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When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#351

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

Once upon a time, the iPod wasn't useful to every person, because not everyone wanted to take music with them wherever they went. Nowadays, if you don't have a phone in your pocket that can play music, you're in the minority of the world population.

I think that at some point there will be an iPhone moment for VR. However, I think we're still far enough away from it to not know what it'll look like.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t gaming a larger industry than the movies, driven largely by consoles? Seems like gaming had its iPhone moment a generation ago. Edit: gaming is larger than the movie and music industries combined

Games cost a lot more than music and movies. $50, $60, $70 per game... Gamers like to pay for collectables, DLC, limited editions, figurines, steam sales for games they don't play, etc. Meanwhile unlimited music streaming is $9/mo. (Are concerts and merch considered in the "industry" revenues?) Unlimited steaming on Netflix is $13.99/mo for their mid-tier plan. If games had an "unlimited streaming" subscription equiv…

I'd imagine the $ spent per unit of time for games today (especially live service games) is very low. In fact, I believe gaming is one of the most cost effective forms of entertainment. There are games that can be completed in a few hours, but on the other end of the spectrum you have people playing a single game for thousands to even tens of thousands of hours.

In addition, there are unlimited streaming services for games, one of which being Xbox Game Pass which is growing in popularity. Unfortunately it doesn't feel the same because how many games can one truly complete on a monthly basis?

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#353

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

It is possible that AR could become a useful product to literally every person. I'll be waiting as always.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#354
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. 56% of US households have at least one gaming console.

81% of Americans use a smart phone. Likely almost every house in the country contains one and usually many smartphones. Likely no consumer product will reach the success of the smartphone.

My bet is when someone makes a spoon that can reproduce any flavor. I think everyone will want that.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#355
post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's that people who work at giant companies suck at making games. I don't understand this statement. The Oculus store is open to developers and is filled with third party games. All of the games I personally play are not Oculus/Facebook games.

The store is available but its screening is a little strict (near to game console, rather than Play Store or Steam). Alternatively it seems that FB unofficially supports SideQuest.

> Alternatively it seems that FB unofficially supports SideQuest.

They're actually opening support for off-store apps [1], but with some limitations:

> Applications will have to meet the obligations of the Oculus Content Policy, but won’t be held to the same technical standards as official Oculus Store Apps.

[1] https://www.roadtovr.com/oculus-quest-distribution-non-store...

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#356

VR is like listening to music is surround sound: There's a small, dedicated market that will eat it up, but most people just don't care. I love listening to music in surround, but it requires time to fill a room with speakers placed just right. A few years ago I tried my friend's VR setup. He had to set up a room just right, and the space had to be completely empty or you'd smack into things. I even smacked into a wa…

> Even the economics of dedicating a large, empty space for VR means it's mostly for "rich" people. You could be middle class in the 'burbs and pull the car out of the garage to do VR... But what if you live in a tiny SF or NYC apartment? What about even denser living conditions outside of the US?

I get the complaints, and VR isn't really something that suits me as I get nausea really quick with headsets messing up my hearing somehow. I had this same effect when I took the train and had to face backwards to the direction the train was heading. It's really unpleasant and losses all novelty in about 10 minutes.

But, I have to ask: with the advent (or promise really) of 5G why wouldn't you take to being outdoors for a session of alien blasters VR instead of being suck inside? One of the cool things I think AR has over VR is that we saw how the Pokemon game fad got people who spend way too much time on their phones to go back outside with the right incentive (and putting aside the massive privacy intrusion it turned out to be) and being able to interact with their environment as part of the game quest. I can't see why a designated area in the park couldn't be allotted for that, and it would be cool as you could share it with younger kids who may not be able to afford or have access to the unit to ever try it and ultimately build community with other enthusiasts.

I saw that happen with some of the local kids with drones at my community park this year after seeing little to no kids the year earlier ever playing there. By the end of summer it looked they were all making videos or something together.

This is one of the cooler unintentional things that happened I was learning to fish out at the pier; the looks on some kids faces when something 'feels like a bite' is hilarious, and its pretty much Christmas if they ever catch anything even if its just bait fish.

There are Bitcoin meetups in VR happening right now, but to be honest I'd rather just go to the conference calls one where you can see a stream along with the attendees faces. Anything else seems off putting, but then I don't really get the appeal of something like second-life interactions with avatars.

I was re-watching season 3 of the Expanse, and that ship building puzzle in the train station on Mars with all of those kids assembling it looked like a really cool thing to have if we could work out the tech. Hacking culture can't be introduced early enough in my opinion.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#357
post #320
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> VR is already fun and we're in for a wild ride once AR hits the market. I, personally, see VR as being much more exciting than AR, from an entertainment and capabilities perspective. I don't want to be limited to my small living room or whatever setting I'm in. When I'm in the real world outside of my house, I can't imagine what AR would bring that wouldn't be completely utilitarian, like replacing my phone/watch w…

For a long time I've wanted VR-like games, but played in the freedom of AR, where it maps and adapts to your environment. This would allow you to actually move around and interact with your space. I briefly played the HoloLens AR game where you have to shoot at robotic bugs that crawl out from your walls.[1] The fact that I could duck behind my office partition was awesome. The fact that when I blew a hole in my wall…

Custom Home Mapper is a current Quest project in this vein. It’s VR rather than AR, you map out your whole area (with walls and furniture) and then play some mini-games in it.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#358

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

Gaming is a only small part of what VR can do.

Education (language learning, geography, biology, engineering...), real estate, porn, psychology, situational training (firemen), scientific visualization and collaboration, spatial painting and other artforms, social interaction, movie shots planning, etc.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#359

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

> let me tell you that this is an absolutely unstoppable evolution of computing. If that's the case, the sales are hardly convincing. If this was such a revolution you'd see more people buying them. Beyond head tracking and movement tracking, the fact that you cant feel anything (no feedback) in the world you are supposed to be in makes it illusion breaking.

He is saying it's inevitable, not that it's there yet.
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