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Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

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201–210 of 499 posts

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#201

I'm quite surprised by this because it was my understanding that companies were doing us a favor by employing most people. That they were forestalling replacing us with robots by paying us near subsistence wages. I'm very confused. On the one hand I have all the things I've been reading in the papers about workers being superfluous. But yet on the other hand when I just look at the evidence, it seems like companies r…

Companies need consumers more than they need workers.

I have that sorted: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22597679

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#202
Something to consider for people thinking of jumping into the market via an index fund; in 2008, corporations were in OK shape to weather a downturn. In 2020, a lot of corps are very highly levreged. I think it's likely we'll see a lot of shareholder wipeouts. This will have an interesting effect if you buy an ETF. If 50% of your stocks get wiped out... that big bounce you might expect won't be in your portfolio. Yes, the index will recover it's value... but the composition of pre-post shareholders will be different.

I don't think the country is in the mood for shareholders to get bailed out unless individuals get bailed out first... and I don't see that happening.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#204

I'm a bit more optimistic about this crash - a significant portion is due to the (important) constraints on society - closing schools and restaurants. Meaning we can look forward to some pent up demand on the other side when those constraints are loosened. On the other hand, if the US goes into lockdown for a month or more, there's a significant chance that we could be returning to a world very unlike today. The mark…

Sorry to single you out, but the fact that people still don't understand that a 1 month+ long lockdown is a certainty means we are nowhere near the bottom. By April the US is going to look a lot like where Italy is at now.

I think it's realistic that we could see some sort of easing within a month - like maybe restaurants and bars can reopen if they meet some stringent requirements. But would agree that it will be a long time before things return to "normal".

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#205
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think recession is guaranteed, why not sell?

That is opposite of what you should do. You would just be locking in losses (or greatly reduced profits). As long as you are reasonably sure you can hold your stocks for a few years then just hold on to them. Or better yet, go on buying spree and get cheap stocks.

The whole debate is about being too married to stocks and ignoring the wide wide universe of markets and asset classes.

To anyone else, recognize that the citizenry is not limited to being passively investing in stocks, yet many of them are when they shouldn't be.

People in all the other markets say "buy the dip" arbitrarily too, and many of those markets are often inversely correlated to the stock market. So just repeating what your favorite investment guru once said does not give you any more insight than the next person.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#206
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think recession is guaranteed, why not sell?

That is opposite of what you should do. You would just be locking in losses (or greatly reduced profits). As long as you are reasonably sure you can hold your stocks for a few years then just hold on to them. Or better yet, go on buying spree and get cheap stocks.

> As long as you are reasonably sure you can hold your stocks for a few years then just hold on to them.

What's 'a few years' mean to you? The Nikkei hit its high of 40K around 1989-89 and hasn't traded above 80% of that in the 30 years since.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#207
post #47

I’m buying S&P index every day at this point, trying to drive my average down without trying to find the bottom. ...with that being said, I feel really worried about American economic stability long term now. Governors are closing restaurants and businesses leaving tons of folks out of work while providing minimal safety net coverage. Even liberal states like New York are ignoring the downstream economic effects thes…

Absolutely. I'm 21 -- I have 30 to 40 years to weather this storm. For people of similar age, you could not ask for a shallower entry into the market, albeit a tumultuous one.

29 here

Entered the workforce right after 2007, in my 16, after moving to Singapore from small town Russia as an exchange student. Financial fortunes of my patents went nowhere, and I had to keep myself afloat for pretty much 2.5 years.

Made not so bad money selling low end electronics to the third world on Alibaba, and such.

Then, my parents made me dump all my money on the best things since sliced bread: "Business Education" in Canada. So I will "never ever be in need, and be making money like those big men from America"

Wasted 3 years of my life on that, it was useless.

And in 2014, they made me buy an apartment in my hometown under an immense pressure, and "or else" threats for me "not having a chance getting a wife, without one"

A month later, the Russian roubles folds, property prices collapse. And I just parted with $78k USD, having just a few months of savings left, while my job in Canada was burning.

Somehow, I recovered. 5 months later I got $29k back to Canada. Life was good again, I got my first Canadian girlfriend.

Then at the end of 2015, when I just began making big plans for my life again, my troubles began to mount again... It was found out that my last employer in Canada was for some reason unable to secure LMIA after applying for it for 3 times in a row.

I tried every option to extend my stay in the country, but the government was hellbent on reducing the amount of work permit holders, closing every legal workaround for extension. I spent tons of moneys on immigration lawyers, without avail.

I decided to cut my loss short, and leave in 2016.

Having to leave Canada after 6 years, leaving a lot of money there, and almost getting a family, was a bitter, bitter loss. I was enraged for month.

After leaving 10 years abroad, I was completely unable to fit in Russian society of the day, and got robbed just weeks after arriving.

After doing few remote gigs, and throwing tons of money left and right to sweeten my grief, I got to think of going to China, a country whose manufacturing Industry I owe most of the money I earned in my career.

Been working in China since 2016

Ironically, the most normal part of my life began in the least normal country of them all.

My last relationship was a beautiful 29 years old self made entrepreneur, and an owner of a chemical factory. I dated her for a while, but had to leave for a series of extended assignments abroad. After returning just 10 month later, I found her already engaged to somebody more enterprising than me :(

Again, fortunes cut short just few centimetres away from the finish line. This bittersweet life.

Now, when China is descending into mass madness again, I am risking to loose everything again.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#208
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've relaxed the no-liquids rule now! for hand sanitizer only.

Or at least, things claiming to be hand sanitizer. Which just makes the rule more absurd. If you've got a favorite shampoo, time to go looking for a nice large hand sanitizer bottle to transfer it to. (Though I wouldn't do that for contact lens saline, a thing I'd kinda like to bring on in large bottles, since the small ones are absurdly expensive and somewhat less available.)

They technically allow large bottles of contact solution in carry-on because it's a medical necessity (https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/whatcanibring/...). I just keep it in my toiletries bag and they pull it out to run a quick test most of the time.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#209

To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…

In 08/09 the market felt this bad, and ended up worse. S&P went from 1576 to 666 iirc. That's almost 60% down. We are only about 30% down now.
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