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Crypto is an unproductive bubble

alexkolchinski.com

351–360 of 539 posts

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just repeated the wording of your story while ignoring my post entirely. 1) Contract implies consenting parties. Using the word in another capacity is a frame. It being a popular one doesnt change that. 2) Your actions entailing a lot more then just your declared intentions. As in your definition of harmful being quite broad. Or differently put, you have a story which with you justify forcing people around.

Any contract must be backed up by force, or else it’s meaningless. As an example, if you enter into a legal contract, that contract is backed up by the threat of litigation (and by extension, force). If it weren’t, there wouldn’t be any incentive to obey it. And yes, I do believe that the consensus is that activities with an outsized climate impact are harmful.

Others maintain the view that central bank driven infinite debt a/k/a "economic growth" is the key driver of global warming, rather than it's antithesis.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bad call. Governments can change things. Blockchain is eternal.

I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on the DAO rollback

I am a Bitcoiner, and I don’t really care for that premine coin eth. Lots of scams on that platform too.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#353
post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a major problem. Without redesign, this falls on "q-day". https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/post-quantum-cryptography/rou... "Formal complaint regarding 8 June 2021 incident - 2021.06.15, Daniel J. Bernstein "Executive summary. A week ago Dr. Daniel Apon from NIST publicly accused me of professional misconduct. Specifically, he accused me of initiating private contact with NIST so as to provide false information…

Never heard of this. Is this a bot comment? the link doesn't indicate how this fail on a so called q-day

This is what I've read on the subject of q-day.

The gist is that Shor's algorithm might not be strictly necessary with a quantum annealer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2021/06/07/q-day-i...

There is consensus on this question.

  * ssh(1), sshd(8): add the sntrup761x25519-sha512@openssh.com hybrid
   ECDH/x25519 + Streamlined NTRU Prime post-quantum KEX to the
   default KEXAlgorithms list (after the ECDH methods but before the
   prime-group DH ones). The next release of OpenSSH is likely to
   make this key exchange the default method.
https://www.openssh.com/releasenotes.html

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#354

Nothing in here that hasn't been said in the last 10 year. It's tempting to dismiss it as a bubble. But; most bubbles don't get 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th... etc. chances. Every time bitcoin crashes people say "this one is different, this time it's dead for real", then it bounces back. It's proving to be far more cockroach like than anyone anticipated. In the more distant future, if bitcoin survives, its utility will just be…

Bubbles only look like pure movement in one direction when zoomed out, the 90’s stock market had plenty of setbacks on what we recall as a seemingly endless rise. For example 1997-10-27 the DOW had a single day drop of −7.18%, a direct quote from the time period: "I came in to look at my stock prices and I said, 'Oh my God, it's a crash!’” But nope just a minor correction. https://money.cnn.com/1997/10/27/markets/marketwrap/

Crypto is inherently less stable which amplifies minor corrections, but that’s not what crypto’s bubble bursting looks like. When prices drop 99% that’s when the bubbles burst.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transfer mechanism are all that any currencies are. All currencies are dependent on being spendable. Thats just a question of adaptation, as in somebody else accepting it in the expectation that it will hold value and be spendable in the future. Involuntary adaptation historically leads to drastic inflation with the trust in the purchasing power degrading. If you are forced to accept it despite low trust, you are mot…

> All currencies are dependent on being spendable. Right, and the issue here is that Bitcoin is not spendable without first being converted to a better currency that normal merchants like your grocer will accept. That's Bitcoin's weak point, you clamp down on exchanges and suddenly it can't be used with most merchants. > Involuntary adaptation historically leads to drastic inflation with the trust in the purchasing p…

I can buy drugs and apparently some food deliveries. I get your point but thats just a question of adaptation.

To the other point, i described the mechanism of adaptation. If the current mechanism of transfer stops working people historically fall back to anything else that works. They have to use something, trade must go on so they choose the next best thing till something better emerges. The involuntary pressure on the value then starts over when that emerging currency is blocked by force again.

Its all just the description of peoples behavior. People dont like loosing money and will act to prevent it.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#356
post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Credit cards companies charge businesses that allow consumers to use them a fee. Business often pass this fee on to the consumer, sometimes even explicitly. For example gas stations usually publish separate prices for gas w/ or w/o credit card. That fee is the main revenue source for the credit card company, and fraud reimbursement is one of their expenses. Expenses go up? Fees go up. In this way businesses (and le…

I'm really arguing for discourse, not one side or the other. I've used charge backs multiple times. But after thinking about it a while I realized that I've probably paid more in this hidden premium than I've recovered from reimbursement. Until COVID hit and I had to refute multi thousand dollar plane tickets that were never able to be used. Will I have paid more for the premium or less by the end of my life? No idea…

So far in my life I haven't come close to breaking even on my car liability insurance. I haven't filed a single claim on my home insurance. I guess it's a wise decision to cancel these. Instead I should just try harder to not have my house destroyed in a storm or have an auto accident.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#357
post #337
post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're comparing a centralized approach with the force of law to a decentralized approach which requires buy-in by the masses without any coercion. Of course the two approaches will be different.

TCP/IP was standardized in 1983. Nine years later I had an email address. Two years later I had full IP access (telnet, Usenet, ftp, web). I never stopped using it, even though specific protocols like ftp faded away. In contrast, I bought some cryptos five years ago and dabbled in Solidity too, but there was just nothing to do with it because it’s so clunky and wasteful. I don’t expect to ever touch that stuff again.…

I understand your argument but it’s disingenuous to say TCP started in 83. It was widely published in 74 with implementations in 75.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm really arguing for discourse, not one side or the other. I've used charge backs multiple times. But after thinking about it a while I realized that I've probably paid more in this hidden premium than I've recovered from reimbursement. Until COVID hit and I had to refute multi thousand dollar plane tickets that were never able to be used. Will I have paid more for the premium or less by the end of my life? No idea…

So far in my life I haven't come close to breaking even on my car liability insurance. I haven't filed a single claim on my home insurance. I guess it's a wise decision to cancel these. Instead I should just try harder to not have my house destroyed in a storm or have an auto accident.

You absolutely should try harder to not have an at-fault auto accident for your and other people's sake. I'd also recommend having massive dying trees cut down near your house.

I've used a 2% cash back credit card for the last 5+ years. If the CC Company offered to make it 3% in exchange for reduced or inhibited fraud insurance I would seriously consider it.

I've also foregone health and home insurance in some instances.

But I appreciate that risk assessment is absolutely not for everyone.

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