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The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

lynalden.com

351–360 of 364 posts

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Midwest US can assure you that they've definitely already tried this. We're literally mowing down every cornfield for housing here (I'm typing this from a neighborhood with thousands of units, 90% of all buildings here were built after 2012). It never works, prices are still at an all-time high, even for units on the market 6+ months or longer. "Just building more" alone isn't ever going to lower prices enough to…

You can't say it never works because your definition of "works" is completely off base. The population is continuously growing. We must build housing as fast as it grows to just maintain parity, and even faster to reduce prices. Saying building new houses doesn't work to lower prices is like being in a boat taking on water and after throwing a couple buckets of water overboard saying "bailing out water doesn't work"…

There are loads and loads of places where houses are built faster than population is growing, or population is just falling, period.

Prices. Keep. Going. Up.

It has nothing to do with population, it has everything to do with interest rates and mortgate terms.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#352
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW I agree with your thought process here. Proclamations of certainty around UBI are common, but the only intellectually honest position is that we simply do not have enough empirical data to tell with a useful level of confidence how a UBI would affect inflation. Also, I believe that the only way to collect that empirical data is to implement a UBI at a sufficiently large scale and see what happens.

There really is no reason why you wouldn’t be able to pair government intervention on the demand side (i.e. UBI) with government intervention on the supply side. Simply introduce quotas about supply (e.g. that shops cannot throw away more than 1% of the food they sell), and/or limits on non-productive assets (e.g. freeze rents & Netflix subscription). I’m sure there are many smarter interventions than I was able to c…

Welcome to the Soviet Union! They tried exactly that and failed spectacularly at it. Centrally planned economy simply does not work, it's a law of nature.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#353
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I forgot to specify that the 100 million is entirely printed money. Whatever the way you see it, that 100 million of buying power should not exist and eventually ends up lifting the prices of normal goods just with the economic activity it generates.

i mean, if you claim that $100 million was printed, then regardless of whether it's netflix or something else, it may increase inflation. But the thing is, there hasn't been that much money printed by the FEDs or the US gov't. The stimulus cheques are not money printing, but money borrowing - a major difference. Borrowed money needs to be paid back, and so there may be temporary inflation caused by said stimulus, but…

"Borrowed money" is wrong term here. Yes, officially US government is borrowing it, but it is borrowing from FED which does not really have the money.

Imagine this: you need $100k so you come to me, and I write you a check. BUT: you're not allowed to cash that check. Instead you use it as collateral for a $100k bank loan. But the bank is not allowed to cash my check either, it can only put it into safety deposit box. And if you default on your loan bank will put that check on auction. So, time flies an no one ever tries to cash my check. And if they ever tried they would find that I never had that $100k in my account in the first place. I "printed" that money when I wrote the check. That's how "borrowing" between FED and Government works, and that's why it is money printing. FED is bluffing about having all that money, but no one is legally allowed to call their bluff.

Also: no, those loans will never be repaid. With Modern Monetary Theory debt can only increase in nominal value, until US follows the trajectory of Venezuela, becoming a failed state with hyperinflation.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#354

This chart in the expense share of a typical income illustrates a number of issues well, but healthcare stands out like crazy: https://mobile.twitter.com/_cingraham/status/123195012984367... College, transportation and housing are all pretty high overall, but the healthcare share is just stunning. If we were looking at dramatically better outcomes or services, fine. Unfortunately, doctors get to see patients for less…

I think healthcare is 3 fold: 1. Is that it is just out of control in the US, but there are also some valid reasons, like, 2. Aging population. As people get older, they need more medical care, so an aging population will have higher average healthcare spend than a young population. 3. Advances in healthcare tech. We can treat more things, so there are more things to receive healthcare services for. And we can also t…

Nope; only your first point is valid. Both of the other fail at the example of, well, pretty much every other developed nation.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#355
post #279
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US does really well at high end care. It does less well in terms of overall agregate health outcomes. As I recall last time I saw a really good analysis if this posted to HN, You have to take into account a few other risk factors (obesity etc) in addition (to how infant mortality it reported) to get the US health outcomes inline with other developed nation. Even then, the US ends up paying way more to achieve tha…

>>You have to take into account a few other risk factors (obesity etc) i I disagree, we have a free society, and one of my concerns about a government run health care system is that it would allow encroachments upon that freedom. I do not need or want a parent via the government. I neither need nor want the government passing laws to control what food I eat, how much food I eat, or what health choices I make The ques…

Oh Jesus fuck, what is it about (some) Americans that makes them so aggressively unable to see beyond their own blinkered horizons? Is it something in the water?

Approximately none of your screed had anything whatsofuckingever to do with reality.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#356
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If she's not an economist, what is it that lends credence to her writing about economics and monetary policy?

I was waiting for the first gatekeeping comment, and there it is.

What's "gatekeeping" about asking for credentials? Does the fact that she's not an economist also automatically make her an authority on astronomy, medicine, and history, or how does this work...? "No no no, in order to be an authority on astronomy it doesn't help not to be an economist; you need not to be a historian!", or what?

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, it's the long term solution. The short term solution is to stop all trade deficits and let your country suffer over the long term.

Krugman would be proud.

And right.

Sorry, but mercantilism has been debunked. Not even all that recently.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't believe your number. Citation required. And I'm serious about that. I'm sure it's possible to get that number somehow, but the devil is in the details. Do you factor in: - Famines? - Wars? - Being killed by bandits? - Are you talking about the city of Rome? Italy? Gaul? - Just rich people, or do you include folks like slaves? - Etc. If you're going to accuse me of giving bad information, you'll need to provid…

this is direct from wikipedia's article on ancient roman demographics. first result on google. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_Roman_Empire... .

I figured. Google it, find the first random web page, and type it in.

This article is a summary of one random historian, Frier.

Probably better summary of evidence:

https://archive.org/details/demographyromans0000park/page/20...

"We have a single papyrus record of 122 individuals listed in a register of taxes. Of these 122, 85 have ages extant. ... only 8 are over the age of 49 years, and only 2 of those are over 54"

"average life expectance at age 15 range from 8.3 to 15.4 years."

Etc. There's a broad set of estimates, but the estimate of 50 years is simply not plausible, unless you're talking about the wealthy elite. Being poor in Rome sucked.

And with Rome, I guess that's usually the case.

I'll mention: For all the talk of infant mortality, most infant deaths in history weren't recorded. The figure everyone tosses around -- 28 years -- sort of already takes that into account.

I've given up on editing bad Wikipedia pages a long time ago.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might sound an odd way to phrase things, but it was both more fine-grained and more meaningful than your rephrasing. The average Indian earns less than 4 dollars a day. The average Indian still buys their shampoo in little 5ml sachets that cost 2cents because they can't afford the full bottle even though buying the full bottle would be cheaper in the long run. So, the average Indian definitely can't afford to pay…

I wonder how that compares to the financial demographics of China? I had the impression they were bringing more citizens up into the lower-middle class, but I might have just uncritically accepted some spin.

China's per capita GDP is over 10,000 USD. Their middle class is already huge.

I think a decent analogy is that Chinese market is approximately the size of USA and India's is approximately the size of Canada.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Housing prices are not driven by scarcity, they are driven by financialization of our economy. There are multiple cities in England where population has decreased but house prices increased. During lockdown 700k people left London, but house prices kept going up.

Triple the housing supply. Prices will go down.

in 2008 they even built "investment houses" far from any water or electricity supply, with no one living there.
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