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Tesla Q1 2021 Results

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Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#351

Post by audunw »

anonu wrote: post #50

> We believe that a vision-only system is ultimately all that is needed for full autonomy. Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision. This is a huge gamble IM…

This is just my personal belief: but I really don't think an AI advanced enough to actually do self-driving will have trouble getting all the information it needs from cameras.

It seems to me that accurately determining signs, construction work, pedestrians, bikes, and even the intention/direction of these, is way harder than just reconstructing a 3D space from the cameras. I think the neural nets will have to do this internally anyway to be able to predict the direction a pedestrian is about to walk.

So I think LIDAR may be a benefit for limited self-driving in the short term. If it's a benefit in the long term remains to be seen, but there's good arguments that Teslas gamble will pay off, as they're allowed to use all their focus on the part of the AI that's most important for daily driving.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#352

Post by simonh »

pyrale wrote: post #271
lumost wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

And they'll produce more cars than there are atoms in the universe before the end of this century.

If the singularity happens on schedule they'll all be paperclips long before then.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#353

Post by [deleted] »

vesinisa wrote: post #300
kaba0 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you seriously writing it under a comment that just linearly extrapolated tesla’s production?

I am not even downvoting that comment because it seems to be such a great example of the blatant cognitive dissonance Tesla and Musk evoke in many people.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#354

Post by throwaway4good »

lumost wrote: post #224
cs702 wrote: post #132

Whatever you may think of Tesla and Musk, you have to agree that they've accomplished something rather incredible. Few would have thought this possible not that long ago: * 185K vehicle deliveries in Q1, +109% versus a year ago [a] * 2.7K supercharger stations, +41% versus a year ago * 24.5K supercharger connectors, +44% versus a year ago * 92 MW of solar generation deployed in Q1, +163% versus a year ago * 445 MWh o…

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

Or phrased in a different manner:

Tesla needs to double their car production, every year, the next 4 years to get to the size of Toyota or VW.

How realistic is that?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#355

Post by tompccs »

dagw wrote: post #347
nine_k wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the market expands faster than your market share shrinks, your business still grows. Examples: IBM with IBM PC, Apple with iPhone.

Examples: IBM with IBM PC And we all know how many IBM PCs IBM has sold over the past decade. I think that IBM might actually be the most apt analogy for Tesla. 20 years from now Tesla will be a niche player in the market they built basically from scratch.

I mean, as a TSLA shareholder I'm...fine with that? A few years ago people were predicting the company would go bankrupt before they ever became profitable, now the bear scenario is that they become the largest company in their sector by a huge margin until settling into dominant complacency.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#356

Post by emptyfile »

vardump wrote: post #254
xkjkls wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Musk is nearly a clone of Jobs in affect and attitude and reality distortion effect. Eh, Musk has more negative tendencies than Jobs, especially related to his public behavior and honesty. Whatever you might think of Jobs, whenever he issued a firm statement it came true. iPhones were always released on schedule. Musk is years late and many miles short on almost every product he announces. Full Self Driving was sup…

Not trying to defend Musk, but his goals are orders of magnitudes harder than what Jobs had to face. Musk is on a mission to Mars and is scared of anything that might delay his ultimate goal.

That fact that people still write this shit with a straight face makes me want to become a hermit and leave this world behind...

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#357

Post by vardump »

emptyfile wrote: post #356
vardump wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not trying to defend Musk, but his goals are orders of magnitudes harder than what Jobs had to face. Musk is on a mission to Mars and is scared of anything that might delay his ultimate goal.

That fact that people still write this shit with a straight face makes me want to become a hermit and leave this world behind...

Can you elaborate? I'm pretty convinced that's Musk's true motivation. He put his personal fortunes at stake based on this conviction, nearly losing it all.

Seems crazy for someone to do that unless it's truly their greatest passion.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#358

Post by Angostura »

LordDragonfang wrote: post #343
3dee wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now Tesla is outperforming competition on three points: * 0-100km/h times * Range * Charging network I believe most people don't care about the 0-100 speed. And most people can live with a little less range. So this leaves the network as a selling point. I believe it depends on the country how important this is. For example in the Netherlands you can cross the whole country on one charge. So you don't need a ne…

In the European market the range advantage might not be a big deal, but it's a major selling point in the American market. Probably the biggest concern I hear from people about going electric-only is range anxiety - the notion that they might need to drive a long distance on a whim and worry they might be "stranded" with no battery, regardless of the actual likelihood of that. With America's generally poor public tra…

I think even in the European market it may be a factor. It's not uncommon to drive somewhere on summer holidays, I'm in the UK and sometimes drive across France or down to Spain for summer hols - or skiing holidays. It's stupid that this is a consideration when buying a car, I know. But it certainly has a chilling effect when I think about our over-night drives to get to the Alps for a Saturday morning.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#359

Post by ttkari »

bildung wrote: post #334
watt wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you sold 1 car yesterday, and sell 2 today, you have doubled your sales. It's misleading to talk about growth in terms of percentage points (or doubling/tripling, etc), if it's somewhat low numbers.

VW already sold 134k in 2020, of which 56k were the id.3 that effectively was available since september 2020.

In Norway, where 54% on new cars sold in 2020 were electric, Volkswagen group sold more than twice as many electric cars (mostly Audi e-Tron and VW id.3) as Tesla.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#360

Post by Angostura »

iso1631 wrote: post #281
sharken wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Europe there is still too few charging facilities. Basically an EV only makes sense if you own a house and can get your own charger. The V2 supercharger still needs around 20 minutes for an 80% charge, while the new BMW iX3 needs around 30 minutes for 80%. The Tesla V3 supercharger is promising, but the killer feature will be a unified charging platform and not one for each car maker.

> Basically an EV only makes sense if you own a house and can get your own charger. New houses in the UK have required chargers as part of planning permission for 5 years. Most people have, or can have, a 3KW socket installed in their driveway, very cheaply (like 2-3 tanks of fuel) 73% of cars in the UK are parked on private property overnight. Most cars do under 8,000 miles a year, or 160 miles a week, 77% of cars p…

There are large city areas with no off-street parking.

I'm currently sitting in a terraced house in East London.

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