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President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

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Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#351

Post by taskforcegemini »

somedude895 wrote: post #45
yodsanklai wrote: post #13

Stupid question, but what does Putin want exactly? what will end the war?

At first the aim was to overthrow the Western-oriented government and install a puppet government in Ukraine. Then he realized Ukrainians didn't actually want that and were willing and able to fight back. So now he's basically looking for anything he can reasonably sell as a success to his own populace to be able to end the war as soon as possible. Annexing more of Ukraine, especially the Donbass, is one such thing.…

Iran is probably not the best example right now, with people on the streets rioting and shouting death to the dictator and all

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#352

Post by Markoff »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #297
Markoff wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are then US, UK and other countries estimates about Ukraine losses? Because they certainly aren't in linked Wikipedia article and all I can find in Google is just Ukrainian propaganda and few articles from Russian claims (which are on opposite side of spectrum, not thta those ridiculous US estimates would not be propaganda as well).

> all I can find in Google is just Ukrainian propaganda There is no use discussing it if any results that contradict you are "propaganda"

> all I can find in Google is just Ukrainian propaganda and few articles from Russian claims

As I said all I can find for Ukrainian losses is Ukrainian propaganda straight from Ukrainian gov or Russian propaganda from Russian gov. I wanna filter out both of these extremes and see some reasonable numbers since any data from RU/UA are clearly completely unrealistic for their own purposes.

"Information" spread by Ukrainian gov ais well known propaganda and not "information", there is no point to call them otherwise.

There is really no use of discussing it if you can't provide independent estimates by UK, US or even better some more neutral observers like China, India, etc.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#353

Post by yrgulation »

apurtbapurt wrote: post #321
yrgulation wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is interesting how neither the Russians nor the West delves on to what extent this whole affair is about Germany, and the role Germany played in all this. And thats fine, because the issue is neither russia not the west. The issue is east europe, the region of it thats sandwiched between russia and central europe (germany). Just to be clear, my aim is not germans but german politics which find it extremely conve…

The EU is an alliance of shared interests and some very basic shared ideals. We are allies, not soulmates or lovers. That is not intended to defend people who speak ill of their neighbours. Bad manners are always ugly. Just pointing out that being nice is not a prerequisite for being a useful and even so.ewhat dependable ally.

> We are allies, not soulmates or lovers.

To me it appears exactly that. One is abusive one is complacent. S/he hits me because s/he loves me. Thats the attitude of people in allied countries each time germany or the eu imposes sanctions because of “corruption” or some other wanna be do good reason, all the while their corrupt partners in the two entities walk free. In fact it hits the very same people, whom somehow think bowing their heads and slaving around europe is a good idea. Instead they should develop a personality and standup. When they warned germany its policies towards russia would backfire and were ignored they should have played the sanctions game just as hard. Do business with russia, but dont sell scrapyard cars in east europe. Abuse workers and smear them in the media, dont do business in east europe.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#354

Post by sofixa »

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #255
sofixa wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has plenty of nukes for the US and Europe if Putin decides the murder-suicide path is the only way forward. The problem with your line of thinking is that Russia needs to lose. It's citizens need to understand that it has lost. Germany after WWI didn't and it gave rise to the stab in the back myth and nationalism. If Russia is allowed to spin anything as a victory here, it and it's citizens would learn nothing…

What is that supposed to achieve exactly? The reverse of what you are writing actually happened at the end of WW1 by the way. Germany definitely understood they lost. They were humiliated, were dragged to Versailles to sign an armistice treaty and had to pay an insane reparation amount. That’s what gave rise to nationalism. Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is gr…

> They were humiliated, were dragged to Versailles to sign an armistice treaty and had to pay an insane reparation amount.

Technically the armistice is in Compiègne, the peace treaty is in Versailles (as revenge for the proclamation of the German empire there after the Franco-Prussian war), but yes, however

> Germany definitely understood they lost.

This is false. Germans were getting glorious victories propaganda up until Ludendorff said they can't win, and threw the hot potato at the Kaiser and a civilian government was formed to seek a peace. So from a citizen's perspective, there were privations but they were winning until suddenly there's a civilian government, communist rebels and we have surrendered (to be later humiliated). Germany wasn't occupied. The German people didn't understand they lost, really, and why. Hence Ludendorff's stab in the back myth and nationalism proliferated.

> Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished.

But Russians don't know that because they're being fed propaganda to the opposite effect. So if today Putin declares withdrawal, Russian people won't know what happened and why, so we'll be back at it in a few years time.

The point isn't to make Russia suffer for the humiliation, but Russians need to understand they've lost and all the horrors they've inflicted while losing. And yes, they should pay for it.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#355

Post by kjeetgill »

adamc wrote: post #340
spywaregorilla wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia enjoyed a brief surplus with high gas prices. It has collapsed and the government is now running a towards a hefty deficit. About 90% gone in just two months. Government spending is being cut down by 10% next year, while a greater share is allocated to the military, meaning actual useful domestic spending is going to go down even more. The sanctions are having a strong effect. The military spending is cushione…

It's worse than that. They have limited storage and if they can't sell much of the oil, they have to turn the wells off. Problem there is that the oil will freeze in the winter, the pipes crack, and then it takes a lot of work and expense to turn it back on. Or so I have heard -- not posing as an expert on oil fields.

