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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#341

Post by dzhiurgis »

epolanski wrote: post #255
hmry wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?

I've seen contracts on whether California will burn this summer. Any bum defending these contracts is to me either a shill or way too dumb to understand the concept of incentives. Oh and there was an Israeli journalist that got life threats because he reported that an Iranian missile struck some place in Israel, and apparently there was a huge bet on it on polymarket.

Funny how average HNer is opposing Flock cameras that solve real crimes by covering it up as a "freedom" yet completely fine regulating contracts with hypothetical incentives.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#342

Post by dzhiurgis »

throwawa1 wrote: post #31

When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.

> I'm all for banning these evil sites

Fortunately we have big beautiful crypto that separates us.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#343

Post by fer »

Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #321
officialchicken wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except, gambling isn't illegal here - in fact, it's very common. There are lots of casinos within a few mins walk in any city in Spain. All the prediction markets need to do is comply with existing laws.

What? Maybe you visited a particularly casino-heavy area, but in general there aren't many casinos in Spain. In many regions (e.g. mine) they're restricted to one per province. My city (250K population in the core, metropolitan area about 500K) has one. Madrid (6M metropolitan area) has four, Barcelona (5M) has one. Sports betting places on the other hand have multiplied like fungi in the last two decades, unfortunat…

[dead]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#344

Post by fer »

warkdarrior wrote: post #124
gventura18 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it bad to take out a life insurance policy right before you have a medical procedure?

Not if it's your own procedure. If it is someone else's? Bad, because I'll just take a life insurance on them and then promise the doctor half of the proceeds if they ensure that the outcome of the procedure leads to an insurance payout.

But killing someone is a crime, and fraud is a crime, the insurance in itself isn't.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#345

Post by dzhiurgis »

ifdefdebug wrote: post #140
throwawa1 wrote: post #31

When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.

well I see more problematic the people actually doing the Iran attacks and murder of heads of state. Betting on those is distasteful, but doing those things is where the damage lies.

[flagged]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#346

Post by emptyfile »

everdrive wrote: post #41

I don't usually see advertisements, but I was in a position recently to see a real-life television stream, and I was quite surprised to see them run an advertisement for Kalshi. I was pretty surprised that something like this would be advertised to normal people. I'd half expect the next ad to be for a hitman, or for beating your wife, or something. Seems crazy that this is tolerated whatsoever.

[dead]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#347

Post by dzhiurgis »

hackyhacky wrote: post #276
stackedinserter wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Which is more likely: CNN commits murder to increase viewership; or any one of billions of people commits murder to win a bet?

Funny how people take journalists as some sort of most moral form of human being. Meanwhile they are most likely to take bribes for editorializing, silencing, ads or completely making up stories. All while they are most likely to get earliest information on markets ergo most likely to rig markets themselves.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#348

Post by iamalizard »

jmyeet wrote: post #88
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

I would go further than this: all forms of online gambling should be banned, globally. It's probably sufficient to remove them from app stores and to remove their access to the international financial system, which is very doable. The astute observer might say "ah but what about crypto gambling sites like Stake?". This problem isn't as intractable as crypto bros might have you believe. You simply issue arrest warrant…

I strongly disagree and think all forms of gambling should be legal.

Sadly, from my point of view, you're right that right now going after the on/off crypto ramps would be enough to dissuade most people from using crypto gambling sites. I hope for a more educated populace that can bypass these laws and engage in whatever consensual activities they want to, as long as they're not directly harming anyone.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#349

Post by [deleted] »

abustamam wrote: post #293
burkaman wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of these "politican out" markets will resolve to true if the politician dies: https://polymarket.com/predictions/out . The language is usually "This market will resolve to “Yes” if ceases to be ". Or for another example: https://polymarket.com/event/will-neymar-play-in-the-2026-fi... . Will Neymar play in the world cup? Not if he's dead. Any kind of "will celebrity appear in X in the future" can be reduced to an…

Kalshi supposedly does not pay out if a death is involved https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 Not sure if Polymarket does the same. Also not sure if I really trust these people to be the arbiter of morality and adhere to their own rules when it doesn't benefit them.

[deleted]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#350

Post by burkaman »

abustamam wrote: post #293
burkaman wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of these "politican out" markets will resolve to true if the politician dies: https://polymarket.com/predictions/out . The language is usually "This market will resolve to “Yes” if ceases to be ". Or for another example: https://polymarket.com/event/will-neymar-play-in-the-2026-fi... . Will Neymar play in the world cup? Not if he's dead. Any kind of "will celebrity appear in X in the future" can be reduced to an…

Kalshi supposedly does not pay out if a death is involved https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 Not sure if Polymarket does the same. Also not sure if I really trust these people to be the arbiter of morality and adhere to their own rules when it doesn't benefit them.

I can't find any evidence that Polymarket has a rule like this, and they have paid out for assassinations in the past: https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-...
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