strategi…

The "solution" was to not invade Crimea in the first place, forcing Ukraine's hand followed by a second invasion of Ukrainian territory in the west. You're conveniently forgetting that Crimea was not the only territory invaded by Russia.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple people reported that it was visible to naked eye from the ground, it must have been huge for that.

I saw it from my car today while driving before I knew it was going to be in my area. It was very visible to the naked eye. It was large enough that the perspective made it seem a lot lower altitude than it actually was.

I think it was at 60,000 ft. It’s got to be pretty damn big to be so obvious to casual ground observers.

It will be very interesting to see, to the extent that details are released to the public, the parameters and specs of this thing.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#360
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From your point of view, I can see how China is bad and the USA is good. But ask someone whose country got invaded by the USA or whose bloody dictator got supported by the USA. Over here in Latinamerica we still remember the horrible things that the USA did. It seems to me (but I could have a false perception) that China is a horrible bully in their corner of the world (nine dash line and, of course their will to inv…

The U.S. hasn’t done anything to any country even close to being the equivalent of what China did in Tibet. Or is doing to the Uighurs in its own country. And that’s a China that has had economic and military power at an international level for less than 2 decades. All that being said, there’s no real point in comparing which one has been historically worse to determine who is destabilizing the world more in any give…

Well arguably what America / Europe did to the native Americans was worse. And it's a shame in these current times when America could do with being the stand up ethical superpower there hasn't been a nationwide recognition of that.

This is a partial and partly formed view of mine. I don't have great knowledge of the history.

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