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“I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

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Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#351

Post by Sammi »

keiferski wrote: post #127
lifeisstillgood wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it needs to be based on good science. As someone in thread said, the false positive rate needs to be staggeringly low. And the false positive for Testosterone -> AntiSocial behaviour is huge - marathon runners to entrepreneurs and weight lifters. So the idea is good - test people for something bad they will do - but the ability to test reliably for all the bad things is real low. I think we shall just stick to pa…

I don't think it is a good idea or good tool at all. I don't need or want some external authority to tell me if I'm allowed to leave my house. I used the example of "Anti Social" behavior as a joke and I thought that was obvious...but apparently not. The idea is entirely antithetical to a free society. As someone indicated in another comment, the proper way to do this is through personalized incentives and social enc…

There are already a bunch of things you are not allowed to do in a free and democratic society if it is unsafe for other people if you do it.

If there exists a home test that can test you for dangerous infectious diseases, and you are forced to take that in the morning before you go out, then this is comparable to not being allowed to drive while under the influence.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#352

Post by notacoward »

0-_-0 wrote: post #337

> How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). Could this mean that covid-19 is here to stay? Is it the new common cold, but more serious?

That's the outcome that worries me. Continual reinfection plus disproportionate effect on certain groups means we're going to have a lot fewer people in those groups unless we develop and deploy a vaccine in less time than seems likely. We're also going to have a lot more people with permanent lung scarring from "moderate" cases. Will that cause society to collapse? Of course not. We'll adapt, but it's still pretty horrible to contemplate.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#353

Post by cbHXBY1D »

9nGQluzmnq3M wrote: post #22
rapsey wrote: post #3

Is covid-19 the biggest world event since WW2?

Depends how you measure and what you call a "world event". * Mao Zedong killed 40 to 80 million people during his rule after WW2, but "only" in China. * 2-5 million died in the Second Congo Civil War between 1998-2003, but to a first approximation only Congo and its immediate neighbors even noticed. * The US response to 9/11 killed around 500,000 people directly (war violence) and a lot more indirectly (health, econo…

> Mao Zedong killed 40 to 80 million people during his rule after WW2, but "only" in China.

40 to 80 million is absurdly large and just as fictitious as the numbers pushed in the "black book of communism".

This is a good article which dissects those numbers: https://monthlyreview.org/commentary/did-mao-really-kill-mil...

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#354

Post by kortilla »

scotty79 wrote: post #217
yiyus wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many people who enjoy producing "silly products and services". Eg: many people who are left at home spending time doing what they enjoy will make beer or wine. Some of these beers and wines will be excellent, people will like them, and they will want to pay for them. I understand the motivations for what you propose, but I do not see how it would work in practice before going into full-authoritarian mode.

That's all fine. The problem is when industry does that.

That is industry. There’s no difference between industry and people doing stuff.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#355

Post by shalmanese »

notacoward wrote: post #253
mcsb4 wrote: post #85

I don't understand why we are not trying to interrupt the transmission vectors with masks and hand sanitizer like the Chinese do. They ramped the daily production from 10M to 100M and even advised the use of make-shift masks. The reaction in the west: masks are not protecting 100% and also we don't have any and we are too lazy to produce them, although they are much cheaper than the economic impact covid-19 has. 1. y…

I love how everyone wants to talk about masks and hand sanitizer, but not about gloves or good old soap and water. To me, it's a sign of wanting to score internet points more than to actually inform. The best information I've seen so far suggests that SARS-CoV-2 can survive 2-3 hours as aerosol, 2-3 days on some surfaces. You're much more likely to be exposed or to expose others by touching something than by walking…

Hubei mandated that anyone who was outdoors wears a mask. They didn't mandate that anyone who was outdoors wears gloves.