Yea, but sadly that means they just burn it off instead of letting it freeze.

Yay global carbon emissions.

https://amp.dw.com/en/what-is-the-environmental-cost-of-gas-...

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#356

Post by KptMarchewa »

tatersolid wrote: post #350
KptMarchewa wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Ukraine will fail eventually unless they can effectively force-multiply like we've never seen in any other armed conflict. Ukrainian equipment is getting better with western donations while russian one is effectively running out of it. The newly mobilized units won't have anything better than soviet-era versions of T-72 and T-80, BMP-1 and D-20 howitzer, not even talking about T-62M. Ammo, missle and protective equi…

I don’t think any NATO nation will send much in the way of tanks. Tanks are a giant target on a modern battlefield. As superior as the latest Abrams might be to most other tanks, anti-tank weaponry is far better and fairly cheap these days. The Russians are “fighting the last war” again, expecting numerical superiority in armor and artillery to win. It isn’t working.

> I don’t think any NATO nation will send much in the way of tanks. Tanks are a giant target on a modern battlefield. As superior as the latest Abrams might be to most other tanks, anti-tank weaponry is far better and fairly cheap these days.

Latest Ukrainian offensive disproves your notion. Maneuver warfare still works and can be employed by capable troops. And this was with done with relative parity of equipment - situation would look way different if Ukraine had order of magnitude better western tanks.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#357

Post by spywaregorilla »

emptyfile wrote: post #346
timeon wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Ukrainian troops are pretty spread out It would be probably civilian target.

Targeting a civilian target with a strategic weapon is a completely different thing than tactical nuclear weapons. Kiev getting nuked means all out nuclear war. At the very least you know Putin loves himself too much to die like that.

Why would Kyiv getting nuked spark all out nuclear war. Would you, as the head of NATO, press the 'Everyone Dies' button if kyiv got nuked?

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#358

Post by homeland221 »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #154

A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that. In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad s…

Those bad things you concluded are mostly sourced from Ukrainian MoD. Winter is coming. Mother of all recession is coming to EU and America within nezt 2-3mths. Putin is preparing for overwhelming offensive (read up WW2 Russians modus operandi and you'll understand what Putin is thinking). Chinese side has been pumping resources like manpower and factories to Putin (in return for the EU portion of energy redirected to China). Heck even financial flows as well. You are looking at extremely well play chess moves. Hard to say for that for Americans...really pathetic seeing after 20 years gotten humiliated by a bunch of goat herders. Gotten kicked out of Iraq. If you have relatives toured in those failed wars you will know the casualty count were grossly understated. The only things I'm worried is USA launching nukes (US is the only country in the world ever to use nuke against others). I'm less worried about Putin. He moved very rationally. Once those regions declared joining Russia, any offensive from Ukraine will be deemed as invading Russia. This easily can justify huge number of military response with huge Russian public backing (despite what you read in the west, I suggest you try Russian soirces or friends...you'll be very surprised how different reality over there to what you thought).

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#359

Post by emptyfile »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #357
emptyfile wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Targeting a civilian target with a strategic weapon is a completely different thing than tactical nuclear weapons. Kiev getting nuked means all out nuclear war. At the very least you know Putin loves himself too much to die like that.

Why would Kyiv getting nuked spark all out nuclear war. Would you, as the head of NATO, press the 'Everyone Dies' button if kyiv got nuked?

Yes.

Ukraine is in Europe. Nuking Ukraine means the wind will likely carry the fallout radiation into Russia, Belarus and Poland at the least.

I doesn't matter if its 1 nuke or a 100 nukes, irradiating NATO citizens is THE red line.

If Russia can nuke Europe without fear of reprisal, then NATO is defunct and a new nuclear arms race will probably start in Europe, with unforeseeable consequences.

So I would say yes, if Russia nukes a European capital with a multi-million pop, then nuclear war with Russia is the only course of action.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#360

Post by hnthrway »

fractallyte wrote: post #79
yodsanklai wrote: post #13

Stupid question, but what does Putin want exactly? what will end the war?

Well... it's complicated by the firehose of Russian propaganda, but their actions make it clear: eradication and assimilation of Ukrainian culture and nation, and the seizure of Ukraine's territory and resources - 'genocide' sums it up succinctly. Putin's regime has demonstrated that the lives of ordinary Russians are meaningless in the pursuit of its political goals - just like every Russian/Soviet regime before it.…

Genocide is hyperbole, a true genocide would be enough to turn public opinion against the war, there are millions of Ukrainians living throughout Russia and millions of Russians living in Ukraine
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