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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#351

Post by werber »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

I know some lenders, specifically Ally, offer up to 4 months of deferment on auto loans right now

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#352

Post by inscionent »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #300
inscionent wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can print more money right. Money isn't real. Death and this virus are. How about we just take care of those who need taking care of during this disaster. How about we put all national efforts to keep the lights on, providing safe housing and keeping the food supply chains intact. Instead we are worried about corporate quarterly profits and when the Ruby Tuesday can reopen, because somehow serving burgers for $3/h…

In many parts of the world, what the original comment describes is simply a normal day; the only reason Americans typically do better than that is our strong economy. We know what economies without strong quarterly profits and Ruby Tuesday look like, and they don't support the modern American standard of living.

Now try to imagine an economy that values human capital over never end growth. We can do better, but it requires a different kind thinking.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#353

Post by lottin »

lisper wrote: post #150
xxpor wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation has only been on a downward trend since the early 80s, despite what everyone predicted when Nixon closed the gold window.

That's because the economy has grown more or less apace with the money supply (or, more accurately, because the Fed has controlled the growth of the money supply to keep pace with the economy). Now we are pumping cash into a shrinking economy. You can't do that for very long without producing inflation.

They may be pumping cash but it doesn't seem that this is resulting in more consumer demand, which is what would lead to price inflation.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#354

Post by rchaud »

gvhst wrote: post #215
aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

I missed pretty much the same amount of school during SARS in Hong Kong in 2003. This was before any sort of remote learning was possible, I didn’t do school work for pretty much a whole semester. I didn’t feel that this held me back at all, however there were a few key differences in my end: - I was in 4th grade where school was less rigorous - I went to a private international school - While my parents were busy wo…

If you went to a private intl school, I imagine the tuition wasn't cheap. That right there is the difference. When you're paying big bucks, your parents will want to do everything to make sure you don't fall behind. I assume with that kind of education you also went on to complete a university degree of some kind.

Contrast that to the public high school system in the US, where resources are lacking, and students may not even have the tools at home to follow through with remote learning, let alone hope to go to college, which is still 5 figures a year minimum.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#356

Post by lm28469 »

Tistron wrote: post #157
cpursley wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

In Scandinavia we've had some sort of pragmatic market socialism, not much central planning but reasonable redistribution in various ways. Seems to work fairly well, although large parts of it has been (and is being) dismantled by the liberals (those are the right here, not the left).

[flagged]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#357

Post by ceejayoz »

ramblerman wrote: post #326
ceejayoz wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a weird way of doing the numbers. If I get murdered in December, it's not super helpful to note that I was 92% alive on average that year.

Sometimes analogies are clever in that they simplify a concept, I'm not sure you got there. you are either dead or alive. Economic growth is a percentage.

The economy kinda died at the end of the quarter. Averaging in Jan/Feb's numbers don't reflect that well.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#358

Post by kec »

tmaly wrote: post #297
baron_harkonnen wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tech people will be hit much harder by this than they think. The STEM world is largely in denial because ultimately SV grew because of the last major recession. That won't be happening this time. Startups are having massive layoffs right now, and each week bring companies further and further down the chain lay people off. I strongly suspect we'll see more major layoffs next week. Most big tech companies are driven by…

Maybe Tech will in short term, but investors still will need to chaise yield in a zero interest rate environment. As soon as things pass, money should start to flow back into startups.

Funding doesn’t matter much if your customer base either doesn’t exist anymore (eg b2b sass companies trying to build a foothold via other startups) or has drastically shrunk (b2c companies targeting consumers with reduced buying power).

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#359

Post by xxpor »

lottin wrote: post #353
lisper wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because the economy has grown more or less apace with the money supply (or, more accurately, because the Fed has controlled the growth of the money supply to keep pace with the economy). Now we are pumping cash into a shrinking economy. You can't do that for very long without producing inflation.

They may be pumping cash but it doesn't seem that this is resulting in more consumer demand, which is what would lead to price inflation.

This is a good point. CPI is very good at missing the classes of products that have seen massive price increases: housing, education, and other large assets.

For everyone who will respond "oh but CPI has a housing component": https://slate.com/business/2014/02/housing-inflation-the-cpi...

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#360

Post by CodeMage »

logfromblammo wrote: post #279
CodeMage wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The bar (which is already dismally low) will have to be lowered further for them to graduate, and how/when will it ever be raised back again? You don't have to lower the bar. There are other options. There is no fundamental law of physics that says a generation has to graduate at age X, so we -- the society -- should be perfectly able to delay that process for a year, instead of lowering the bar. That said, there's…

The longer you delay graduation past the age of legal majority, the more students will drop out and [attempt to] enter the workforce. Not every kid is willing and able to live with their current parent or guardian after they are legally able to either move out on their own or be evicted. It's not a law of physics, but there are a lot of pitiable kids out there who have never even caught a whiff of good fortune in the…

> It's not a law of physics, but there are a lot of pitiable kids out there who have never even caught a whiff of good fortune in their lives, and the US lacks the social sensitivity to make them feel secure enough to add another year of high school to their pile of problems.

Yes, that's why there are "poor kids roaming the street like packs of feral dogs" in the first place, in one of the wealthiest countries in the world. That's the big problem.

So let's not pretend that lowering the bar is what's going to make those kids catch a whiff of good fortune. The US system grinds people like that into dirt and that won't change with a single decision, be that decision to add a school year or to lower the bar.

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