US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire • Hacker News Board

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#341

Post by goatlover » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:04 AM UTC

cmilton wrote: post #206

mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

It all sounds great. Which government? Is it a different regime? If not, why would the US concede?

Because the escalation Trump was talking about would have wrecked the ME with Iran's retaliation on desalination plants, oil infrastructure, power plants, etc. Which would have been a massive shock to the global economy, along with a large humanitarian crisis inside of Iran and it's neighbors.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#342

Post by ericmay » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:04 AM UTC

smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Aloisius wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#343

Post by computerex » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC

ferongr wrote: post #327

ceejayoz wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel seems likely to do anything they can to start things up again.

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Being anti Zionist is the only moral position.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#344

Post by goatlover » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC

petcat wrote: post #215

mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

They also got to keep their new Ayatollah and continue with their religious government. An escalation of the war would have certainly ended with a complete regime change. Which would have been very expensive in life (Iranians) and money (Americans).

A complete regime change would probably only come with a large scale invasion, bigger than Iraq's. A huge majority of Americans don't want that.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#345

Post by hirako2000 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC

sosomoxie wrote: post #292

icegreentea2 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one has agreed to the Iran's 10 point plan, and they're not going to get all of it. The provisional ceasefire actually goes against the Iranian proposition. Point 2 explicitly is "permanent end to the war, not a ceasefire". Iran backed down a bit here from their maximalist aims (which is what the 10 point is).

Trump literally said he would bomb them to the stone age. It doesn’t get more maximalist than that and it was the US that backed down.

A ceasefire agreement isn't an end of war agreement.

Typically that means backing down on objectives/demands otherwise that would be the end of it.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#346

Post by ceejayoz » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:06 AM UTC

ferongr wrote: post #327

ceejayoz wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel seems likely to do anything they can to start things up again.

[flagged]

They don’t seem to agree

https://x.com/AP/status/2041689524955222201

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#347

Post by smallmancontrov » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:06 AM UTC

pclmulqdq wrote: post #336

smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

$2M/ship is $1/barrel for VLCCs, but it's a lot more for smaller ships. Practically, nobody will use a ship smaller than a VLCC with the toolbooth.

VLCCs are already 2/3 the oil traffic, but yeah, rough day to be a small ship with cheap cargo.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#348

Post by smallmancontrov » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:07 AM UTC

ericmay wrote: post #342

smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

[flagged]

[flagged]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#349

Post by m0llusk » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:07 AM UTC

kumarvvr wrote: post #312

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

I think the nature of war has changed. A slow moving swarm of drones, will keep large Aircraft carriers well outside the range of their fighter jets. A nation can swarm an aircraft carrier with a 1000 drones, each costing about 40k USD. Only a few are needed to seriously damage the carrier. Not to mention ballistic missiles. In this scenario, does a US massive, slow moving aircraft carrier possibly carrying hundreds…

No need to swarm the carriers. Support craft are far more vulnerable, absolutely required, and low in numbers at this time.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#350

Post by booleandilemma » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 2:07 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

1) Trump threatens stone age for Iran if they don't open the strait.

2) Iran agrees to open the strait if they're not attacked.

What happened here is they caved under Trump's threat but they're going to make it look like they're opening the strait on their terms, while Trump will make it look like they're opening the strait on his terms (which actually makes more sense, because if they didn't open the strait we'd have probably started bombing them)

And Iran's military hasn't been destroyed, they still control the strait. How do you explain that if they don't have a military?