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The RAM shortage comes for us all

jeffgeerling.com

341–350 of 416 posts

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#341
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hear me out- artisanal DRAM.

Every transistor carefully hand-wired with love, giving each bit its own individual characteristic, for more organic, natural data.

This existed and it was called LOL memory (little old lady memory). It was knitted by little old ladies, being careful of which wires passed through which cores of course. It was ROM, not RAM.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#343
post #235
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like the Silver Thursday all over again. I hope OpenAI ends up like the Hunt Btothers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

> To save the situation, a consortium of US banks provided a $1.1 billion line of credit to the brothers which allowed them to pay Bache which, in turn, survived the ordeal. It seems once you amass a certain amount of wealth, you just get automatically bailed out from your mistakes

The article goes on to say that they had $5B net wealth around the time of the incident. It's not that unreasonable to get a loan of 20% of your wealth in a hurry, especially if said loan immediately benefits the lenders.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#344
post #287
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently trying to source a large amount of DDR4 to upgrade a 3 year old fleet of servers at a very unfortunate time. It's very difficult to source in quantity, and is going up in price more or less daily at this point. Vendor quotes are good for hours, not days when you can find it.

Have you considered dropping by in person to your nearest computer recycler/refurbisher? As a teen I worked at one, and the boxes and boxes of RAM sticks pulled from scrapped machines (usually scrapped due to bad main boards) made a strong impression. They tend to not even put the highest-spec stuff they pull into anything, as refurbished machines are mostly sold/donated in quantity (to schools and the like) and big…

> at these places are often invited to build personal machines to take home out of these “too good” parts — and yet there’s so much that they can’t possibly use it all up that way.

I work in the refurb division of an e-waste recycling company. Those days are over for now. We're listing RAM that will sell for more than scrap value (about $2 per stick), which is at least 4 GB DDR3. And we got a list of people who will buy all we got.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't you use DDR3 in DDR5 compatible board?

Unfortunately not, each version of RAM uses a different physical slot.

Well, they're entirely different, not just slot. Intel 12th/13th/14th gens all support DDR4 or DDR5. However, the motherboards you buy can only support one or the other. I don't think there are a single AMD CPU that supports both?

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#347
post #50

I know this is mostly paranoid thinking on my behalf, but it almost feels like this is a conscious effort to attempt to destroy "personal" computing. I've been a huge advocate for local, open, generative AI as the best resistance to massive take-over by large corporations controlling all of this content creation. But even as it is (or "was" I should say), running decent models at home is prohibitively expensive for m…

The first "proper" "modern" computer I had, initially came with 8 megabytes of RAM. It's not a lot, but it's enough for a dumb terminal.

My first one- a Gateway 486/66- started with 4MB RAM (in 1993). It could run linux, X windows, emacs, and G++ in a terminal all at the same time, but paged so badly the machine was unusable during a compile. I spent $200 to double it to 8, then another $200 to double it to 16, then another $200 to double it to 32MB (over a couple years), at which point, the machine absolutely flew (no paging during compiles). It seemed like an obscene amount of money for a college student to spend, but the lesson taught me a lot about computer performance and what to upgrade.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#348
post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RIP electron apps and PWAs. Need to go native, as chromium based stuff is so memory hungry. PWAs on Safari use way less memory, but PWA support in Safari is not great.

I, for one, would not miss a single one of the electron apps I'm forced to use. Every single one of them makes me feel like the vendor is telling me "we can't be bothered employing half decent developers or giving the developers we have enough time and resources to write decent software, so we're just going to use cheap and inexperience web developers and burn another gigabyte or two of your memory to run what could…

Apps can't be 100MB on modern displays, because there are literally too many pixels involved.

Not that I know what's going on in an Electron app heap (because there's no inspection tools afaik), but I'm guessing much of it is compiled code and the rest is images and text layout related.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#349
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who knows next to nothing about this space, why can China not build their own machines? Is ASML the only company making those machines? If so, why? Is it a matter of patents, or is the knowledge required for this so specialized only they've built it up?

Designing such an advanced lithography machine is probably a Manhattan Project scale task. China is indeed trying to make progress and they will probably get there someday but for now ASML is the only company in the world that knows how to build these or anything remotely close.

ASML is not the only sole supplier involved. There's a few more layers of them you have to replace.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#350
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 100.000 writes per bit per cell* Also, that SSD example is wildly untrue. Especially with the context of available capacity at the time. You CAN get modern SSD's with mind boggling write endurance per cell, AND has multides more cells, resulting in vastly more durable media than what was available pre 2015. The one caveat there to modern stuff being better than older stuff is Optane (the enterprise stuff like the 9…

Maybe but in my experience a good old 100GB from 2014+ in longevity. Some say they have the opposite experience, mine is ONLY Intel drives, maybe that is why. X25-E is the diamond peak of SSDs probably forever since the machines to make 45nm SLC are gone.

Which tells me your experience is incredibly limited.

Intel was very good, and when they partnered with Micron, made objectively the best SSD's ever made (3DXPoint Optanes). I lament that they sold their storage business unit, though of all the potential buyers, SK was probably the best case scenario (they since rebranded that into Solidigm).

The intel X25-E was a great drive, but it is not great by modern standards and in any write-focused workload it is an objectively, provably bad drive by any standard these days. Let's compare it to a Samsung 9100 Pro 8TB which is a premium consumer drive, and a quasi mid level enterprise drive (depends on usecase, it's lacking a lot of important enterprise features such as PLP) that's still a far cry from the cream of the crop, but has an MSRP comparable to the X25-E's at launch

X25-E 64GB vs 9100 Pro 8TB:

MSRP: ~$900 ($14/GB) vs ~$900 ($0.11/GB)

Random Read (IOPS): 35.0k vs 2,200k

Random Write (IOPS): 3.3k vs 2,600k

Sustained/Seq Read (MBps): 250 vs 14,800

Sustained/Seq Write (MBps): 170 vs 13,400

Endurance: >=2PB writes vs >= 4.8 PB writes

In other words, it loses very badly in every metric, including performance and endurance per dollar (in fact, it loses so bad on performance that it still isn't close even if we assume the X25-E is only $50), and we're not even into the high end of what's possible with SSD's/NAND flash today. Hell, the X25-E can't even compare to a Crucial MX500 SATA SSD except on endurance which it only barely beats (2PB for X25-E vs 1.4PB for 4TB). The X25-E's incredibly limited capacity (64GB max) also makes it a non-starter for many people no matter how good the performance might be (but isn't).

Yes, per cell the X25-E is far more durable than a MX500 or 9100 Pro yielding a Disk Write Per Day endurance of about 17DWPD, which is very good. An Intel P4800X however (almost a 10 year old drive itself) had 60DWPD, or more than 3x the endurance when normalized for Capacity, while also blowing it - and nearly every other SSD ever made until very very recently - out of the water on the performance front as well. And let's not forget, not only can you supplement per-cell endurance with having more cells (aka more capacity), but the X25-E's maximum capacity of 64GB makes it a non-starter for the vast majority of use-cases right out of the gate, even if you try to stack them in an array.

For truly high end drives, look at what the Intel P5800X, Micron 9650 MAX, or Solidigm D7-5810 are capable of for example.

Oh, and btw, a lot of those high end drives have SLC as their Transition Flash Layer, sometimes in capacities greater than the X25-E was available in. So the assertion that they don't make SLC isn't true either, we just got better about designing these devices so that we aren't paying over $10/GB anymore.

So no. By todays standards the X25-E is not "the diamond peak". It's the bottom of the barrel and in most cases, non-viable.

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