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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#321

Post by Al-Khwarizmi »

officialchicken wrote: post #135
littlecranky67 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The genie is out of the bottle. Crypto-only underground prediction markets will always exist. I think it is better to heavily regulate legal options instead of pushing them underground. That didnt work for drugs or prostitution, and it wont work for gambling.

Except, gambling isn't illegal here - in fact, it's very common. There are lots of casinos within a few mins walk in any city in Spain. All the prediction markets need to do is comply with existing laws.

What? Maybe you visited a particularly casino-heavy area, but in general there aren't many casinos in Spain. In many regions (e.g. mine) they're restricted to one per province. My city (250K population in the core, metropolitan area about 500K) has one. Madrid (6M metropolitan area) has four, Barcelona (5M) has one.

Sports betting places on the other hand have multiplied like fungi in the last two decades, unfortunately.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#322

Post by bluGill »

saltyoldman wrote: post #236
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Can someone give a more concrete example around all this? How do I cause someone to die using Kalshi or Polymarket, specifically, also without being caught? Didn't they catch someone that had pre-knowledge of the Venezuela campaign? (I'm not asking because I want to do this, I'm asking because it's not clear to me how this is realistically possible.) Also, given that you can't just create a market on either platform,…

The problem is if you are a criminal you need to cover your tracks and your client tracks. Someone can meet with an assassin to kill so and so on a street corner. However how do you get a large amount of cash to the assassin if they pull the murder off. Large amounts of cash are too often tracked, and most other electronic payments are as well. Bitcoin has a public ledger that is not as anonymous as advocates like to claim (and the police are presumably getting better at understanding it)

I don't know if a contract is a good way, but it gives some deniability.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#323

Post by sebastiennight »

Eduard wrote: post #316
mschuster91 wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoever did that deserves a few years in prison. Normally I'm not too much of a friend of draconian BS - but accurate reports of temperature, air pressure and wind speed are incredibly important for the safety of air travel. It's bad enough when such systems fail due to whatever sort of issue, but the last thing aviation needs is people intentionally blowing holes into the swiss cheese security model -.-

Also bad if such crucial information is based on a single sensor with barely any physical security

This logic is how we ended up with TSA.

"What do you mean, people used to just walk up to planes with their shoes on and a FULL 8-ounce water bottle in hand with barely any physical security?"

It's easier to stop incentivizing people to ruin the commons, vs. trying to strengthen the commons against all possible adversarial behavior.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#324

Post by XorNot »

embedding-shape wrote: post #300
saltyoldman wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can someone give a more concrete example around all this? How do I cause someone to die using Kalshi or Polymarket, specifically, also without being caught? Didn't they catch someone that had pre-knowledge of the Venezuela campaign? (I'm not asking because I want to do this, I'm asking because it's not clear to me how this is realistically possible.) Also, given that you can't just create a market on either platform,…

> How do I cause someone to die using Kalshi or Polymarket, specifically, also without being caught? Assuming you get away with the murder, guessing that's not the part you're asking about, a concrete example: https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-electi... , bunch of people on that list, surely many of them are like the typical European politician, mostly without assassination protection most of the…

Its just stochastic terrorism is the thing. Betting markets on a a negative outcome are ginning up a big "you could make money if the bad thing actually happens" and over enough scale you'll get that idea into the head of someone who concludes they should try and make it happen.

This is the same reason it is generally illegal to make public statements lamenting that someone hasn't killed a person.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Will_no_one_rid_me_of_this_tur...

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#325

Post by dawah45 »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

[dead]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#326

Post by thesimon »

abustamam wrote: post #293
burkaman wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of these "politican out" markets will resolve to true if the politician dies: https://polymarket.com/predictions/out . The language is usually "This market will resolve to “Yes” if ceases to be ". Or for another example: https://polymarket.com/event/will-neymar-play-in-the-2026-fi... . Will Neymar play in the world cup? Not if he's dead. Any kind of "will celebrity appear in X in the future" can be reduced to an…

Kalshi supposedly does not pay out if a death is involved https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 Not sure if Polymarket does the same. Also not sure if I really trust these people to be the arbiter of morality and adhere to their own rules when it doesn't benefit them.

Yeah, Kalshi can't pay. 17 CFR § 40.11

> A registered entity shall not list for trading or accept for clearing on or through the registered entity any of the following:

> (1) An agreement, contract, transaction, or swap based upon an excluded commodity, as defined in Section 1a(19)(iv) of the Act, that *involves*, relates to, or references terrorism, *assassination*, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any State or Federal law.

Polymarket doesn't seem to care too much.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#328

Post by kube-system »

philipallstar wrote: post #274
josefritzishere wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That "facilitating" argument didn't work out for Silk Road.

Because what the Silk Road did was illegal whether in person or not.

What Polymarket and Kalshi are doing is also illegal in many places.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#329

Post by bluGill »

expedition32 wrote: post #171
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Unfortunately there are ways for people to spend money on these sites. That's why the Netherlands has legalised gambling because the bad websites couldn't be stopped.

They are easy to stop - follow the money. A few sting operations where you lose a bet and then the courts agree to enforce your reverse change and they will shut most of this down. Bitcoin payments are a little harder to shutdown, but the friction makes it much harder.

You can also follow people. Tax fraud is how a lot of criminals are caught - we don't know what you did but we can prove you didn't get the money legally and that is enough.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#330

Post by thesimon »

everdrive wrote: post #41

I don't usually see advertisements, but I was in a position recently to see a real-life television stream, and I was quite surprised to see them run an advertisement for Kalshi. I was pretty surprised that something like this would be advertised to normal people. I'd half expect the next ad to be for a hitman, or for beating your wife, or something. Seems crazy that this is tolerated whatsoever.

It is mostly just sports betting

https://closingline.substack.com/p/the-takeaway-kalshi-non-s...

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