351–360 of 499 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. The people that got in in 2008 made out like bandits. The people that wait until 2010 or later missed out on a lot of the gains.
The people that bought right before the crash also made out like bandits. It’s impossible to time the market, just buy if you have money.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
people dying everywhere (which, with a hopeful 2% letality is still very likely) will also heavily disturb the peace as well as the economy. As long as we are not sure about basic things like that, I'm quite for a lockdown, because a 7% letality is still not off the table (with happy things like reinfection) - and this is basically about double the loss of life of WW2 (which at least had a clear winner, being able to…
It isn’t clear that the corona virus will have a noticeable effect on death rate in any specific city, region, or country. It would have to kill a lot more people before it even showed up in the statistics in a place like Wuhan that has gotten the brunt of it, I think.
To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…
>I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this point Recession yes, severe, maybe not. (thought I admit the possibility) I think if the current distancing measures curtail the spread, then by July (maybe sooner) things could begin to inch back upwards. Then it's a matter of how much the next flu season impacts things, but by that time we should also be within 6-8 months or so of a vaccine. Recession for th…
Businesses, big and small, are going to take a huge hit from this that will take a long time to recover from. Probably more than most (all?) of is have seen in our lifetime.
Seems like this is something we’ve never faced before, and it’s not that highly unlikely that we’ll see some pretty nasty and long-term impacts from this.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you think recession is guaranteed, why not sell?
That is opposite of what you should do. You would just be locking in losses (or greatly reduced profits). As long as you are reasonably sure you can hold your stocks for a few years then just hold on to them. Or better yet, go on buying spree and get cheap stocks.
Sure loss harvesting is nice but those credits still represent money lost, and said loss far exceeds any taxes on gains I'll be making for a while
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If one assumes that the market was a powder keg waiting for a spark to explode, it doesn’t matter when the virus part of the equation clears up
I'm hoping for post-pandemic exuberance to lead us out of the economic problems.
* I kid, I kid. Mostly...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sorry to single you out, but the fact that people still don't understand that a 1 month+ long lockdown is a certainty means we are nowhere near the bottom. By April the US is going to look a lot like where Italy is at now.
I think it's realistic that we could see some sort of easing within a month - like maybe restaurants and bars can reopen if they meet some stringent requirements. But would agree that it will be a long time before things return to "normal".
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do not buy and hold leveraged ETFs interday. Buy puts if you want.
Good advice, but the IV on most puts makes them incredibly expensive right now. I prefer shorting the 3x long etfs.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The whole debate is about being too married to stocks and ignoring the wide wide universe of markets and asset classes. To anyone else, recognize that the citizenry is not limited to being passively investing in stocks, yet many of them are when they shouldn't be. People in all the other markets say "buy the dip" arbitrarily too, and many of those markets are often inversely correlated to the stock market. So just re…
That's true but what's also true is that we found out in 2008 that there is much more correlation between asset classes than you might think.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not OP but I don't think we'll bounce back as quickly due to the lack of urgency coming from the Federal government. I suspect we'll fall into a vicious cycle of business layoffs, corresponding dip in consumer spending, reduction in r&d/business investment as we are now and after cases taper off which now seems even further away than what it could've been had the CDC/FDA/WH been on top of this earlier. Some countries…
What lack of urgency are you talking about?
I don't understand why people are catching a falling knife. It is as though they have never been in bear markets before. Understand the market psychology and don't waste your money. I have friends who DCA-ed and regret because it took them years just to breakeven. In a standard fear cycle (Google it), we are only at the middle stage between denial and fear. There is an acceleration downwards that we have not experien…
If you haven't done this then you really shouldn't give authoritative-sounding advice here.