Disposable latex gloves are cheaper and easier to access in China than masks and yet China prioritized masks.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#356

Post by shalmanese »

panarky wrote: post #330
mcsb4 wrote: post #85

I don't understand why we are not trying to interrupt the transmission vectors with masks and hand sanitizer like the Chinese do. They ramped the daily production from 10M to 100M and even advised the use of make-shift masks. The reaction in the west: masks are not protecting 100% and also we don't have any and we are too lazy to produce them, although they are much cheaper than the economic impact covid-19 has. 1. y…

It helps to understand the relative sizes of the particles masks are expected to filter from the air. A coronavirus is about 0.1 µm while surgical masks start to become effective at around 200 µm and up. So a coronavirus is about 2000 times smaller than what a surgical mask can filter. I imagine a chain link fence which is pretty effective at stopping basketballs. A pollen spore is about 2000 times smaller than a bas…

Near universal masking reduced the rate of all infectious diseases, including influenza down to near zero. The size of the virus is irrelevant, it's the size of the carrier medium which is droplets that are very effective at being caught in masks.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#357

Post by shalmanese »

MisterTea wrote: post #321
pas wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A scarf (and other soft cloths) sounds problematic, because it traps droplets and then gives them more time to get into your airways. Though it probably helps with someone coughing at you directly. (But you have to instantly remove the scarf, and should wear glasses too, and then remove that too, and then wash your face, then the glasses and then the scarf.)

The surgical masks are disposable which I get but worst case wash your makeshift mask or carry multiple and keep them segregated in bags. It's not as easy as tossing a surgical mask but a viable alternative in a pinch. And a further thought, I wonder how many surgical masks we'll find floating in the great garbage patch in the next few years. At my work they also threw out all the plastic cutlery so assuming there is…

Viruses, unlike bacteria can't survive outside of a living host. Thus, they can only decrease over time on an inanimate object. This means if you have ~10 - 20 disposable surgical masks you can reuse them until they're disintegrated. Simply adopt a First In Last Out protocol to maximize the days between reuse. The longest we've seen the literature indicate the virus survives on a surface is 3 days and viral loads decrease at an exponential rate so at 6 days, you're >99.99% safe, at 9 days, you're >99.9999% safe etc. Distributing 20 - 30 disposable masks to every American is not outside of logistical possibility.

Just make sure you wash and dry the mask as soon as it's off your face so bacterial colonies don't have time to multiply.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#358

Post by blueblimp »

closeparen wrote: post #345
blueblimp wrote: post #184

There absolutely is an acceptable way out of this. China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, at least, are going to be just fine. They are focused on suppressing and controlling the virus. Once they get few enough imports from travel (presumably by restricting travel from countries where the virus is uncontrolled) and eliminate local transmission, they can resume life-as-usual, apart from being on high alert for impo…

You can have as many nines of reduction as you want; they are all worthless the moment the social graph reconnects. I'm skeptical that "life-as-usual" is a serious possibility.

If the reduction is maintained until there are no infectious cases (and any virus outside bodies has either been sanitized or died on its own) then you can reconnect the social graph and the virus will not re-emerge. It's not magic after all: the physical virus has to actually be present to restart the outbreak.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#359

Post by closeparen »

blueblimp wrote: post #358
closeparen wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have as many nines of reduction as you want; they are all worthless the moment the social graph reconnects. I'm skeptical that "life-as-usual" is a serious possibility.

If the reduction is maintained until there are no infectious cases (and any virus outside bodies has either been sanitized or died on its own) then you can reconnect the social graph and the virus will not re-emerge. It's not magic after all: the physical virus has to actually be present to restart the outbreak.

Sure, but the whole thing can start again from any amount of virus.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#360

Post by notacoward »

shalmanese wrote: post #355
notacoward wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how everyone wants to talk about masks and hand sanitizer, but not about gloves or good old soap and water. To me, it's a sign of wanting to score internet points more than to actually inform. The best information I've seen so far suggests that SARS-CoV-2 can survive 2-3 hours as aerosol, 2-3 days on some surfaces. You're much more likely to be exposed or to expose others by touching something than by walking…

Hubei mandated that anyone who was outdoors wears a mask. They didn't mandate that anyone who was outdoors wears gloves. Disposable latex gloves are cheaper and easier to access in China than masks and yet China prioritized masks.

It's not either/or. They're complementary, and in a situation of adequate supply for the anticipated demand it would be wise to use both. What I'm objecting to is the fact that people only talk about masks, dismissing with extreme prejudice and hostility any concerns about either effectiveness or supply. Then some of them turn right around and make up objections to glove use. The fact is that no one thing by itself will save us. We need to use all the tools at our disposal, not fixate on one and ignore others.
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