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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

dwarkesh.com

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#341

Post by simonsarris »

plaidfuji wrote: post #129
jb1991 wrote: post #58

I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.

Should probably just short nvidia

There is a wide space where LLMs and their offshoots make enormous productivity gains, while looking nothing like actual artificial intelligence (which has been rebranded AGI), and Nvidia turns out to have a justified valuation etc.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#342

Post by dist-epoch »

ActorNightly wrote: post #135

Not a decade. More like a century, and that is if society figures itself out enough to do some engineering on a planetary scale, and quantum computing is viable. Fundamentally, AGI requires 2 things. First it needs to be able to operate without information, learning as it goes. The core kernel should be such that it doesn't have any sort of training on real world concepts, only general language parsing that it can us…

AIs already fake-simulate the weather (chaotic system) using 1% of the resources used by the real-simulating supercomputers.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#343

Post by Etheryte »

plaidfuji wrote: post #129
jb1991 wrote: post #58

I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.

Should probably just short nvidia

You can generally buy options only a few years out. A few years is decidedly shorter than the lifetime of everyone reading this thread.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#345

Post by breve »

wcoenen wrote: post #177
breve wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

This is not exactly new information[1]. You may have a point that it was not presented to customers this way though. [1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1382458022367162370

The lie is older than that:

https://web.archive.org/web/20161020091022/https://tesla.com...

https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/

The fact that lie is old only makes it worse that Musk, Karpathy, and Tesla generally have still not taken responsibility for the lie. They are still not willing to refund the money they took for something they did not deliver.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#346

Post by Veserv »

somanyphotons wrote: post #76
Imnimo wrote: post #68

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…

This is an amazing quote that really applies to all software development

Drawn from Karpathy killing a bunch of people by knowingly delivering defective autonomous driving software instead of applying basic engineering ethics and refusing to deploy the dangerous product he was in charge of.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#348

Post by sammyd56 »

reenorap wrote: post #86

Are "agents" just programs that call into an LLM and based on the response, it will do something?

An agent is just an LLM calling tools in a loop. If you're a "show me the code" type person like me, here's a worked example: https://samdobson.uk/posts/how-to-build-an-agent/

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#349

Post by chasd00 »

superconduct123 wrote: post #233

I always get a weird feeling when AI researchers and CS people start talking about comparisons between human brains and AI/computers Why is there a presumption that we (as people who have only studied CS) know enough about biology/neuroscience/evolution to make these comparisons/parallels/analogies? I enjoy the discussions but I always get the thought in the back of my head "...remember you're listening to 2 CS major…

> Why is there a presumption that we (as people who have only studied CS) know enough about biology/neuroscience/evolution to make these comparisons/parallels/analogies?

well it's straightforward. First lets assume a spherical, perfectly frictionless, brain..

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#350

Post by sarchertech »

rootusrootus wrote: post #242
sarchertech wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why just run 20 miles then?

Because then it wouldn't be a challenge and nobody would care about the achievement.

I’m curious do ultramarathoners feel the same way about the rest of the race past 20 miles?
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